Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

It’s that time of year again, the time of year where Lady Emmy opens her golden wings and bestows upon a myriad of television personalities (likely the same personalities as last year) a statue and a 45-second speech.  The Emmy Awards, because of their repetitive nature, and the fact that I cannot possibly see all of the nominees (compare the maybe 100 hours it takes to see all of the Oscar nominees to the 22 it takes to see just one series and you’ll see what I mean) aren't in the same league for me as AMPAS's golden-abbed adonis, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to discuss the first letter in the EGOT.  I’m going to be separating this week’s Emmy festivities into three articles (including a very special guest star!), and because it’s the category that Emmy pundits consider the greatest, I’ll start with drama.

Drama Series

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards

Mad Men

Shows John Actually Watches: Game of Thrones, Mad Men

Shows John Wishes He Watched: Downton Abbey, but it’s been spoiled to death at this point for me

Shows John is Tired of Hearing About on Twitter: Breaking Bad

With the Emmy Awards, it’s always a solid bet to look at last year’s winner, which was Homeland (Mad Men has been victorious here before also), and despite what some pundits are saying, I think Homeland is closer than it seems-Emmy rarely crowns a show and just leaves it at that; usually, she needs to recognize the series multiple times.  Still, if the internet has anything to say about it, Breaking Bad, which is in the midst a juggernaut of buzz and support heading into the awards ceremony, likely will win this, and that’s my guess.

Drama-Lead Actor

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Actor John Likes the Most in General of this Bunch: Jon Hamm

Show I Really Should Get Around to Watching Because I’d Likely Love It: The Newsroom

Person I Just Realized Wasn’t Nominated: Steve Buscemi

Maybe I’m spoiled, I’m not sure.  After all, this is a considerably better lineup than Oscar produced last year and is admittedly a stronger lineup than Best Actress.  But I guess there’s a collective yawn here for me.  I probably should be watching Breaking Bad (Bryan Cranston is certain to win his fourth Emmy over Spacey and Lewis), which would get me more excited.  Maybe it’s because there was no surprise here-Daniels and Spacey are the newcomers, but you could hardly call either actor an ingénue.  Or I’m just being picky.

Drama-Lead Actress

Connie Britton, Nashville

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Person Who Is Most Ticked That They Gave Out 7 Nods and She Still Somehow Missed: Julianna Marguiles

Nomination I’m Most Excited About for a Show I Don’t Watch: Kerry Washington

For Some Reason I Cannot Explain Why I Stopped Watching: Connie Britton’s great turn on Nashville

I’m aware that the oddsmakers are betting on Claire Danes winning this trophy, and there’s so much evidence to back it up.  Homeland needs a big win somewhere, Danes won last year, and Emmy loves her.  It’s the common sense decision.  And yet, I cannot shake the thought that Kerry Washington will be honored.  Scandal is one of the few (very, very few) success stories in network television in the past year-a series that grew even further after its premiere season?  That’s something to celebrate, and though the networks ceded Drama long ago (only Britton, Washington, and Christine Baranski managed Drama nominations for a network show this year), this rare chance to honor a successful network drama may be too much to pass up.

Drama-Supporting Actor

Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad

Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Marry Me Please: Aaron Paul

I Gave Up This Show a While Ago, Who Is He Playing?: Bobby Cannavale

Every Other Character on My Show Somehow Gets Nominated But Me: Vincent Kartheiser, who gave one of his best as Pete Campbell this past year

Supporting categories are extremely hard when you don’t watch the show.  Presuming that they are basing this at least somewhat on performance, the Emmy Awards tendency to nominate someone til the end of time makes it so that it’s difficult to know, if say, Jonathan Banks was a pivotal character or had a great year on Breaking Bad or if Jim Carter is mostly in the background and got in on goodwill/a lack of competitors (no slight on either actors, just giving myself some water to tread when I get this one wrong).  My gut says that Patinkin, who I’ve heard great things about, will take the trophy, but Aaron Paul or Jonathan Banks both seem like names that could just as easily be called out.

Drama-Supporting Actress

Morena Baccarin, Homeland

Christina Baranski, The Good Wife

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Who the Hell is…Morena Baccarin (a Google search shows that she’s very beautiful and that I know her from The O.C. and How I Met Your Mother)

If She Promises to Show Up, She Should Automatically Get the Award Just for the Speech: Maggie Smith

Revenge for that Loss Three Years Ago: Christine Baranski, who finally one-upped Archie Panjabi

I’ve gone against Emmy’s tendency to honor people over and over again four times now, so I’m just going to suck it up and predict Maggie Smith for her 18 millionth award.  If she actually showed, I suspect that she’d be able to win this until the end of time, as the woman gives a solid speech.  If they tire of her absences and the awkward lull as some poor first-time presenter has to figure out what to do when no one shows, my hunch is that Anna Gunn might be able to win this in what is clearly becoming a Breaking Bad sweep.

And those are my thoughts on Drama.  What are yours?  For those of you who are better television watchers than I (did anyone catch all six series nominees), which should I be seeing?  Will I like Breaking Bad?  Is catching up on Downton worth it when your coworkers have ruined all of the surprises?  Share in the comments!