We had yet another set of primaries yesterday in what is shaping up to be one of the most unusual midterms in recent memory. This was compounded yesterday with arguably the strangest election results we've seen in a while, and it was not in a primary contest at all. While we are still waiting on all of the results from yesterday (Arizona & Washington, two of the states that voted, are notoriously slow in counting their ballots and as a result a few key races remain upended), the biggest news of yesterday came out of the state of Kansas.
 |
| Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) |
The state of Kansas yesterday overwhelmingly voted "No" to removing abortion protections in the state. While the race had been under-surveyed, the polls we had seen showed that "Yes" was leading slightly, and this is Kansas, a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Herbert Hoover was president (seriously). The fact that Kansas not only voted to keep abortion rights, but did so by an almost 20-points, is one of the bigger surprises we've seen in politics in recent months, and it begs introspection. While it wasn't just pro-choice Democrats who backed the bill (Republicans did too), Democrats saw record turnout on the ballot in Kansas. For the first time in decades, the percentage of Democrats who voted in yesterday's primaries were higher than that in the Republican primaries, which didn't even happen in 2018 (and it's worth noting, there were no competitive primaries for the Democrats). That is gargantuan, and you can bet that Gov. Laura Kelly will be tracking those votes across the state as she attempts to win a second term against uphill odds.
The future, though, is slightly hazy. A lot more pressure will be put on movements in California, Kentucky, Montana, & Vermont, all of which have abortion initiatives for their state constitutions on the ballot in November. However, ballot initiatives are not always an indication of how a state will vote. In 2018, Missouri had an election where they rejected a right-to-work bill, but they also voted out Sen. Claire McCaskill (who also was against the right-to-work bill) in favor of Josh Hawley, who supported the bill. It's no guarantee that in a single issue ballot initiative that people will swing in the same way that they will in a partisan election. But after last night, Democrats, particularly in states like Nevada & New Hampshire (where abortion is considerably more popular than in Kansas), would be fools not to make abortion access central to their campaigns.
 |
| Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) |
In the state of Michigan, two incumbent members of the House lost their primaries, ending their career months before the finish line. The first was inevitable, with Rep. Andy Levin losing to Rep. Haley Stevens. Both second term House members were running in a blue district, though many (including yours truly) thought that Levin wasn't being a team player by not running in the open MI-10, where he might have had an outside chance against John James, who is now likely to win the seat. This contest was seen by some as a proxy battle between Hillary Clinton (who endorsed Stevens) and Bernie Sanders (who endorsed Levin)...like in 2016, Clinton ended up the victor in the Michigan district. The 39-year-old Stevens now sets herself up for a potential statewide run later this decade.
Rep. Peter Meijer also lost. The first-term incumbent became well-known for backing the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump after the terrorist attacks on the Capitol on January 6th. Meijer's loss was accentuated by an ad the DCCC ran linking his opponent, John Gibbs, to Donald Trump (he worked in his administration and is an election denier). I will say, pretty plainly, that A) the DCCC ad likely didn't move the needle as Meijer was almost certain to lose regardless and B) all the handwringing pundits and Democrats who debated over whether this is appropriate need to grow up. Meijer is a very conservative Republican who just happened to vote for impeachment. He's better than Gibbs, but this is a Biden +9 district that Democrat Hillary Scholten will start off with a huge advantage in...Democrats can't just run in districts represented by the Marjorie Taylor Greene's...they have to beat the Peter Meijer's as well in order to get a House majority.
 |
| Blake Masters (R-AZ) |
In Arizona, Republicans got their final piece of the Senate puzzle when Blake Masters won a crowded primary to take on freshman Sen. Mark Kelly (D). Masters was endorsed by both Donald Trump and billionaire financier Peter Thiel, whom Masters used to work for. Masters has been slightly behind in the polls, and Democrats in the Grand Canyon State are hoping to keep it that way. It is likely that Kelly is going to use Masters' unusual beliefs, particularly around World War II (he has written papers approvingly quoting Nazis and stating that the US shouldn't have entered either world war) against him. Masters is one of four first-time candidates (along with Mehmet Oz, JD Vance, & Herschel Walker) running for major Senate races this year. While first-time candidates can sometimes win (Ron Johnson, Elizabeth Warren, & Ted Cruz are good examples), generally this is a risky bet and all four seem to be underperforming where you'd expect their races to be. If Democrats win any or all of these contests, Trump's endorsements of all four candidates are going to be seriously questioned, particularly by Mitch McConnell looking ahead to 2024 (if 3-4 of these candidates lose, it's hard to imagine a world where McConnell doesn't get two more years in the minority).
 |
| Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R-MO) |
The one piece of good news for McConnell last night was in Missouri. Attorney General Eric Schmitt pulled off a victory that just a month ago looked unlikely, and will cruise to an easy win in the open Senate race here in November. Schmitt was facing a host of other candidates, including Reps. Vicky Hartzler & Billy Long, as well as former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned from office as a result of sexual assault allegations from his former mistress. Greitens' candidacy was seen by some as a potential avenue for Democrats to win in the very red state, but I always thought that was a pipe dream, and while I disagree with Schmitt on everything, Greitens being around 99 other senators feels like a worse situation. It's worth noting that a last-minute endorsement from Donald Trump where he endorsed "Eric" (implying that he was endorsing both Schmitt & Greitens...he seemed most concerned with defeating Hartzler for reasons unknown) showed that Trump didn't want to risk a high-profile last minute loss here, though he did technically get a victory in that an Eric won.
 |
| Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) |
Even into Wednesday night, Arizona & Washington were still waiting on a number of key contests. In Arizona, the biggest question mark was in the governor's race, where former TV news anchor Kari Lake was leading slightly against State University System Regent Karrin Taylor Robson. This was a proxy battle between Donald Trump (who endorsed Lake) and incumbent-Gov. Doug Ducey (who backed Robson). Overall, Trump saw a lot of gains here, with his endorsed candidates for Senate, Secretary of State, & Attorney General all winning, so Lake's victory would be an additional feather in his cap. The question here is-will recent wins by Joe Biden, Kyrsten Sinema, & Mark Kelly show that Democrats can, in fact, continue to transform Arizona even in a red year, or will Republicans win even with extremist election deniers? Democrats went with Secretary of State Katie Hobbs for governor, and I suspect will quickly coalesce around their ticket in the next week once the contest for Secretary of State is finalized. Arizona is one of the most important states on the map come 2024, so there's an enormous amount of pressure on Hobbs, Kelly, & the rest of their ticket to continue to paint the state blue.
Washington's top-two system also leaves some questions over who will advance to the November general, though unlike Arizona & Michigan, election deniers do not appear poised to make many gains here. Though their races are still undecided, Reps. Dan Newhouse & Jaime Herrera Beutler both appear likely to advance to the general election despite voting to impeach Donald Trump in January 2021. Democrats got good news in other contests, where Sen. Patty Murray and Rep. Kim Schrier both will not just advance to the general election, but likely will do so with the wind at their backs. Murray is well north of 50% of the vote while Schrier is just over the margin (and combined with other Democrats in the race, will likely stay there). Given Democrats tend to outdo their primary quantities by a point or two in the general, both of these women (who have been tagged by pundits as being in competitive races) will now go into November as favorites.
No comments:
Post a Comment