Women and the 2022 Senate Races

Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA)

Democrats for weeks have been super excited about the prospect of Rep. Tim Ryan running (finally) for the open Senate seat in Ohio.  Ryan's announcement is one of several in the past few weeks that have been focused on the 2022 races, as the cash hauls that people need to win competitive statewide races become gargantuan (late-breaking candidates don't stand a chance).  State Sen. Jeff Jackson has entered the contest in North Carolina, and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has gotten into the race in Pennsylvania (with Rep. Conor Lamb seeming to be leaning in that direction).  Rep. Charlie Crist is mulling some sort of comeback, though it's possible he won't enter the Senate race (and instead go for his old spot at governor, though this time as a Democrat), while Wisconsin Democrats are getting excited about the prospects of Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes taking on Sen. Ron Johnson.  All of these candidacies are worth taking note-the battle for the Senate will run through these five states (and unless Chuck Grassley retires, these are the only plausible pickup opportunities for the Democrats next year), but the conversation around them has me wondering if Democrats are fitting the demographic that they need the greatest turnout from in 2022 in order to take any of these contests: where, exactly, are the women?

There are, of course, women being considered for all five of these seats, and it would be glib to dismiss them.  In Pennsylvania, Reps. Chrissy Houlahan & Madeleine Dean are both looking into races to succeed Pat Toomey.  State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski is apparently interested in a run in Wisconsin.  Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has been looking at either a bid for governor or senator in 2022 in Ohio, while former Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley has her eye on a run in North Carolina.  And of course in Florida, the list looking at a race against Sen. Marco Rubio is long, and includes Reps. Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.  

Rep. Val Demings (D-FL)

All of these women are serious candidates, challengers that should be taken seriously.  But with the exception of Florida, none of them are even slight frontrunners for their nominations, and it's unusual how quickly the grassroots has rallied behind certain male candidates, and perhaps a bit eyebrow-raising.  I went into a conversation online on a political website, and brought up how Dean had proven herself quite impressively during the Impeachment Trial, and would be a formidable option for Pennsylvania.  I was quickly shouted down that "it's Fetterman's turn" even though Fetterman lost his last Senate bid (Dean's never been on the ballot statewide).  Whaley has clearly been told to get-out-of-the-way against Ryan, and while she isn't in as high of an office, Dayton Mayor is not a small position, and it's not like Ryan has a magic touch statewide that we know about (he's spent most of the past twenty years turning down statewide races, in fact, and seems most interested in this seat because he's about to be gerrymandered).

I don't mean to belittle these male candidates, many of whom could win these seats, but to maybe question our assumptions here.  A year after all of the freshmen Democratic senators were men, it feels like Democrats have something of amnesia about who can win tight races, despite the fact that all four of our pickups in 2016/18 were from female candidates.  And there's not a lot of places that we can bet on adding more Democratic women to the Senate if we don't look at these five seats.  No incumbent Democrat seems particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge (and none have earned one by my measure), and with the exception of Sen. Pat Leahy, there doesn't appear to be any plausible retirement options unless something unexpected happens (and even Leahy is no guarantee).  As a result, Democrats risk in rallying too quickly the prospect that they will have no women running for open or plausible pickup seats in 2022.

Mayor Nan Whaley (D-OH)

I notice when I bring stuff like this up online I get a series of "the best candidates should win" from a bunch of posters (most of them male-identified), but I think there's something wrong if we assume all of the male candidates are better or early frontrunners.  Fetterman & Crist have lost statewide...they might be great candidates, but that doesn't negate the fact that on-paper they aren't in much better shape than Dean or Demings.  And it shouldn't sit well with you (it certainly doesn't to me) that we might have a Senate cycle where there are no plausible women who could join the Senate as freshman for the Democrats.  We are never going to be able to have a more diverse Congress that is representative of all of America if we aren't putting forward candidates for seats that represent that diversity.

The cycle is young.  It's possible that some of these women I've name-checked will not just be nominees for these seats, but potentially win the seats and become senators.  But I caution anyone that is announcing frontrunners this early that if you are only listing men on your "preferred/favorite candidates list," it might be time to check yourself, and wonder why that is.