Trump, McConnell, & the Destructive War for the Senate Majority

Outgoing President Donald Trump (R-FL)

I did say earlier this week that I'd largely be abandoning political articles unless I felt the need to chime in on something (at least until Biden becomes president or we hear more from what his cabinet selections will be).  However, as the news is being dominated by conversations about the behavior of Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, and Mitch McConnell in the closing days of the campaign, I wanted to weigh in with my two cents on what is and isn't happening.

Essentially what we are seeing from Trump and some of his Republican cohorts (not just these two, though they've been two of the loudest & most important figures on this front) is a movement to delegitimize the election results.  Trump has claimed massive voter fraud across multiple states with no evidence of it.  The Republicans appear to be catering to him, with Pompeo stating that he "intends to work to ensure a smooth handoff into a second Trump administration," something that some journalists chalked up as a joke, but clearly wasn't if you looked at the clip.  This behavior flies in the fact of all evidence, because it is apparent that Joe Biden not only has won 270 electoral college votes, he's won them with states to spare, and therefore is the legal-and-rightful President-Elect.

There are a few things that we should state, but the first I want to tell you is that I don't think this is going a lot of places, and that's because the ramifications of this action would be too vast to comprehend.  Some would argue that there are legal maneuverings that Trump could consider (specifically trying to pressure Republican state legislatures in places like Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia to contest which electors go to the electoral college), but these legislatures seem disinclined to do this, and there's a reason for that: it would be the end of the Republic.  In the Trump years, it's been easy to confuse hyperbole with reality because so often hyperbole mirrored reality, but let me be clear here-Trump holding power past January 20th at this point would be the end of democracy.  

There is no evidence of voter fraud, and while there are still two states where Biden leads but are not technically "called" or could go to a recount (Arizona & Georgia), Biden doesn't need those states to be elected the next president, though if the final counts state that he's won them (and they surely will), he's entitled to their electors.  As a result, Biden must be president in order for democracy to function.  Were he not to be president, it's likely that not only would America cease to function as a Republic, but it would also lead to mass unrest, probable civil war, and secession of states like New York, California, & Massachusetts from the Union as a reaction to not wanting to live under a man who did not legally win the election.  This would cause economic collapse, and while the Republican Party has shown little interest in preserving democracy over the past four years, they have definitely cared about their bank accounts, and so I don't think they're willing to cross this bridge.

But what it's also doing is undermining Joe Biden, and setting the groundwork for further erosion of electoral and democratic norms.  It's true that in 2020 the margin is too large for Trump to try to pull this, but imagine a situation where he'd gotten clear victories in Georgia & Arizona, and didn't have to get through their state legislatures, instead relying upon either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or one singular state to get to this point-it's easier to see him trying these shenanigans successfully, which is scary & considering Pompeo & McConnell are bordering on sedition against the President-Elect, something we should worry is a future possibility.  One of the main things that I hope for from the Biden administration, even if it might not be politically advantageous, is that figures who illegally enabled Trump (not through word, but through deed such as Louis DeJoy's actions at the USPS) are held accountable to their actions in a court-of-law.  We cannot live in a democracy if people can break that democracy's laws without punishment, even if it is not a good color to lock up the prior administration's officials.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

What is really going on here, though, is that Mitch McConnell in particular is concerned that he did not win his Senate majority outright.  There are two things in the world McConnell cares about: judicial appointments and a Senate majority.  Despite four years of shredding Senate norms in order to hold judicial power, McConnell seems on the verge of getting both of these things in 2021, due to the poor coattails of Joe Biden in Maine & Chuck Schumer's incompetence in playing a wide field badly in three consecutive cycles (I cannot get over how the Democrats reelected a man who has no idea how to win a majority, but I've talked about that enough this week).  

However, McConnell cannot win that majority without two seats in Georgia, and so his sights are laser-focused on Georgia, which is a state that probably went for Joe Biden, but by a microscopic margin.  As a result, the January 5th runoffs will be a base turnout operation, and McConnell cannot risk angering Trump & his base by embracing Joe Biden too quickly.  This is why Georgia Sens. Kelly Loeffler & David Perdue have both called on the Republican Secretary of State to resign, despite him doing his job & having no signs of fraud in favor of Joe Biden.  McConnell is still petrified that Trump will see any signs trying to derail his quixotic attempts to gain a second term as betrayal, and Trump (and his most loyal associates) know that the only ace he has left to play against McConnell would be to tell his supporters that "elections don't matter" or "McConnell/Perdue/Loeffler betrayed me-don't vote for them."

This is a risky game for a variety of reasons.  Obviously, it puts untold damage on the Republic just for two Senate seats that would likely be easy buckets for the Republicans if everyone had just proceeded like normal (Georgia Democrats are terrible at turning out for runoff elections).  But it's obvious to anyone with two brain cells that this is damaging the country & our democracy to not acknowledge the will-of-the-people when it's apparent.  The question I don't know the answer to is what is McConnell's game plan with these two Senate seats.

The reason this is a question is that this charade can't continue.  My gut says that McConnell, a man of great intelligence and no morality, is betting on the protracted legal battle not actually overturning the election results, but creating enough doubts that Trump voters will want revenge, and will turn out in full force on January 5th to put a check on President-Elect Biden; this is a pretty logical bet.  But he has two wild cards in that wager.  The first is that this is now nationalizing turnout for an election in a state that Joe Biden has just won, even if narrowly.  The more that the election feels like a referendum on Donald Trump rather than the country's future, the likelier it is that those Biden supporters turnout and support the two Democrats (Jon Ossoff & Raphael Warnock), seeing McConnell as an extension of Trump.  So far Senate Democrats have not successfully linked the two (otherwise they wouldn't have lost Maine), and I don't know if the Georgia Democrats are capable of seeing that (so far, they just keep talking about healthcare when there are clearly better ways to spur turnout right now), but the longer this is in the news, the better the turnout will be...and we saw last Tuesday what happens when Georgia has massive turnout-the Democrats win.

The second and more pressing issue is by linking his arms so closely to Trump, he is risking Trump pulling him under.  By January 5th, the certifications in these close states will be done and the electoral college will have voted; even the most far-fetched of paths for Donald Trump will be closed.  Donald Trump has proven in the past week that he is incapable of accepting defeat, that he is responsible for his defeat.  Trump could blame Democrats for his loss, potentially helping with R turnout, but it's not out-of-the-question that he blames his own party for not supporting him hard enough.  Any attacks Trump makes on McConnell, Perdue, or Loeffler prior to January 5th would dampen turnout.  How much is anyone's guess (eventually, since he'll be out-of-office, Trump's hold on the party will diminish, though I'd guess on January 5th it'll still be iron), but that gives Trump an opening.  McConnell has spent four years manipulating Trump, almost always to his advantage, and I don't know that this last moment, when the Kentucky senator is so close to having everything he's worked for come to fruition, will be any different.  But it's a risky game, and obviously something that is meant to fracture the Republic (though McConnell's sights are only on himself & his own power).