November Oscar Predictions: Screenplays, Animated Feature, and Foreign Film

While yesterday we covered all of the “glamour” categories, there’s multiple other categories that are worth the time and investment of viewers, and I’m not about to neglect them just because they don’t have names like Blanchett and Hanks and Scorsese attached to them.  I will note that I will skip the Doc and Short categories, which also get the short shift in our OVP write-ups (they just are such products of their times and are so hard to get a hold of!), but you have my solemn vow that we will at least discuss them once we get a little closer (likely before the actual ceremony but after we have the nominees).  However, we’ve got more categories to tackle…

Original Screenplay

First things first-with the ten-wide Best Picture race, the screenplay races have become oddly indicative of what will be nominated for Best Picture, or perhaps there’s just a coattails effect, but whatever the case, the Best Picture nominees get nominated for writing.  With that said, I cannot fathom American Hustle (especially with Russell himself as a co-writer) or Blue Jasmine (Woody, Vicky Cristina oddly aside, nearly always makes it) missing here.  I also think that we’re in for Inside Llewyn Davis, as the Coen Brothers are big favorites here and if their film can land a Best Picture nod they’ll probably score one in this race as well.

The final two slots seem to be headed toward a handful of films.  My other predicted Best Picture nominee, Gravity, could be amongst the contenders though it’s not really a “writer’s” film and as Titanic and Avatar have proven, a Best Picture nomination for a visual feast doesn’t guarantee a writing nomination.  Saving Mr. Banks has steadily growing buzz (perhaps it’s a crowdpleaser I’m underestimating), but I just don’t see it quite yet.  Therefore, I’m going to go with Nebraska, which isn’t written by Alexander Payne (otherwise it’d be a sure thing), but has the vibe of a film he wrote and Dallas Buyers Club, which is currently in ninth place in my Best Picture lineup and has that “sturdy drama” look that films like Flight or Margin Call have ridden to fifth place nominations for writing.

Predicted Nominees: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska

Probably in Sixth Place: Gravity (it’s going to get a LOT of nominations)

Oddly No One Is Talking About: Speaking of Margin Call, JC Chandor recently got a somewhat surprising nomination for Margin Call-could All is Lost get him a second surprise?

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Until one of these films starts to break out a bit more, the only one that seems like a “winner” is Russell for Hustle, which seems about right considering he’s poised to win an Oscar at this rate.

Adapted Screenplay

It should be noted that the Oscars are odd with sequels and biopics, so some of these could translate over to Original and Dallas Buyers Club or Saving Mr. Banks could make their way into this category.  Either way, though, this is a smaller category than you’d think, considering how robust this race usually is with potential winners.

The obvious frontrunner is Twelve Years a Slave, which is written by the director (who could very well end up with three Oscars when all is said and done with this upcoming year).  I’d also be a fool to not include August Osage County (prestigious source material and Doubt also made it) and Captain Phillips (sturdy drama and strong contender in the Best Picture race).  My final Best Picture nominee is Wolf of Wall Street-I say it also makes it in, but this is the least likely of the Best Picture predictions and if it doesn’t hit well it could also be cut here (Scorsese doesn’t stick with writers and therefore there isn’t a history here).

The final slot is a tough, tough call.  There are a few smaller contenders in the mix, and a lot of people seem to assume the final slot will go to Before Midnight.  This film series did get a surprise nomination in 2004, but it’s not like this is a totally beloved series with the Academy that set the box office on fire.  Short-Term 12 also has its supporters (myself amongst them), but this is a tiny, tiny film that has no heat anywhere.  Philomena and Labor Day are both the solid sorts of pictures that the Academy sometimes fills out this category with, and if Secret Life of Walter Mitty is a hit this could happen.

However, the writing awards regularly go with foreign language films, and I just cannot shake the idea that Blue is the Warmest Color, a film I enjoyed more than I thought I would and that sticks with you longer than you’d think, won’t somehow manage to get a nomination.  A Separation recently proved that Oscar hasn’t lost its taste for nominating foreign language movies in this race, and I think we’ll see this film in the running.

Predicted Nominees: August Osage County, Blue is the Warmest Color, Captain Phillips, Twelve Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Probably in Sixth Place: Before Midnight

Oddly No One is Talking About: The Spectacular Now is in the same vein as Perks of Being a Wallflower which missed last year but did get in with the WGA Awards, a typically strong precursor.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Twelve Years a Slave, for sure

Animated Feature Film

A lot has been written about how terrible this lineup looks, and how, despite having enough contenders to qualify as five-wide, the category won’t go there and will stick to three.  However, I find that this rarely happens outside of the Song branch (looking out for its own self-interest, a branch wants to recognize as many contenders as possible), and so I’ll predict five (I’ll point out which ones I’d cut if it goes to three).

The one surefire nominee of the bunch is Frozen, the latest Disney Princess contender who is gaining strong reviews and has a lot of pedigree in its musical theater cast.  If you discount Pixar, Disney hasn’t gained a trophy before, and so this seems like the perfect time to break that trend.  The other contender who seems likely (though not nearly as assured) would probably be The Wind Rises.  Hayao Miyazaki’s last film has courted controversy with its subject matter, but this titan of the industry will not be denied easily, and will almost certainly score a final shot at this trophy.

The other three are a mix of box office and critical acclaim.  I wasn’t enthused at all by Monsters University, but Pixar has only once missed out on a nomination in this category (and won a surprisingly tight race last year, proving that the branch still worships them), so I think they’re in (and those three would probably be my contenders if they limit the number of nominees).  Despicable Me 2 made even more money, but the first film didn’t make it and the second film isn’t nearly as good, so I’m going to lean on the no side for now, though that giant pile of gold it raked in will surely result in a nod from HFPA, which should help the cause.  Oddly, The Croods, a film few remember from the beginning of the year and many thought would be forgotten by now, appears on-track with a strong push from Dreamworks, and will probably make the race.

Finally, I think that the branch will probably go with GKids for the final slot, as they seem like a solid “fifth slot” when the branch is struggling to find a final nomination.  If they just go with one, Ernest and Celestine, which has gotten most of the press and love so far, is the better shot than A Letter to Momo, though if Monsters or Croods falter, Momo could be our truly surprise entry.

Predicted Nominees: The Croods, Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, Monsters University, The Wind Rises

Probably in Sixth Place: Despicable Me 2 (thanks to rules surrounding the Globes and foreign films, The Wind Rises won’t be eligible there, assuring Universal gets in at the most significant precursor)

Oddly No One is Talking About: In a field this weak, all of the serious contenders are being discussed.  Epic could be a very outside shot considering Chris Wedge’s solid history at the Oscars (he won in 1999 for Animated Short and got a nomination in this category in 2002 for Ice Age), but that’s about it.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: If he’d never won before, I’d say The Wind Rises, but considering Miyazaki got in for Spirited Away, I’ll go with Frozen.

Foreign Film

Trying to predict what’s going to happen in this category with the shortlisted nine already announced is a challenge.  Without it is darn near impossible, but who doesn’t love the impossible (well, I didn't, but that's not really what I meant)?

Every year at least one major contender gets thrown, but it’s hard to see Gloria (Chile), Wadjda (Saudi Arabia), and The Hunt (Denmark) not being amongst the nominees.  All three have gained solid international press, and in Wadjda’s case, a fairly sizable release schedule (the press surrounding Saudi Arabia getting its first nomination would be pretty impressive as well).  Iran’s The Past has a pair of big names associated (recent Oscar winner Asgar Farhadi and recent Oscar nominee Berenice Bejo), so that could mean a nomination as well, though something tells me this could be the surprise exclusion of the year.

For the final slot, it’s worth looking at Oscar’s favorite countries: Israel’s Bethlehem, France’s Renoir (still a fairly controversial pick, but one that could result in a nomination as they love France), Germany’s Two Lives, Italy’s The Great Beauty, and Canada’s Gabrielle.  I’m going to go with…Israel for my final guess, just because they’ve been so on-track for a win lately.

Predicted Nominees: Bethlehem, Gloria, The Hunt, The Past, Wadjda

Probably in Sixth Place: Who knows-The Great Beauty?

Oddly No One is Talking About: The Broken Circle Breakdown, from Belgium, is getting a fairly comprehensive art house release (I always think that when it makes it to Minneapolis instead of just the Angelika)-could it be a surprise inclusion at least on the shortlist?

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Wadjda feels like a winner, doesn’t it?

And those are my thoughts on these four categories-tomorrow we head into the visual categories!