It seems gauche to talk about politics at a time like this, except politics are probably the only way we eventually end the onslaught of gun violence that ravages every aspect of American life, so perhaps politics is exactly what we should talk about at a time like this. Last night, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, & Texas had their primaries. The biggest race of the night (when you look at November, or if you care about gun control legislation) was a foregone conclusion-both incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and former football star Herschell Walker easily won their primaries, setting up one of the marquee races in 2022 to see who will control the Senate majority come next year. Below, we'll talk through the primaries that did have some competition, in arguably the worst election night for Donald Trump since 2020.
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| Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) |
No Republican governor has quite sustained the ire of former President Donald Trump more than Brian Kemp. Kemp, while a very conservative Republican (arguably, given the swing nature of his state, the most conservative Republican governor in the country), did not try to use his office to stop Joe Biden from rightfully winning Georgia's electoral votes in 2020 when Biden got more votes than Donald Trump. This has caused Trump repeatedly going after Kemp, but that came to nothing as Trump's endorsee (former Senator David Perdue) suffered a humiliating defeat, losing by nearly 50-points just over a year after he was in a nail-biter Senate race (as an incumbent). Kemp's win shows that Trump is not just infallible, but that a Republican can stand up to the Big Lie and Trump & still win handily in a primary. Kemp now goes on to face House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams in the general election, a rematch of their race from 2018, but Abrams won't have as favorable of an environment as she did in 2018 and Kemp is coming off of a big victory...she'll have an uphill climb even with unlimited fundraising potential.
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| Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger (R-GA) |
Even more surprising, though, was incumbent Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger avoiding a runoff last night against Rep. Jody Hice, a Big Lie advocate. Raffensberger very publicly went against Trump when he tried to threaten Raffensberger to "find 11,780 votes" (likely breaking the law in the process...Merrick Garland, the clock is ticking on that one) so that Trump wouldn't suffer the humiliation of being the first Republican in a generation to lose Georgia (spoiler alert: he was). Georgia allows crossover votes, which might have been how Raffensberger won. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published this morning that about 80,000 Democrats who voted in the 2020 primaries voted as Republicans here, potentially giving Raffensberger (who, while conservative, clearly is honorable in ensuring that the winner of an election actually wins) enough cover from the right to avoid his runoff. This is a rare maneuver, but it has precedent, most notably in 2014 when Sen. Thad Cochran won a tight runoff against State Rep. Chris McDaniel largely by getting Black Democrats to support his campaign in the runoff. Democrats did end up in a runoff, though State Rep. Bee Nguyen is the heavy favorite to be the nominee, though like Kemp/Abrams, the Republican is currently favored for this race.
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| Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) |
In the first member vs. member primary for the Democrats, Rep. Lucy McBath defeated Rep. Carolyn Boudreaux by a sizable margin. Boudreaux was the only Democrat in 2020 to flip a seat without the help of redistricting, but Georgia Republicans heavily gerrymandered the Atlanta suburbs to ensure only one of these women would be able to stay in the House come January. McBath, who rose to prominence as the mother of a gun violence victim, will easily win reelection in November given that her once swingy district is now heavily blue. It is possible beyond the confines of 2022 that Republicans may have created a dummymander in the Atlanta suburbs, given the huge population boom in the area (and the way that it has increasingly turned bluer in every election since Hillary Clinton started a transformation there in 2016).
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| Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) |
Rep. Mo Brooks has had an insane ride the past few months. Starting the Alabama Republican Primary as the frontrunner, he earned former President Donald Trump's support quickly, but his regressive politics and connections to January 6th made him a subtle target for establishment Republicans, particularly outgoing Senator Richard Shelby, who has wholeheartedly endorsed his former Chief of Staff Katie Britt. Trump, after seeing Brooks' campaign start to sink, pulled his endorsement and gave his endorsement to Britt, and many wondered if that would be enough to capsize Britt's campaign, or at least keep Brooks from reaching second place for a runoff. Last night, Britt was unable to hit the requisite 50%, and Brooks outmaneuvered Army veteran Mike Durant, so the two will face off in June in a runoff. Given Britt's support from virtually every major Republican in the country, it's doubtful that Brooks can continue this upset train, but last night he kept his hopes alive for at least a few more weeks.
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| Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) |
In a night that was supposed to have a lot of close calls, only one major race seemed to be a question mark this morning. In Texas's 28th congressional district, Rep. Henry Cuellar had declared victory in what would surely be a recount against progressive Jessica Cisneros, who two years ago nearly beat Cuellar by a similar margin. The closeness of this race is underlined by the weird gerrymandering of the district, which includes parts of the Rio Grande Valley (which have historically favored conservative Democrats like Cuellar) as well as the San Antonio suburbs over 150 miles away (where Cisneros' base is). Cuellar, the only anti-choice Democrat in the House with a perfect NRA rating, had been heavily attacked for his views on progressive politics, though in a region that saw huge shifts to Donald Trump, it remains to be seen if either of these candidates (when they eventually have a victor) can hold off a red wave in a rapidly changing region.
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