...And That Makes 51!

Well, my thought that the train of senators endorsing gay marriage would end, or at least be another Republican next was incorrect.  Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), the last holdout Democratic senator for a state Obama won has endorsed gay marriage in the past day.  What this leaves is only six Democratic Senators who have not endorsed gay marriage.  Based on this information, and our now fairly out-of-date calendar, I'm going to redo our rankings with the remaining senators, with two Republicans thrown in just to mix things up.

8. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV): I still think that Manchin is a longshot, despite the trend of recently re-elected U.S. Senators being amongst those supporting gay marriage.  He's just too conservative, and with the recent exception of gun control, he's been very reluctant to sign on for anything remotely out-of-step with his red state.

7. Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD): The fact that Johnson, who is retiring, still hasn't endorsed makes me wonder if this is a lost cause.  He has theoretically nothing to lose politically by endorsing (part of why Jay Rockefeller is a backer), but his son's potential entry into electoral politics is almost certainly keeping him out.  Johnson will be out of office before he endorses, if ever.

6. Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR): Though the senator is not what you'd call a liberal icon (one suspects he'd be a Republican if his father wasn't a Democratic institution), I'm putting him ahead of Johnson and Manchin just because he won reelection easily four years ago, and may endorse after he wins in 2014 (if he wins in 2014).

5. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND): I have this sneaking suspicion that between Heitkamp and Donnelly, if one goes they both go, but I can't help but feel Heitkamp is slightly less likely.  Maybe because she was just elected by the slimmest of margins to the Senate of any senator running in 2012 and wants to make a stronger foothold into her seat before she takes risks, but I do think that if Donnelly goes, we may see Heitkamp make the jump.

4. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN): Like Heitkamp, he was just elected to a seat he wasn't predicted for, and like Heitkamp, represents a solid red state.  One thing in Donnelly's favor, though, that isn't in Heitkamp's is Rob Portman, who represents Donnelly's neighboring state of Ohio, and could provide some bipartisan cover for the senator if he were to switch.

3. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): Ever since she won in a write-in campaign in 2010, Lisa Murkowski's voting pattern and rhetoric has gotten far more independent, and with her fellow senator also having endorsed gay marriage, I kind of think she may also be a candidate.

2. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA): Manchin/Johnson/Pryor make up the section of the Democratic Party that I just don't see ever moving on this issue, Heitkamp/Donnelly are the brand new senators who want to see where they stand before they go out on a limb, which leaves Landrieu the only senator in the Bill Nelson/Kay Hagan/Jon Tester/Claire McCaskill mode left-a red state senator, sure, but one who is not afraid to buck her state on social issues.  I wouldn't be floored if she made an announcement before her reelection.  As I've said before, though, gay marriage proponents aren't going to get a better ally than Landrieu in office in the Bayou State, and would be fools to challenge her in the open primary.

1. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME): This is almost certain to happen-with the chances of a Republican primary challenge from the right looking more and more doubtful, Collins will want to shore up her moderate credentials in Maine, where she is wildly popular.  Kirk and Portman have provided cover, and I suspect she'll announce in the next month or so, if not sooner.