 |
| Jaime Harrison, likely the next DNC Chair |
I have stated on here a couple of times my disappointment with the DNC, from the tenure of Debbie Wasserman Schultz (which was an abject disaster) even through the end of last year. The DNC under current Chairman Tom Perez can boast they won back the White House & both houses of Congress-this is a big deal, and it would be specious of me to insinuate the DNC had no part in this success. They pulled off a difficult virtual convention in 2020 (which looked all the more impressive when you compared it to the dumpster fire the Republicans pulled together), and flipped five states in the 2020 November presidential election.
But the DNC deserves the criticism that have been levied at it by myself and others. Its fundraising apparatus is poor-it is regularly out-raised by the RNC, and frequently does not provide enough leadership & cash flow to state parties. We saw that in 2020 when candidates (like Harrison) in unwinnable races got tens of millions of dollars & still lost while state legislatures in Minnesota, Arizona, Texas, & Kansas watched critical state legislative seats disappear, hurting the Democrats' hand in redistricting. The DNC also ran a shoddy primary process, with a horrific Iowa caucus (it says something truly terrible about the way it was run that I still have no confidence whether or not Pete Buttigieg actually beat Bernie Sanders if all of the votes were counted properly), and royally lucked out when Joe Biden got his South Carolina upset & they weren't saddled with infighting during the early stages of the Covid pandemic.
As a result, I don't think Harrison is the best choice here. His recent run for the Senate indicates that he has political ambitions, and the DNC has not done well with politicians running the body (again, Debbie Wasserman Schultz). I would've preferred a campaign organizer like Stephanie Schriock, whose success at Emily's List is what the DNC should aspire toward. But Harrison is the choice, and I thought it would be worth sharing today five things I hope he and the party achieve as he begins his tenure, as they are fixes & focuses the DNC needs to have as we approach the 2022 & 2024 elections that will now be on his watch.
 |
| House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-GA) |
The DNC lucked out in the late stages of the presidential campaign last year as it became something of a movement to get small-dollar donors into every pocket of the party, and in the case of the presidential race, joint fundraising with Joe Biden caused the DNC to actually beat the RNC in some quarters. This has not traditionally been the case, and indeed the DNC is usually the "Jan Brady" of the Democratic fundraising apparatus, always being dwarfed by the RNC. This leaves races on the table-the DNC is the best option for state parties to raise money, and to win local races. And Democrats need to start focusing on local races, as they arguably have the biggest potential for change. Look in recent years at which states had the most progressive reforms, and you see it's in places like Colorado or Virginia where the Democrats have made a concerted effort to win back the state legislatures.
Harrison was chosen in part due to his time as a former state chair, but mostly because he impressed so many with his fundraising abilities in 2020. The question for him is, and the biggest question about his tenure is-is this due to his opponent, or because he had an actual skill for fundraising? This happens-Beto O'Rourke raised a lot of money in part because he was running against Ted Cruz (his presidential race bears this out). Stacey Abrams, though, proved to be the real deal in 2020 when her FairFight became a force that won three key Georgia statewide elections (and won the White House & Senate). Harrison needs to prove he isn't just someone who can win the money game against a Republican pariah-he needs to show that he can do that when the opponent isn't clear, as early money & ground game are how the DNC can grow their brand (as we saw earlier this year in Georgia).
The way he's going to do this is by finding commonality between the progressive & mainstream wings of the party in terms of fairness. Harrison's role is unusual in that it's largely dictated not just by the successes of Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, & Chuck Schumer more than anything he does. If they make the brand popular, it's easier, if they make it harder, it's impossible. But there are things that Harrison can do (quickly) to make the elections seem fairer and invite less criticism from those who have stated that the DNC is not friendly to the progressive wing of the party.
First is to get rid of caucuses. Everyone needs to be on the same playing field, and that starts with getting rid of the undemocratic caucus system. I think he should also push Biden (in whatever capacity he can) to make an elections reform bill to expand early voting & enable easier registration, and to have the DNC push for as many Democrats to vote in primaries as possible. I think he should make a concerted effort as the presidential primaries approach to be as upfront about qualifications for the debates as possible, and I think he should raise the bar early. It's ridiculous that we had someone like Marianne Williamson make it with almost no support in the primary on the same stage as Elizabeth Warren & Joe Biden. I think this will ultimately give time to the serious candidates, including serious progressive candidates like Sanders & Warren early. If the DNC is skeptical of their chances (this seems apparent even if they won't admit it outwardly), they can exhibit that skepticism through a sharpened lens on their candidacies; the less candidates that are being given plum primary assignments, the more the media will focus in on them. If the media is right, a vigilant media will make the argument for them. This accomplishes the goal of fairness, while not also inviting a situation where you've got two dozen candidates on a stage when only 4-5 of them have any hope of winning a primary state.
 |
| Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) & Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) |
This is not just on Harrison, but on the party in general (as is #4 on this list). In 2020, the Democrats got too ambitious, and it showed in the results. Money is a finite thing, and it can only do so much good (particularly if you aren't pushing a good ground game, which they weren't able to do with Covid). In 2022, the focus from a congressional standpoint will be to find as many seats that are actually capable of flipping, and give less oxygen to races that they have no chance of winning (which, sorry, was clearly the case with Harrison's bid against Lindsey Graham). The maxim that "we made them spend money they would've spent elsewhere" isn't really true when you get swamped in every race that's draining the funds, and you leave winnable seats on the table in the process.
This should be pretty apparent for the House once lines have been drawn. The House will be a difficult hold, but I maintain it's a possible hold in the era of "no ticket-splitting." Democrats are going to lose and gain seats due to redistricting, and certain seats that are currently competitive (like Nebraska-2 or Florida-27) will surely be less so after the election. It's probable that the House will come down to maybe 20 or so obviously competitive seats in November 2022, and so the Democrats need to be prepared for this by focusing exclusively on them, rather than getting caught up in pie-in-the-sky races (that are never winnable in a midterm where you hold the White House, so pursue the easiest path as it's probably the only path).
The Senate is even easier to gain focus. Unless the Republicans have a surprise loss in a primary in Ohio or Iowa, there are four seats that the Democrats have any hope of picking up (WI/PA/NC/FL) and four seats the Democrats need to hold (NV/GA/NH/AZ). The Democrats need to do well in 2022-winning the majority by 50/50 won't cut it because there are too many opportunities for the Republicans in 2024 & essentially that would mean the Democrats might not have a shot at the majority for the rest of the decade if they can't clean up next year. My gut says the Senate is gone in 2024 if the Democrats can't win seven of these eight seats, and that will require extremely strong local parties trying to get turnout in a problematic midterm. Harrison needs to be ready to fundraise but also to train these eight states on how to turnout apathetic voters.
4. Buck History in the Gubernatorial Races
The Democrats in 2018 netted seven governor's mansions, which is a huge win-no doubt about it. But in 2022, while the Senate is prime territory if the Democrats can have a good night, the governor's races offer up a lot of potential. In 2018, Democrats lost five states by less-than 5-points (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, South Dakota, & Ohio), and we don't want to be once again on the losing side of close elections. This will require a few different skill sets for Harrison and state party chairs, as not all of the gubernatorial campaigns in 2022 will look the same.
Democrats need to be prepared to defend incumbent Democrats in Midwestern states who will have to deal with a campaign about how they handled Covid/the economy (Michigan, Wisconsin, & Minnesota), as well as an open race in super swing-y Pennsylvania. They have one ruby red state that will be difficult to hold (Kansas), and there are six New England states that oftentimes flirt with Republican governors that should not be taken for granted. The Republicans also have an open seat in Arizona (which, if the Democrats won it, would be a sign the state is more "Virginia" than "North Carolina"), and incumbent governors in Ohio, Georgia, & Texas who could be vulnerable to primary challenges. Throw in that always tight Florida has a race, and that we're looking at several states that could dominate fundraising, hurting other contests (Stacey Abrams will fundraise $10 million the first 48 hours after she announces her candidacy), and Democrats have a wide field with a lot of different factors, and they need to sort out the opportunities from the dead ends, and make sure only the former get money/attention.
 |
| President-Elect Joe Biden (D-DE) |
Harrison's biggest challenge as DNC Chair is one he won't face for several years. Joe Biden has not indicated whether or not he will be a one-term president or not; I suspect he doesn't know, and he's unlikely to tell us until after the 2022 midterms. But given his advanced age, it's possible that we will have an open race in 2024. One of the bigger questions then will be what Harrison does to keep an open field feeling fair, and not alienating the party even though they have an obvious frontrunner (Vice President Harris), one that Biden could well endorse in the race. This is something that will be difficult to manage, particularly if tensions between the progressive wing & the Biden administration escalate in the next four years. Some of the groundwork I mentioned above (eliminating caucuses now, addressing the primary schedule prior to Biden's announcement) will help, but this is a position that the Democratic Party hasn't been in since 1968, where it's unclear whether a president who legally can pursue reelection will pursue it. Harrison's tenure will largely be measured on if he is able to win the 2024 presidential race, and he has to plan for both a contested and uncontested race in his calculations.
No comments:
Post a Comment