Ranting On...Firing Kathleen Sebelius

Secretary of HHS Kathleen Sebelius

As I wrote about last week (in a post very few of you read, so I’m not sure why I’m doing a follow-up-maybe it’s all of The Daily Show jokes), the Obama administration is dealing with a potential catastrophe with the healthcare.gov launch.  Democrats and Republicans alike are deriding the administration on the launch of the rollout. Earlier this week, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) became the first Democrat in Congress to ask for an extension on the enrollment period.  Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY)  and Rick Nolan (D-MN) have stated they want “someone fired” over the situation.

Amidst the swirl, the Republican Party has been calling on Kathleen Sebelius, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, to resign for the failed launch of the program.  Everyone from Rep. Paul Ryan to Sebelius’s home state senator Pat Roberts has been calling on Sebelius to resign.  So, my question here is-would it be a good idea?

It wasn’t long ago that Sebelius’s political future was far, far rosier.  The 65-year-old first ran successfully for the Kansas State House, and served there for eight years, before doing the impossible in 1994: during the Republican landslides, she was the only Democrat to beat an incumbent Republican statewide, in dark red Kansas by an astronomical 17-point margin).  That sort of political skill is not to be ignored, and after two terms as Insurance Commissioner, she went on to be governor for six years (winning by healthy margins both times).  Sebelius was mentioned in passing as a running mate for John Kerry and fairly heavily in 2008 for Barack Obama (she was an early endorser of the president, and many people thought it would be wise if he went with a governor).  Though she was passed over for Joe Biden, she did successfully get appointed to her current job as HHS Secretary, and has become one of the most public faces of the Obama administration, due both to her national profile as a former governor and for the ACA’s status as President Obama’s signature legislative achievement.

This is all to say that, regardless of this debacle, Sebelius is not a politician you lightly toss aside.  She’s one of the most prominent members of the Democratic Party, and has her steadfast supporters.  The question becomes what would happen if someone as high profile as Sebelius were to be fired and what would be gained or lost from a purely political point-of-view.  The reason I say from a purely political point-of-view as this isn’t a case where firing Sebelius will result in a better website or a better health-care law.  From a purely tactical standpoint, Sebelius and her team is aware of the issue, working to correct the issue, and few would argue that you could find someone who is more of an expert on the healthcare law than the current HHS Secretary.

A politically-based firing is supposed to do two things in order to be successful: first, it needs to appease the media and the opposition about the problems that have resulted, and second, it needs to provide cover for red-state Democrats who will have to explain to their constituents why something went wrong.  If you’ve just read that last sentence and have spent more than five seconds listening to the news, you’ll know where I’m going to land with this, but let’s not spoil the surprise just yet.

The media, in the form of people like Ezra Klein and Jon Stewart, have eviscerated the Obama administration over the failed launch of healthcare.gov, and with good reason-there’s absolutely no excuse for a website launch this gargantuan and important for the Democratic Party and for the President personally to have failed so spectacularly and in such a public way.  The media likely would let up were Sebelius (or another high-profile figure) to be fired, that’s true.  It would give them a chance to reframe the narrative a bit, provided that the firing were coupled with the website and the system working wonderfully.

The opposition, though, would only be fueled by firing Sebelius.  This would make Sebelius, one of Obama’s most well-known cabinet members, the poster child for Obamacare and for its “failure.”  Think of what would have happened if the President would have fired Erik Holder (Fast & Furious) or Hillary Clinton (Benghazi) when the Republicans were asking for their resignations.  The story would have gotten larger, there would have been a public face on the scandal, and the Republicans would have smelt blood in the water.  If the past four years have taught us anything as Democrats, it’s that the Republicans don’t give up just because something is no longer being discussed by the media or is still an issue or even makes sense.  The Republicans would use Sebelius’s resignation as a platform for their entire 2014 campaign against the healthcare law.  While, considering its improving public opinion numbers, that might sound mildly attractive to Democrats, it still doesn’t make sense to risk it.

Additionally, Sebelius leaving office means that the Republicans would put her nominee through a nearly impossible ringer, and we’d be almost certain to not have an administrator in the position until at least 2015, if not 2017.  Think of how long it took them to get Richard Cordray appointed to the Consumer Financial Bureau, and the vitriol over the ACA is even stronger.  The confirmation hearings would become front-page news, and would keep the website’s issues (which hopefully will be over soon) in the news for a year rather than just a couple more weeks.

Lastly, Sebelius’s resignation wouldn’t help people like Mark Pryor or Mary Landrieu who have red state electorates who may not be as strong of advocates for the healthcare law.  One of the most absolute truths that no one really talks about (Chris Cillizza regularly lists “signs you’re losing” on his site, but this is one he oddly misses) is that if you’re trying to pretend to be a member of the other party, you’re losing your election.  Democrats and Republicans who run as moderates or independents are one thing, but if you start running away from a president or congressional leader of your own party, then you’re losing.  Pryor, Landrieu, and other red-state Democrats (regardless of whether they voted for the law) cannot outrun the Republicans trying to tie them to the ACA.  Their best shot is to hope the public moves onto another issue or that the law continues to become more popular.  Firing Sebelius is not going to get them there.