The Many Rantings of John

20 Best Actors

2009-08-25T16:20:00.000-07:00

In conjunction with Nathaniel's Challenge, here are, from 20 to 1, my favorite actors:

In descending order...

Michael Douglas, Marcello Mastroianni, Laurence Olivier, Robert de Niro, Robert Duvall, Anthony Hopkins, Dustin Hoffman, Michael Caine, Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Al Pacino, Gregory Peck, Henry Fonda, Paul Newman, Ralph Fiennes, James Stewart, Cary Grant, Jack Nicholson, and of course Orson & Marlon.

Karl Malden (1912-2009)

2009-07-02T10:23:00.000-07:00

Perhaps moreso than any other death in the last week, Karl Malden's seems to have hit me the hardest. Yes, Michael Jackson's music transcended the airwaves and Farrah's flip was awe-inspiring, but for me, it's always a return to the movies.

And there's really nothing you can say about the movies that Karl Malden didn't personify. He was a steady, sometimes sensational, always reliable actor who graced our presences with dynamite roles such as On the Waterfront (seriously, where have the films that could produce three worthy Oscar-nominated supporting turns gone?) to the solid work of Patton. And yet, for me, he will eternally be Harold 'Mitch' Mitchell.

I was eleven the first time that I saw A Streetcar Named Desire, and up until that point in my life, films were merely a place to spend $2 on popcorn, pop, and candy (yes, kids, my theater experience was enough for a $5 allowance). And yet, with that haunting Alex North score, and the cast of four (there are other players, but for me, it's the four central), I found myself in love eternally with the cinema. Something happened on that couch while I watched Mitch, Stella, Blanche, and Stanley in their dangerous ballet of deception, lying, and hidden emotions, and I would never be the same. Maybe it was the performances (legendary, and the best I've ever seen), the script (brilliant, and the best I've ever seen), or the direction (claustrophobic, tortured, and fickle all at once), but one thing was for certain-I would eternally be in love with the movies.

Mitch, of course, was the least central of the four characters-Malden's character wasn't part of the love triangle, but instead the most obvious victim of Blanche and Stanley's mind game duels. He starts off sweet, stumbling across the haunting (some would say faded, I'd say more crystalized) beauty of Vivien Leigh. Watch how playful Malden is when he is attempting to flirt with Blanche-he understands that this character is far less experienced than he thinks he is, and is melding old-fashioned ideals with the recklessness that his friends (like Stanley) exhibit daily. One of the film's most underrated, and most frightening scenes, is Malden's penultimate turn in the film, when he decidedly turns on Blanche, showing her the maleviolent nature that is so obviously outside of his nature. Malden is truly brilliant, and takes his character to heights a lesser actor would have made 2-dimensional.

I remember when Kim Hunter died in 2002, I recessed in her character's contradictory earthiness; in 2004, when the world lost its finest actor, I found myself looking at the coldness and the impossibly sensual Stanley with new eyes. And so, tonight, as I take another ride onto the Streetcar named Desire, I look forward to seeing what newness I will find in Mitch. And as always, Ms. Leigh, Mr. Brando, Ms. Hunter, and, of course, Mr. Malden, thank you for making me fall in love with the movies.

Senate-The Ten Seats to Switch

2008-08-30T18:48:00.000-07:00

It's been a good long time since I've counted down the 10 Senate seats most likely to switch, so I figured I'd give it a whirl here:

10. Minnesota-In theory, the DFL should never lose a race in this state. The "swing state" status of this state is about as true as Arizona's for the Democrats-the opposite party can win, but only when the dominant party screws up. And this year, the DFL has screwed up big time. Al Franken, despite being a fine orator, exciting, and a solid fundraiser, is not "Minnesotan." His articles about Porn-O-Rama and tax problems are sticking to rural Minnesot

ans, and they aren't going to forgive, particularly after getting burned with Jesse. It's looking likely that Coleman pulls this off, which is unfortunate because against any other DFL candidate would have been able to pull this off.

9. Mississippi-Much like above, there shouldn't be a way that the Republicans are losing here. The state that elected Trent Lott and Haley Barbour shouldn't have any problem with a mainstream conservative like Roger Wicker. And yet, Wicker's zilch name recognition seems likely to fall victim to the universal name recognition of Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a conservative Democrat who has held this race at a tie for most of the cycle. Granted, Musgrove will need a lead in the polls to pull this off in November, but he's holding his own, which is why this is in the Top 10.

8. North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole is one of those politicians who runs well as a celebrity, less as a candidate (think Jerry Brown, John Glenn, etc.). Her presidential race in 2000 went nowhere, her race in 2002 was surprisingly close, her tenure as chair of the NRSC handed the Senate to the Democrats, and now she's running even in her reelection race. I still think that she pulls this off, but it's going to be very, very close. State Sen. Kay Hagan may be one of the best candidate recruitments of the cycle, and the DSCC's willingness to shove $5 million into this race shows that Chuck Schumer has recognized this.

7. Louisiana-The only Democratic seat in this list, and one that is probably very much in limbo right now. In a perfect world, a civil servant as outstanding as Mary Landrieu wouldn't have any trouble taking down an empty suit like John Kennedy, but the Republican-tilt of this state, particularly evident when you witness the landslide that Bobby Jindal pulled off last year, is going to keep her on her toes. However, this game is still decidedly hers, and until John Kennedy starts to show the state reasons to vote for him, I think she's going to take it.

Interestingly, with William Jefferson likely to lose or be arrested soon and David Vitter (aka Senator Red Light) likely going down in 2010, this state is going to lose it's seniority hard soon, and so voting out Landrieu, a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee, is going to seem very impractical.

6. Oregon-This is the magical spot on the list where I stop thinking the incumbent-party will keep it, and start siding with the challengers. Oregon's Sen. Gordon Smith is a fine man, and an excellent candidate, but the reality is that this is a state that Oregon is going to improve upon John Kerry's margin in, and the presidential candidate will be coming armed with coattails, which means that Democratic House Speaker Jeff Merkley has a very solid shot at taking this seat, even though his campaign has been underwhelming thusfar. This is, in my opinion, going to be the closest race in November, but right now I'm guessing the upset and thinking that Smith will be one of three incumbent Senators to go down in November.

5. Alaska-Another incumbent that I'm guessing goes down is the far more senior Ted Stevens. Stevens, in fact, is the most senior Republican in the caucus, and a legend of Alaska. Stevens, who normally would have no trouble being reelected, is in the middle of a huge indictment scandal, and as the mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich seems to have run the right race at the right time. He reminds me a lot of Tony Knowles, the state's recent two-term governor, but I think Begich is going to do what Knowles couldn't-get elected to the Senate. A wild card here will be the Palin coattails (there will be some)-will they help or hurt Stevens, whom she has publicly lambasted? My guess is the latter. In an interesting side note, if Stevens does go down, Richard Lugar will become the most senior Republican in the Senate, followed by Orrin Hatch, Thad Cochran, and Chuck Grassley.

4. Colorado-This and Number 3 on the list are both states where McCain's coattails could have an effect, but I doubt it. Colorado, which has seen a solid swing to the blue side of the map in the last four years, looks like it's going to have it's real test this year with a solid liberal facing off against a solid conservative. In the past couple of years, the Salazar brothers, Bill Ritter, and Ed Perlmutter were all fairly moderate Democrats, but Rep. Mark Udall is quite liberal, though from a legendary Mountain State family. While this will be tight, he scored a major coup in running against Rep. Bob Schaeffer, a rather abysmal candidate who couldn't even beat Pete Coors in 2004. I'm going to have to say that Udall pulls this off and becomes this cycle's Sherrod Brown.

3. New Hampshire-Sen. John Sununu is a better candidate than Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. But 2006 proved that the environment in the Granite State is completely toxic for Republicans, and Shaheen has yet to be behind Sununu in a poll in this race. It appears as if Sununu is on borrowed time, but you can bet that he'll have a spot in a McCain Administration.

2. New Mexico-It's a coin toss between this race and the number one being most likely to switch, but the reality is that this seat, left open by retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R), is headed to the Democrats. The one chance the GOP had to keep this in their corner they turned down when they picked the ultra-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce in the primary over moderate Rep. Heather Wilson. This has left open the seat for Rep. Tom Udall (D, and yes, cousin to Mark) to add Senator to his already impressive resume.

1. Virginia-Gov. Mark Warner will win this, nuf said. Actually, it should be noted his keynote speech was terrible, even if he's a great public servant who will follow in the lines of another great public servant, Sen. John Warner (R-VA). Now nuf said.

Introducing Sarah Palin

2008-08-30T18:31:00.000-07:00

The media has decided to make Sarah Palin into the nation's newest celebrity, and on the surface, this seems like a logical choice of action. She's an attractive, political unknown to most of the world (I, not to toot my own horn, actually predicted she'd be the VP nominee), and is poised to become the first female Vice President.

Though the Palin announcement could still go either way, the reality is that Obama should be nervous. This woman adds something to McCain's camp that had been sorely lacking-excitement. Quite frankly, people could have given a damn about McCain running for President. He was just another of a long line of conservative white males running under the Republican banner. But Palin-there's excitement: a new face, a mother of five, and there's the fact that 18 million people nearly cracked an impossibly high ceiling in the last year, and Palin is going to benefit.

Obama's choice of Joe Biden, on the other hand, makes sense in January 2009. Joe Biden is ready to be President if need be, and works well with Obama. However, he does nothing to add for the next couple of months to get Obama to the White House. Obama had a chance to sew this thing up with a Hillary selection, and he turned it down. Democrats could have coasted for the next couple of months if he'd drafted the Clintons, but he didn't, and as a result we risk a McCain presidency.

While Obama still does well nationally, McCain has slowly but steadily been locking down swing states-Florida, Ohio, and even more frightening, Pennsylvania. Hillary would have stopped that momentum, but Biden won't. Plus, the Democratic Convention is going to receive no bounce-a first for the Democrats. It's starting to look like Obama's campaign, which was always going to be an uphill campaign, isn't climbing fast enough, and now McCain has the big mo.

So, bravo, Sen. McCain, on the smartest pick you could have made here. Let's just hope it isn't enough. And let's hope that Obama starts hitting back.

The 25 Most Quotable Quotes of 2007

2008-02-02T07:54:00.000-08:00

Here they are, after careful consideration (and probably more work than I intended), I have assembled the 25 Best Quotes of 2007:

25. "I can't tell dreams from truth." -Marketa Irglova, speaking what we all feel, in Once

24. “Spider-Pig, Spider-Pig. / Does whatever a Spider-Pig does. / Can he swing / from a web? / No he *can't*, / He's a pig. / Look out! / He is the Spider-Pig!” -Homer Simpson with America's newest icon in The Simpsons Movie

23. "“Yep. I'm very passionate about Italian food. In fact, um, I'm in love with Italian food.” -Jim Halpert, making a metaphor of his love for Pam, on The Office

22. "“Over the last week, I have listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.” -Hillary Rodham Clinton, getting her groove back in The Granite State

21. "“I can't keep doing this on my own with these... people.” -Daniel Day-Lewis, losing his humanity in There Will Be Blood

20. "“My point is...a penis when seen in the right context is the most wonderful sight for a woman. But when seen in the wrong context it's like a monster movie.” -Michael Scott, appreciating women, in The Office

19. "“My money is on a Freudian pizza.” -My best friend, trying to explain why I always have weird dreams

18. "“When someone gives you odds like 10,000 to 1, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I'm gonna be a very rich dude.” -Kevin Malone, describing one of the vortexes of my personal hell, in The Office

17. "“I gave them their happiness.” -Vanessa Redgrave, making our jaws drop, in Atonement

16. "It's not enough you love blow and I love puff." -Amy Winehouse, crooning a drug reference I don't understand, in "Back to Black"

15. "Because deep down, you know you deserve to be punished, don't you Mr. Potter?" -Imelda Staunton, finding the devil wears pink chiffon, in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

14. “Hello, I'm Tom Hanks. The US Government has lost its credibility so it's borrowing some of mine.” -Tom Hanks, brilliantly lampooning on at least five different levels, in The Simpsons Movie

13. “I love you. I'll wait for you. Come back. Come back to me.” -Keira Knightley, making us swoon, in Atonement

12. "What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?” -Javier Bardem, making us bite our lips, in No Country for Old Men

11. “You’re not making the rules, you used to when you did this, you don’t do this anymore, elections have consequences.” -Barbara Boxer knocking out Jim Inhofe as the CHAIR of the Environment and Public Works Committee

10. “Just imagine the fan fiction.” -J.K. Rowling, outing Albus Dumbledore

9. “I'm not suprised. Pam is the office mattress.” -Angela Martin, spouting her always hilarious hypocrisy, on The Office

8. “I saw “Wedding Crashers” accidentally. I bought a ticket for “Grizzly Man” and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Cause that’s the thing about bear attacks…they come when you least expect it.” -Dwight Schrute, sharing his wisdom, on The Office

7. “Could you double-check the envelope?” -Martin Scorsese, finally winning his Oscar

6. “Once I'm officially regional manager, my first order of business will be to demote Jim Halpert. So I will need a new number two. My ideal choice? Jack Bauer. But he is unavailable. Fictional. And overqualified.” -Dwight Schrute, describing his perfect Assistant to the Regional Manager, on The Office

5. “She’s Alexis, big as Texas, she knows what it’s like to be both sexes.” -Kenny, rapping rhapsodic, about his boss, in Ugly Betty

4. “We only said goodbye with words.” -Amy Winehouse, shedding her sorrow in song, in "Back to Black"

3. "“And my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your milkshake, I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!” -Daniel Day-Lewis, finally falling over the edge, in There Will Be Blood

2. "You can't stop what's coming.” -No Country for Old Men giving Tommy Lee Jones (and all of us), a universal truth.

1. “The scar had not pained Harry for nineteen years. All was well.” -J.K. Rowling, closing the door, in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Heath Ledger (1979-2008)

2008-01-22T16:07:00.000-08:00

"There ain't never enough time, never enough..."

Remember to Dream

2008-01-10T19:08:00.000-08:00

While growing up, I was often one for dreaming-fancifully staring out the windows and staring off into space, wondering what the world beyond my own quaint little town was like. Oftentimes, these daydreams occurred whilst staring at the pages of a book or a magazine, and one in particular, a Life magazine about exploration and man’s quest to become one with nature, would surely jut me into the farthest reaches of space and sea, of jungle and mountain.

These images are flying forward today with the death of Sir Edmund Hillary. Truth be told, I knew little about Sir Edmund outside of his fateful journey one half-century ago. He was a politician but not a particularly successful one (John Glenn would surely beat him in that arena), and a Knight of the Garter (possibly Britain’s highest honor). But to know Hillary was to know his accomplishment, and few in the 20th Century could boast such a feat as to reach for the heavens on earth, or at least the “nearest thing to heaven” to quote Deborah Kerr.

One has to wonder, with the dwindling number of explorers in the world, where the next generation will come from, and where will they go? Where are the Edmund Hillary's, the Neil Armstrong's and John Glenn's, the Thor Heyerdahl's and Jacques Cousteau's? Where are those individuals who will reach into the depths of nature and not try to conquer it, but instead shoot to solve its mysteries? In this age of digital, well, everything, and the stress on the small, do the world’s citizens still want to reach for the stars? I pray that the imagination still thirsts for the grand and quixotic, and I’d like to think that this generation of men and women, those who discovered the world (and beyond) anew in the 1940s-1960s, are not the last to want to go into the depths of the natural unknown.

So tonight, before you head into the cozy enigmas of the unconscious, take a look at the world surrounding you, whether it be the stars in the heavens or the ground below you (or, in my case, the heaps of snow blocking the street), and take a long hard look at the beauty of nature, perhaps even allow yourself to imagine yourself, to wonder and think and pretend. After all, Everest, the Poles, the Moon: they too just began as dreams.

Supporting Actress Smackdown 1990

2007-09-29T20:48:00.001-07:00

For those of you who love the wonders of actressing on the edges, Stinkylulu's Supporting Actress Smackdowns need no introduction. This month, Stinkylulu tackled the lovely ladies of 1990, and yours truly is one the panelists. Make sure to head over there and discuss Oda Mae Brown, Marietta Fortune, Karen Hill, Myra Langtry, and Stands With a Fist (seriously, has there ever been such variety in the names of the supporting ladies?)

I, who have to admit I wasn't greatly impressed with the film output of 1990, will readily proclaim that my favorite of the ladies was Ms. Annette Bening, turning in one of her (to date) three Oscar-nominated performances. Bening's delicious con artistl in The Grifters was a true delight, and a nice throwback to the supporting actresses who have populated the film noir genre (my personal favorite film genre). When I first started looking into Bening's perf, I kind of figured that noir, like most genre pieces, would have largely been ignored in this category. Boy was I wrong! Roles as diverse as Angela Lansbury's floozy maid in Gaslight to Cathy Moriarty's childlike bride in Raging Bull have been recognized by the little golden guy. Winners, as Bening illustrates, are far less common; only Claire Trevor's lush mistress in Key Largo has come out on top of the category.

And yet, as any Oscar watcher knows, nitpicking must ensue when discussing Oscar's rather fickle choices. And when it comes to film noir supporting actresses, Oscar's dismissal of Marlene Dietrich in Touch of Evil was one of his biggest mistakes. Granted, 1958 was a year filled with snub miscalculations (Jimmy Stewart and Orson Welles were not included amongst the Best Actor lineup), but Dietrich's snub is particularly grating because she does so much with so little screentime. She can't be onscreen for more than ten minutes, but she flies to mind when I think about the film. The ladies of The Grifters (particularly Anjelica Huston) seem to have borrowed a bit from the world-weary Tanya; each has a history that is alluded to in the film more than actually viewed, leaving the plot largely in the hands of the male protagonists. Dietrich's whisky-worn vocal timbre indents each line-reading, and her eyes and eyebrow raises with Welles show that she's the only true equal to Hank Quinlan in the film. While Charlton Heston may be able to one-up Quinlan due to circumstance, Dietrich's Tanya is his equal, and therefore her place at the stunning conclusion of the tale seems fitting.

Unlike Touch of Evil, Bening's Myra is not the equal to Huston's Lilly Dillon, but she is definitely her only challenge in the film. The real genius to Bening's performance is that one is never quite sure how much this woman is capable of; whilst we know that Huston has a lot of tricks up her sleave, the enigmatic, seemingly bubbleheaded Myra doesn't show her cards, leaving the audience and her co-grifters guessing what she would do for success. Sometimes this is a bit problematic (at times, I wonder if even Bening herself knew Myra's intentions), but as a whole this is a wildly entertaining performance, and a grand counterpart to Huston's epic turn.

I personally would have handed both Dietrich and Bening Oscars in their respective years, but what about you? Head over to the Smackdown and voice your opinions on the actresses of 1990's edges!

TV's Trek to the Big Screen

2007-09-24T19:10:00.001-07:00

Sex and the City is one of those shows that somehow managed to be as beloved in my world as the movies that I obsess about on an almost second-by-second basis. I think it might be the whole saga of the show-seriously, the soap operatics of this show on paper must seem a tad bit obscene, and yet with characters as brave and strong as Carrie, Miranda, Charlotte, and Samantha to fall in love with, everything seems to give over to a believable reality. Countless hours I have spent curled up with these fabulous ladies, obsessing over which one of them I'm most like (Charlotte, to the point where people I hardly know have insinuated I have a bit of Ms. York in me) to the countless string of Jimmy Choos the ladies click-clacked all up and down Lex. And yet, their recent movie news has got me thinking: which of my other favorite television series needs to get itself to the big screen?

Some of the movies that I would list have already (successfully) made their ways to the big screen (South Park and The Simpsons). Almost certainly the one that I most long for onscreen, and yet wouldn't happen in a million years, would be having my most beloved of teenage shows, Ally McBeal, return to the screen. I know that Calista Flockhart is on another hit television series on ABC (Brothers & Sisters, and yes, you should be watching it), Jane Krakowski is likely hoofing it up on Broadway, and Courtney Thorne-Smith is demeaning her worn, but sharp personality opposite Jim Belushi, but really, it's time these actors lawyered up and gave me what I've been waiting years and years for-a return to the courtroom. Hell, I'd settle for simply an office meeting and a show tunes medley down at the bar (with dancing baby in tow). Alas, David E. Kelley's best series won't be seeing the big screen anytime soon, so can I at least send out a plea-release the DVD's in a Region 1 version! I can't stand my lack of Ally anymore!

If Ally seems a pipe dream, perhaps a more believable fantasy would be the recently offed series Gilmore Girls coming back to me. Yes, yes, I know that it just went off the air, but I'm still in denial that I won't be able to see my Lorelai and Rory again. I'm specifically keeping my Tuesday nights busy at the moment, so as to not notice that my girls are no longer traipsing to town meetings and having disfunctional love lives. The movie could perhaps have Luke & Lorelai once again preparing for the wedding, with Emily barging in and Rory finally making a decision between Jess, Dean, and Logan. CW, you owe me this-the fact that you made me say goodbye to my girls in a season without its genius creator Amy Sherman-Palladino is unforgivable; this would make everything right.

What about you? Which TV shows do you want to see on the big screen?

William Wyler: A Director of Few Words

2007-09-23T14:36:00.000-07:00

I've been thoroughly been enjoying the many entries in the William Wyler blog-a-thon that Goatdog has so graciously put together, so I thought that I would add my two cents on one of Hollywood's most accomplished auteurs.
To think of William Wyler, one will inevitably think of actors, and the myriad of performers he has left his brand upon. Picking one of them seemed a Herculean task-how does one pick between the star-is-born (both on-and-off-screen) antics of Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl, the crushed naivety of Olivia de Havilland in The Heiress, the mannered perfection of Greer Garson’s Mrs. Miniver, Audrey’s joyous vacation in Roman Holiday or the wounded veterans of The Best Years of Our Lives? I couldn’t possibly pick between the bunch, but one thing struck me about each of these films when I first thought about them. The wordless, haunting and effective scenes that first came to mind when I thought about the movies; Wyler, more than hardly any other mainstream director, knew the power and effectiveness of a quiet moment.
Recall, perhaps The Best Years of Our Lives. Is there anything in Myrna Loy or Fredric March’s performances that is as telling as those haunting glances they give each other showing a sense of lost intimacy and fear that it has forever been lost in a blood-washed field across the ocean? Or perhaps Cathy O’Donnell’s mingled looks of compete adoration and desperation as she undresses the love of her life?
Best Years may in fact be Wyler’s most emotional film (I mean that as a high compliment), but each of his films have that moment where the heart soars or crumbles or thumps, and each of these scenes are largely wordless. Olivia de Havilland’s horrifying ascent up the stairs (and obvious descent into a black depression she will never retreat from) is all about her determined, moon pie eyes and strong lower lip. Greer Garson’s steely face as she’s being robbed is a harried, steely pierce that shows the audience that she’ll be able to survive anything, even as she’s being held captive.
Wyler’s characters also tell their heartbreak with little more than a curt sentence or fake smile. Streisand’s stone-faced gazes at her Nicky show that she knows that she’ll never be this happy again, and it could so easily slip away. Laurence Olivier captures the eternally hungry character of Wuthering Heights, exhibiting his complete misguided devotion to Catherine with hardly a word, but more a vengeful array of huffs and darting eyes.
To conclude this laundry list of moments, I should probably present my favorite, that being the final scene of Roman Holiday. Wyler’s script is largely relegated to anonymous members of the press corps, coming to grab a last moment with Princess Audrey before she leaves behind Rome, and yet Wyler spends most of his camera time balancing between the delicate beauty of Audrey Hepburn and the chiseled beauty of Gregory Peck. Hepburn’s face shifts only slightly through the scene, and yet the audience is able to experience a gamut of her emotions, ranging from confusion at first to betrayal to adoration and finally true heartbreak. As Audrey Hepburn turns around and gives her one true love a gaze, her heart broken, all that she can do is smile a wide grin, covering up the internal tears. A less capable director would have shown the beginnings of tears, but Wyler doesn’t saturate the scene, instead letting it simmer. He’s already hit every emotional button, now all that is left is to fade to black. It’s a near flawless moment from a director who more than once flirted with silent perfection.

Ask and ye shall receive...

2007-09-14T06:12:00.001-07:00

Apparently, this has turned into the magical wishing blog. I asked last week asked for Jeanne Shaeen and Mark Warner to both run for the U.S. Senate, and lo and behold, within the last 24 hours both Mark Warner and Jeanne Shaheen have announced their intentions for the U.S. Senate, thus insuring the Democrats have an incredibly good year in the Senate in 2008. And, since the blog fairies are now granting me my wishes here, I'd like an Oscar for Kate Winslet, an Emmy for Kelly Bishop, Al Gore to retroactively win the 2000 Presidential Election, and possibly a pony.

Love at the Movies: A Guessing Game

2007-09-13T07:15:00.000-07:00

The fifty most romantic lines from my fifty favorite movie romances-do you know where they're from?

1. "We'll always have Paris."
2. "Of course, you idiot. I always wear it; I've always worn it; I've always loved you."
3. "I'll never let go Jack, I will never let go."
4. "I wish I knew how to quit you."
5. "No, I only know that I love you."
6. "I'll tell you one thing, Fred, darling... I'd marry you for your money in a minute."
7. "Tale old as time, true as it can be, barely even friends, then somebody bends, unexpectedly."
8. "Your girl is lovely Hubbell."
9. "Let's never come here again because it will never be as much fun."
10. "My husband and son are on that train. I want to get on that train. Did you hear me? I want to get on that train."
11. "I'll give you the moon, Mary."
12. "Rome! By all means, Rome. I will cherish my visit here in memory as long as I live."
13. "This is a story about...love."
14. "It was the nearest thing to heaven."
15. "Love is too weak a word for what I feel - I luuurve you, you know, I loave you, I luff you."
16. "I still sometimes dream that I'm the mother of your children."
17. "Well, first of all, the two hundred pairs of eyes aren't focused on me. They're focused on you. And the answers are Sydney Ellen Wade, and because she said yes."
18. "I've already wasted my whole life. I want to tell you with my last breath that I have always loved you. I would rather be a ghost, drifting by your side as a condemned soul, than enter heaven without you. Because of your love, I will never be a lonely spirit."
19. "I went from being all alone to being a fiancee, a daughter a granddaughter, a sister and a friend."
20. "My heart is, and always will be, yours."
21. "And don't forget, I'm also just a girl, standing in front of a boy, asking him to love her."
22. "Take me with you, Peter. Take me to your island. I want to do all those things you talked about."
23. "Edelweiss, edelweiss, every morning you greet me; small and white, clean and bright, you look happy to meet me."
24. "Oh Scottie, don't let me go."
25. "And would you dare to say, 'let's do the same as they.' I would, would you?"
26. "The most beautiful sound I ever heard-Maria, Maria, Maria."
27. "Oh Dexter, I'll be yar now, I promise to be yar."
28. "You're my knight in shining armor, don't forget it. You're going to get back on that horse and I'm going to be right behind you, holding on tight and away we're going to go, go, go!"
29. "I've grown accustomed to her face."
30. "Mrs. Robinson, you're trying to seduce me."
31. "Longing. Longing for a wave of love that would stir in me. That's what makes me clumsy. The absence of pleasure. Desire for love. Desire to love."
32. "How could I have known that murder could sometimes smell like honeysuckle?"
33. "I sacrificed three years for you. How could you love him after only three days?"
34. "Oh Jerry, let's not ask for the moon; we have the stars."
35. "Some day, they'll go down together, they'll bury them side by side, to a few, it'll be grief, to the law, a relief, but it's death for Bonnie and Clyde."
36. "Say it again, it keeps me awake." "I love you."
37. "He smashed all the lightbulbs with the heel of my slipper." "And you let him? Didn't run, didn't scream?" "Actually, I was sorta thrilled by it."
38. "Meet me in Montauk."
39. "I'd like to see you with your pants off, Mr. Reed."
40. "This is the night, it's a beautiful night, and they call it belle notte."
41. "Perhaps he knew, as I did not, that the Earth was made round so that we would not see too far down the road."
42. "The moon is reaching for me."
43. "It was like coming home, only to no home I'd ever known. I was just taking her hand to help her out of a car and I knew. It was like... magic."
44. "Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again."
45. "Charlie, that's a nice name."
46. "I just want to find a fish who isn't afraid of my dark chocolate layer... and of course she'd have to love my cookie too."
47. "Now it isn't that I don't like you, Susan, because, after all, in moments of quiet, I'm strangely drawn toward you, but - well, there haven't been any quiet moments."
48. "Can you see now?" "Yes, I can see now."
49. "No I despise you myself, for allowing myself to love you once."
50. "This is not life, Will. It is a stolen season."

How many can you name? And which lines/films should have made the list?

Jane Wyman, 1914-2007

2007-09-10T15:48:00.000-07:00

Apparently death comes in threes, or so the adage goes, as one of those last remaining greats of Hollywood's Golden Age has passed away. Jane Wyman, who passed away today at the age of 93, was possibly best known for two non-movie related items, first being her marriage to future President Ronald Reagan and the second would be her stint on Falcon Crest. However, her film career was easily enough to distinguish her on her own. My first filmic date with Ms. Wyman was in Pollyanna, as Aunt Polly, and then as the girlfriend role in The Lost Weekend. Wyman would receive four Academy Award nominations, for The Yearling, Johnny Belinda, The Blue Veil, and Magnificent Obsession. If you want to get involved with her filmography, those four would be a great way to start. And of course, she is also extremely well-known for her wry and clever Oscar speech, where, after winning for playing a deaf-mute in Johnny Belinda, "I won this award for keeping my mouth shut, so I think I'll do it again now." If only today's actresses could be so clever. So, RIP to Angela Channing, Aunt Polly, Orry Baxter, and Belinda McDonald-you will be missed.

Oh, and in a plea to all of my favorite celebrities, keep eating your vegetables. This has been an awful summer for my favorite entertainers passing away.

Time for a Senate Update

2007-09-09T06:03:00.000-07:00

It's been a while since I've ranked the 2008 races for the Senate, so here are some updates on the five most competitive seats (the number one seat is the one most likely to switch at this point).
1. Virginia: Republican Sen. John Warner's (Liz Taylor's ex for all those people who read this blog for the film content) recent retirement was far more damaging to the Republicans than the entire Larry Craig and Thomas Ravenel scandals combined. Warner, probably the most beloved senator amongst his fellow senators, easily held this seat for the Republicans, and would have again in 2008. However, with his retirement, Gov. Mark Warner, the popular former Democratic governor, has been making heavy hints that he will run, and as the most popular politician in the state (his approval ratings when he left office were over 70 percent), he will be damn near impossible to beat. Warner is popular enough that his support and his investment in his own state party have led to Democrats holding the governor's mansion and winning a Senate seat in 2006. To compound that, Republicans appear to be headed toward a bitter primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. And, proving that the GOP is in truly dire straits, Davis's House seat is also likely to head to the Democrats as well.

2. Colorado: It's been months since Sen. Allard has retired, and the candidates are now set, and as is traditional of 2007, it seems as if it's bad news for the Republicans. The Democrats have received their first choice, Rep. Mark Udall, whereas the Republicans are stuck with their primary loser in 2004, Rep. Bob Schaffer. Both of them are solidly liberal and conservative, respectively, which in traditional Colorado would mean that Schaffer would be headed toward a win, but the recent trend toward the blue that Colorado has been doing means that Udall should have an edge (particularly if the presidential candidate targets Colorado, which he/she most certainly will). This should be tight, but right now it appears as if the Democrats have a real edge.

3. New Hampshire: This seat could very easily skate up to Number 1 or 2 in the next month should the Democrats manage to get their dream candidate, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen has been toying around with running for months, and while she seems like she'll get in, her dragging her feet up until this point has Democrats nervous. Should she run, she could very easily beat one-term Republican Sen. John Sununu; she's been defeating him by twenty points at the polls and New Hampshire has had the sharpest turn blue in the last few years of any state in the country. If Shaheen doesn't enter, the Democrats could still win this with either Mayor Steve Marchand or Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett, but it will be much tougher and divert attention from races listed below.

4. Minnesota: This race will be decided more in the Democratic Primary than in the general election. Norm Coleman has to be sitting at home and praying that the Democrats nominate comedian Al Franken. Should they do this, one has to assume that first-term Sen. Coleman has an edge over the comedian, especially considering that Minnesotans have "celebrity fatigue" due to the horrible tenure of Gov. Jesse Ventura. However, if millionaire attorney Mike Ciresi is the nominee, the Democrats will probably have the edge, particularly since this is a presidential election and Minnesota has the longest current run of picking Democrats for the White House (every single D since 1972).

5. Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith is the last remaining Republican West Coast senator, since Slade Gorton lost in 2000. Smith had somewhat of a pass in 2002, but in a presidential year, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley should be able to get the money to run competitively here, particularly since DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been fundraising something fierce. Smith would in a normal year have a distinct edge here, but the combination of a strong Democratic climate, plus the Democrats possibly having easy wins in Virginia and New Hampshire (particularly if they tie up things early and they have money to pour into this race) means that this could very much be a tossup.

6. Nebraska: This was the big, bad news of the weekend for the GOP. Two-term Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) announced that he would be retiring, thus setting up a free-for-all in the typically Republican Cornhusker State. Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the frontrunner, on the condition that former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns gets into the race (though that could cause Johanns to explain his participation in the Bush administration). The Democrats wouldn't normally have a shot, but former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey, a beloved icon of Nebraska politics, is considering a run for this seat, and that would automatically make him the frontrunner. Should he run (Kerrey's a maverick-there's no way to tell if he'll actually get in), he'll become the frontrunner for the seat, and thus giving the Democrats another seat that they could fairly safely hold. If Kerrey isn't in the race, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb will be the nominee.

7. Louisiana: The first (and only) Democratic seat on this list, Sen. Mary Landrieu has been the GOP's number one target for the entire duration of this cycle. However, it would be one thing if Landrieu was competing Rep. Richard Baker or Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, but instead there is no challenger announced against Sen. Landrieu. State Treasurer John Kennedy, who just recently joined the Republican Party, could be the candidate to take on Landrieu, but he will face flip-flopping charges, particularly since he was a left-of-the-middle Democrat. Additionally, Kennedy could face a primary challenger from a more conservative Republican. All-the-while, Landrieu is stockpiling campaign funds a plenty, and, as the Republicans' only target, she'll be getting a lot of support from her fellow Democratic incumbents.

8. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is a two-term incumbent with incredibly high approval ratings. In a normal election, she wouldn't be anywhere near this list. However, she is a Republican in a state that hasn't gone for a Republican for president since 1988; the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, particularly with money from the DSCC being shovelled here, MN, and OR all means that Sen. Collins will be in for a tough reelection. This is particularly true since the Democrats have recruited their number one choice for the seat, Rep. Tom Allen. If the climate continues, Allen could take this in an upset, but Collins is the most formidable of the four blue-state GOP senators.

9. Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens is a legend in Alaska, and hasn't had a tough election since 1968, but his current FBI probe has been costing him in both loyalty and and in his invincibility. It seems as if he might be getting a primary challenge from a myriad of challengers, though former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman or St. Sen. John Binkley both appear to be the highest profile challengers. Even if Sen. Stevens makes it through the primary, there is still Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), son of former Rep. Nick Begich, who is the toughest potential Democratic challenger that Stevens has ever had.

10. North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole had one of the worst tenures as the NRSC Chairs in recent memory, and is noted as one of the worst campaigners in the Senate (note her horrid candidacy for president in 2000). Luckily for her, she is from a fairly conservative state, particularly because she has been one of Bush's biggest supporters. However, since her SurveyUSA polls are teetering in the low 50's and polls have shown her before 50 percent against two state legislators (St. Sen. Kay Hagan and St. Rep. Grier Martin), one has to assume that this is definitely on the Democrats to watch list.

States also considered for this list: South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson's Democratic label could be a problem in the conservative Mount Rushmore State, Idaho, where Sen. Larry Craig's recent scandal could have an effect on the race, and Oklahoma, where St. Sen. Andrew Rice will be hoping to turn Jim Inhofe into the next Jim Bunning/Conrad Burns.

Madeleine L'Engle Finds Her Wrinkle in Time

2007-09-09T05:52:00.001-07:00

Growing up, I was not that into children's literature. I was all obsessed with taking on those classics of literature with a capital L; Dickens, Austen, and the Brontes were a mainstay on my bookshelf. So, during my junior year, I decided to investigate all of the classics of children's literature, and bar none, one of my favorites were the books of Madeleine L'Engle. A Wrinkle in Time, A Wiind in the Door, A Swiftly Tilting Planet, Many Waters, and An Acceptable Time, all of the books of the Time Quintet, are marvelously in-depth works of literature for any age, and well worth a trip to your local library or B&N. The author, Madeleine L'Engle, passed away on September 6th (not a good summer for entertainers I love), and with this, she has left a gaping hole in the world of letters.

A Plea to Jeanne and Mark

2007-09-06T20:38:00.000-07:00

Dear Jeanne and Mark:

I know that you both have done wonderful things for your states. You have served with distinction, and were both excellent governors. Ms. Shaheen, you are a master campaigner, and did wonders for the Gore & Kerry campaigns. Mr. Warner, you have managed to almost single-handedly revive the flailing Virginia Democratic Party and given the Dems a governor's mansion and a Senate seat. Now, I'm going to ask you both for one more favor. Please, oh please, run for the U.S. Senate seats in your states. The country needs you-the Democrats currently have a razor thin margin in the Senate that basically depends on how Joe Lieberman feels that week. The education, environment, and well-being of the country could hinge on whether or not you continue your excellent service to the country. You both would be superb senators, and I, along with the rest of the Democratic community, am begging you to run for these seats.

Much love and hope to see you at the ballot box,
John

RIP to a Legend

2007-09-05T23:14:00.000-07:00

The world has lost one of its greatest artists, and one of the finest singers of all-time (and one of my personal favorites). My love affair with opera made me want to investigate all sorts of opera stars, but there was a soft spot for the one whose voice made me want to open my own in hopes that I could produce the heaven that he was bringing to my ears. When the King of the High C's hit his signature note, I would collapse in amazement and imagined this must be what that angel chorus would sound like. Alas, I couldn't ever reach the beautiful notes that the master could hit, but that didn't stop me from constantly listening to him. He costars were varied and consisted of everyone from Joan Sutherland to Barry White, but most importantly, he sang beautifully opposite his fellow tenors Jose Carreras and Placido Domingo. Luciano Pavarotti, who died on September 6, 2007, was and is one of the finest entertainers in the history of the medium of opera, and I will sorely miss him.

Please, whether you're a devoted fan or new to Pavarotti or the world of opera, please investigate some of these links-if it's your first or 1000th time hearing them, they still have a magic that is unsurpassed. There's of course Ave Maria, La Donna e Mobile, a performance of the Norma Trio in two parts with the equally glorious Dame Joan Sutherland and Marilyn Horne, a Three Tenors rendition of You'll Never Walk Alone, and not one, but two versions of Nessun Dorma.

Happy Birthday Ingrid Bergman!

2007-08-29T12:35:00.000-07:00

Growing up, I was always a little jealous of my dad for being born on August 29th. Me, the only cool person born on my birthday was Harmon Killebrew (and I wasn't really into baseball). But my dad, he shared a birthday with none other than one of the greatest actresses of ALL-TIME, the lovely and beautiful Ms. Ingrid Bergman. Bergman may not have had the bravado of Bette Davis, the sauciness of Kate Hepburn, or the pixieish Hepburn, but she was a steady, lovely force in all of her films, and is one of the most determined, introverted actors I've ever seen.Here are five other facts about myself and my longtime love of Ms. Ingrid Bergman:

1. Ingrid Bergman is currently ranked fourth in my list of favorite female actors (outranked by only the Hepburns and Meryl).

2. Bergman gives my favorite performance in my favorite film, Casablanca.

3. Ingrid was not related to Ingmar Bergman, which I thought when I was growing up, though they did a film together called Autumn Sonata; it is the most glaring omission in my Ingrid viewings.

4. When asked about who is the best-lookiing actress in all of film history, I always say that Rita Hayworth was the sexiest, and Ingrid Bergman was the most beautiful.

5. Bergman, though one of the most-honored actors in all of film history at the Oscars, was not even nominated for what I consider her finest performances-that of the tortured and resilient Ilsa Lund in Casablanca and the persecuted Alicia Huberman in Notorious.

Laura, My Love

2007-08-15T13:38:00.000-07:00

There are a few things that I do on a daily basis. Shower, check my email, utter the phrase "Oscar-winning." You know, the usual. And, of course, there is nare a day where I don't think about one of my all-time favorite movies, the one to the left. Laura is one of the finest things that I have ever had the pleasure at viewing (cinematic or otherwise). Simply put, I don't think there is a movie that I am in love with more than Laura. Casablanca is my favorite, The English Patient is the one I'm most passionate about, but I long for Laura. The mystery, the wit, the stylish direction and production, I can't get enough. It's the best film that Alfred Hitchcock never directed. And that cast, from the smoky Gene Tierney to the lugheaded Vincent Price to the "neanderthal" Dana Andrews to the stony Judith Anderson to the monument to verbal venom, Clifton Webb, there's a sumptuous feast of thespian antics in this film. Simply mentioning this movie puts me into a trance-I'll just sigh, go off into my beautiful Preminger world, with a whisper of, "Laura."

And, though Oscar never seems to get these things right, the fact that he had both Laura and Double Indemnity to give a trophy for in 1944, and yet it was Going My Way that swept the trophies still irks me.

The Worst of the Best

2007-08-09T07:41:00.000-07:00

I remember the very first Best Picture nominee that I ever had the privilege to see. It was Seven Brides for Seven Brothers, and I fell in love with it, watching it in my living room. Since, then I have explored many, many, many different films that Oscar seemed to flirt with, and this morning, after catching my favorite director's (Mr. Orson Welles) take on one of my favorite novels (The Magnificent Ambersons), I now can boast of seeing my 200th Best Picture nominee.

This journey has taken me on some wild adventures, from a bar in Morocco to a falling castle called Xanadu; from the windswept deserts of Arabia to the snow-covered peaks of Brokeback Mountain (and everywhere in between), and many of my favorite films managed to be shortlisted by Oscar (indeed, I recently noticed that my personal Top 10 favorite movies were all recognized by the Gold Man himself).

However, on this journey, Oscar has not always held up his end of the bargain by giving me the "best." Instead of going through the ten times Oscar most got it right in honor of this special day, I've decided to take him to task a wee bit for the following ten films. These are, in my opinion, the worst films that have been nominated for Best Picture that I have seen (hopefully the next 250 or so will have nothing in common with them). Before I start, honorable mentions should go out to Gladiator and Doctor Doolittle, who just missed this list.

10. Ghost (1990)
Unlike the atrocious doctor above, 1990 as a whole is a terrible year at the Oscars. If you subtract the beautiful GoodFellas, you’re left with some truly atrocious movies (seriously, why was this the first Best Picture lineup that I finished watching?) This romance, a turgid piece of tripe, may seem sweet and lovely in your memories, but that’s only because the Righteous Brothers’ rich melodies have clouded your mind. This is a truly awful movie-Demi Moore and Patrick Swayze’s earth/heaven romance is a love story between two dreadful actors, both of whom have the combined charisma of my coffee table. Even Whoopi Goldburg, attempting comic relief with mixed success, can’t save this bloated ship. Watch another romance, and pray that this inexplicable Box Office champ goes the way of Patrick Swayze’s career.

9. She Done Him Wrong (1933)
If Mae West were somehow reincarnated, and started to do Vaudeville on Broadway, she’d be selling to sell-out shows, and I’d be lining up to buy a ticket. As a standup comic, she’s like a trampy, insanely busty, oversexed Bob Hope; her schtick is predictable as dirt, but still manages to gain an endless stream of laughter. However, when it comes to this movie, she should have to stuck to the stage. Even the presence of a young Cary Grant can’t save this movie from being an incredibly dull farce. West’s classic one-liners aside, this is a messy screwball romance that is so forgettable I needed to check my crib notes to find out some of the key plot points.

8. Gangs of New York (2002)
Daniel Day-Lewis, stand aside, partially because you’re performance in this film, though a little hammy at times, is the only saving grace from making this hit the top five, and partially because you scare me to death in this movie. Marty Scorsese, a man who has made some of the finest, grittiest dramas of the last thirty years, proves that no one is perfect with this D-Grade historical epic, complete with atrocious acting from the usually reliable Leonardo DiCaprio and the always horrendous Cameron Diaz, along with a storyline that manages to be revenge tale, coming-of-age-story, historical epic, and romance, though never really becoming successful in any of these undertakings. Since this film, Scorsese has made two of the decade’s best, but after this atrocity, we had these filmic apologies coming.

7. A Thousand Clowns (1965)
Like Number Eight, this is a film that’s so dull, I had to check a couple notes to figure out some plot points, but unlike Number Eight, I just watched this movie a month ago. Its crime is also slightly worse in the way it presents truly annoying characters in a likeable light, and expects the audience to somehow relate to the “misunderstood soul” of Jason Robards, the spazzy Barbara Harris, and the precociously dull Barry Gordon. Even in a role that somehow won Martin Balsam an Oscar, the film can’t latch onto a character of much substance (Balsam seems to be playing Martin Balsam-not a bad role, but not of a stretch). Balsam, Robards, and Harris were all magical in Breakfast at Tiffany’s, Julia, and Nashville, respectfully. Perhaps they would have been better served storing up their magic and my memory wouldn’t vaguely recall this schlocky issue film.

6. The Green Mile (1999)
Leave it to Oscar in a year that seemed to revolutionize film for the next Millennium, when movies were exploring every facet that seemed imaginable, to select the really super-important-Stephen-King-prison-epic-starring-Tom Hanks-and-a-bunch-of-other-people-who-aren’t-important-enough-to-have-names. Seriously, this movie from its opening scenes is a both predictable and hokey. Who didn’t think the actual killer would be revealed, or that the scary giant wouldn’t in fact be a sweet saint. Michael Clarke Duncan beat Christopher Plummer for a nomination for this? This was nominated when Toy Story 2 and The Talented Mr. Ripley (amongst dozens that I could list in exasperation) didn’t receive a mention in the top category. Someone should have been punished for this, and unfortunately, it was the viewer.

5. Awakenings (1990)
Robin Williams is a funny guy, and not a bad actor when he puts his mind to it. Anyone who disagrees can check out his performance as the Genie in Aladdin, a comic tour de force if there ever was one. So why is it that when Oscar comes a-calling, he always seems to be putting in the most maudlin tales imaginable? The hopeless dreck of Good Will Hunting's crying-in-your-beer tale is really rather awful. Even worse, however, is this movie about comatose patients reawakened by a miracle drugs. A plot so predictable and overdone you have expect Cliff Robertson to show up screaming, "I've already done this!!!" Williams is mundane, De Niro chomps on the waiting room furniture, and in the end, even the moments that are supposed to be tear-wrenching have no effect whatsoever. All in all, a rather stiff and overdone tale.

4. Braveheart (1995)
I have not always hated Mel Gibson, I'll admit it right now. There was a time, growing up, I thought this Aussie could be good for a few laughs, and though I haven't seen it in years, I remember distinctly enjoying the mindless fun of films like Bird on a Wire. That said, when he wants to be "artistic" and "dramatic," he's a dismal failure. The Passion, with its violence for violence sake, would certainly have made this list, if Oscar hadn't had the good taste to leave it off of its shortlist. Unfortunately, the Academy didn't show the same good taste with this tale of William Wallace. The acting is abysmal (sorry Mel, but you are not Laurence Olivier), the script is ridiculous, and a few watchable fight scenes to not make up for a lack of proper story arc and acting. In a year with films as beautiful as Sense and Sensibility, Toy Story, and Babe, it's a shame that Oscar had to go with Mel's bloody failure.

3. Airport (1970)
I have thusfar been able to avoid The Towering Inferno, which I fear may be even worse than this horrid disaster flick (Oscar had an odd fetish for nominating star-studded disaster flicks in the 1970s). However, this is bad enough. Despite the presence of certified thespians Jean Seberg, Helen Hayes, Burt Lancaster, George Kennedy, and Jacqueline Bisset, this film can't help but fall into the rut of every single other disaster film, and is filled with schmaltz. Lancaster's tendency to overact several characters has never been more on display, and Hayes is totally wasted as a paint-by-numbers elderly woman. Only Maureen Stapleton is worth watching, as she steals every scene she's in; however, when the stench off the rest of the film is this strong, this is unfortunatley petty theft.

2. The Godfather, Part III (1990)
I was tempted to put this at Number One, but I figured giving this the top slot would be unfair, considering part of its failure is that it can't compare with its far more talented predecessors. The film, however, doesn't even come close to deserving an Oscar nod (not even in one of the worst years for the lineup that I've ever seen). I mean, Pacino and Garcia are fine, but Talia Shire takes her hysterics from Part II and amps up the volume, and most unfortunately, there is Sofia in the middle. Sure, she made up for it thirteen years later with one of the best films of the decade, but man did she have a lot to make-up for; that death scene is just horrid (and no, I don't mind ruining that one-save yourself and resist the urge to watch this and instead catch one of the first two flicks). A film truly worthy of its awful reputation.

1. Crash (2005)
And speaking of reputations, Roger Ebert's completely took a hit with me after he called this film the best flick of the year. I seriously would have considered it for the worst of the year list-when the best performance of your film is turned in by a woman whose in the film for three-four minutes (that you'd be, Devine Ms. Loretta), you have problems. It isn't just that the film simplifies racism to the simplest of stereotypes, it's also that it puts together a really awful, risk-free script, and presents a series of characters two-dimensional, you half expect them to fall over and reveal they were just cardboard cutouts.

And there you have it, the worst of the best. If, however, you want to enjoy the best of the best, do yourself a favor and investigate Nick's Flick Picks where Oscar-viewing is championed and it is accompanied by witty, incisive observations of the films that the Golden Guy loved the most.

Senate Time Capsule

2006-11-08T19:51:00.000-08:00

Well, it seems that the Democrats have won back the U.S. Senate, and much congratulations have to go out to all of the new senators, as well as those that have been reelected.

Two years ago, one wouldn't have expected any sort of race for George Allen, Mike DeWine, or Lincoln Chafee, and yet they will soon be collecting unemployment. Which is why this exercise may seem silly, but I want a Senate Outlook Chart that I can mock myself for in two years, so here's a preview of what to look for two years from now.

It should be noted that this will be a much easier cycle for Democrats, as there are more Republicans up for reelection than there are Democrats. This is why you will hear that Republicans will have trouble taking back the Senate in 2008.

1. Colorado-No state in the last four years has best illustrated a state that Democrats can turn purple: it's given the Democrats the governor's mansion, a Senate seat, two House seats, and both chambers of its state legilature. This will be a top target in more than one way in 2008-expect the Democratic nominee for president to be gunning for its nine electoral votes, the Democrats will continue gunning for CO-4, and of course this seat. Rep. Mark Udall is already running for this seat, and his tenure in the House, plus his golden last name, make him a good candidate here. Wayne Allard may run for reelection, or could potentially retire. Allard's not very popular, but only Bill Owens would guarantee any sort of victory for Republicans in an open seat. Either way, Udall will be a major player in the battle for the Senate 2008.

2. New Mexico-If Pete Domenici retires, this becomes a marquee race that NM politicos have been talking about for years: Rep. Tom Udall (yes, another Udall-I believe they are cousins) will take on moderate Rep. Heather Wilson. The Dems best candidate would be Gov. Bill Richardson, who would even be able to defeat Domenici, but Udall is a good follow-up. If the statewide races of 2006 (which went almost exclusively blue) are any indication, Wilson could be in trouble, but she's a legendary campaigner and will definitely give Udall a run for his money.

Update: Domenici has announced that he will run again, which I still think could change (remember Jeffords and Nighthorse Campbell). However, if he does run again, this race starts to drop for a while. The Dems won't be able to get Udall, but Schumer will likely target Gov. Bill Richardson or Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who would be better candidates than Udall. Also, if those two fail, he may try the retiring Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron.

3. Louisiana-If there's one Democrat who is accustomed to close races, it is Sen. Mary Landrieu, who happens to be one of the few Southern Democrats still left in the U.S. Senate. There are two factors that are both terribly hurting and potentially helping Mary Landrieu. Hurting her terribly is Hurricane Katrina, and the question mark of whether or not black voters have dissipated to the point where this is a state that will be impossible for Democrats to win in. The goverenor's race will provide some clue. Helping her is the fact that her top opponent, Rep. Bobby Jindal proved before that he has trouble being elected statewide. Expect to hear a lot more on this race later.

4. Minnesota-Norm Coleman has the same problem and blessing of Mary Landrieu. He is in a state that recent trends show will make it damn near impossible for Republicans to win statewide. Coleman isn't popular, and will be seriously overshadowed by the well-liked Amy Klobuchar. However, I can't figure out who will run agaisnt him. Mike Hatch will consider it, but he's the Bobby Jindal equivalent in Minnesota-he just won't be able to win. Lori Swanson, Rebecca Otto, and Mark Ritchie are now the Dems rather impressive bench, but they were just elected to their positions, so they're likely out. Senate Leader Dean Johnson lost reelection, For. Auditor Judi Dutcher just lost the Lt. Governor race, and the House bench features a novice (Tim Walz), two partisan liberals (Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison), and two aging House chairmen (Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar). The Dems are going to need to find another Klobuchar lying around: perhaps they'll go with popular mayor R.T. Rybak, a female from the House leadership like Connie Bernardy or Ann Lenczewski (who is pro-life), or risk it with the waiting-in-line Betty Mccollum? Once those questions are answered, then we'll know about the challenge to Coleman.

5. New Hampshire-If this past cycle showed anything, it was that New England Republcians are an endangered species, and one-term Senator John Sununu has to be shaking in his boots. This is one of those races where it all comes down to one candidate: if fantastically popular governor John Lynch runs against him, he will start the race a severe underdog. Otherwise, Sununu would have to be favored. Expect a Draft Lynch movement to begin soon. Sununu has spent his first term keeping a well-balanced, moderate record, and will be able to honestly run as a centrist.

Update: Lynch claims that he won't be running for this seat. Granted, he could go after Gregg's seat in 2010 (that may be smarter, as, if Sununu loses in 2008, he'll likely retire). That severely limits the Democrats for 2008, as their best candidate is Jeanne Shaheen, who lost in 2002 (anyone know the last time a Senate rematch changed a seat)?

6. South Dakota-Like Sununu, this is a race that depends all on one governor, in this case Mike Rounds, the popular Republican incumbent. If Rounds runs against Tim Johnson in his quest for a third term, this will be the barn-burner of the cycle. However, if Johnson can avoid the Rounds challenge, he should be able to cruise to victory ala Stephanie Herseth this cycle.

7. Oregon-Gordon Smith is moderately popular, but Dems seem on a quest to purge blue states of Republican senators, and this certainly would be toward the top of blue state Republicans. John Kitzhaber, the former governor who remains popular, would be a fine candidate here, and would make this a tossup instantly. However, if Kitzhaber stays out, Smith will have a major advantage, as he is well-liked not only by the public, but also by fellow Sen. Ron Wyden (D).

8. Maine-I include this not because Collins is unpopuar, or, to be honest, all that vulnerable (she isn't). I put this in because Collins had stated in the past that she would only serve two terms in the Senate, and she may retire to become governor of Maine. If this happens, the Republicans have no bench in this state to run a candidate, and Rep. Tom Allen, the very liberal congressman who has been waiting patiently for one of the twins to leave office, will cruise to an easy victory here, giving another New England seat to the Democrats.

9. Virginia-John Warner is not going to lose. Despite Virginia's clear friendliness to vote Democratic as of late (Warner, Kaine, and Webb can attest), Warner is an institution in the state. However, if he decides that this is the time to retire, all eyes will be on For. Gov. Mark Warner, who will begged and pleaded with to run for the seat (Kaine would be a very strong, but definitely second place, choice). For the Republicans, Rep. Tom Davis has been waiting patiently for his turn at the Senate. Mark Warner would be the recruit of the cycle, and don't think that Chuck Schumer, who may chair the DSCC again, isn't already thinking about what committee slots he could dangle in front of his face.

Update: Rumors are swirling fast and hard that Warner will retire this cycle; if Schumer drafts Mark Warner to run here, consider it the biggest draft win of the cycle, the equivalent of Bob Casey, Jr. last cycle-otherwise, the Dems will have a slightly harder time picking this seat up.

10. Montana-Two things about this race could skyrocket it or push it into safe territory. If Max Baucus retires, Rep. Denny Rehberg will run for this seat, and this seat will in all likelihood be perched at number one for the rest of the cycle. However, if Baucus stays in office, he may be the only person who could take on a Rehberg challenge. If Rehberg doesn't challenge, this will drop off the top twenty, and Baucus will be as safe as can be.

11. Michigan-One of the Dems most vulnerable seats that became a lot less vulnerable after the latest election-Levin will likely run for reelection, and, as can be witnessed by Stabenow's recent strong win, the Dems have a stronghold with their incumbents. If Levin does retire, the Dems are scrapped; Granholm just won a tough reelection, which will make the bid for a Senate seat so soon seem opportunistic, John Cherry, her Lt. Governor, has been invisible most of this career, and Bart Stupak's the only congressman who could make a legitimate claim on this. Meanwhile, the Republicans have Rep. Candice Miller, Attorney General Michael Cox, and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. All in all, the Dems better pray that Levin stays in office.

12. Arkansas-I put this in, but I think in the next round, this will drop dramatically. Huckabee seems intent on running for president, and Pryor is more popular than Lincoln. Plus, Republicans just missed out on all four statewide offices, so their bench is completely tapped. The only reason this seat is so high is that if the GOP truly wants to regain the Senate, they will have to look at red state Dems like this.

13. New Jersey-Lautenberg, if he knows what's good for the Dems, would retire this cycle. The Dems could not be in a better position to pick up this seat: Bob Menendez just clobbered Tom Kean, Jr., the Republicans best candidate, and there's a great bench in Reps. Pallone, Andrews, and Holt. The Republicans have Charlie Cristie, the only GOP member who could actually win in New Jersey. As it is, though, Lautenberg will win, have a ten-point instead of the should-be twenty point victory, and New Jersey will continue to have two of the lowest-approved Senators.

14. North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole should have no trouble, should she stay in office, and avoid one candidate: Gov. Mike Easley. Sen. John Edwards won't run here, but I suspect Easley could be coaxed into it. Expect Chuck Schumer to go here, especially if New Mexico can't yield a candidate of quality.

15. West Virginia-Once again, expect a chorus of, "Shelley Moore Capito! Shelley Moore Capito!" Had the Dems not won back the Senate, Rockefeller would have retired and this would have been yet another Southern state that elected a Republican. However, Rockefeller will continue on, chairing his committee, and the Dems will win this again (and Moore Capito will have to wait...and wait...and wait).

16. Iowa-It's technically a red state, but I suspect that will be changed in 2008 (especially after the Culver/Braley/Loebsack/Boswell punch of 2006). Harkin won't retire now that he's a chairman, and though Republicans could put up defeated gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jim Nussle or Rep. Steve King, this will be an uphill fight for the GOP.

17. Delaware-I include this only because, should Joe Biden retire and Rep. Michael Castle run for the seat, the GOP could pick this up. Should Castle retire or Biden announce his reelection, this will drop easily out of the Top Twenty. As it is, I'll keep it simmering, seeing what seats may rise into the Top Twenty. FYI, if Biden does retire Treasurer Jack Markell or Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (his son) will be the frontrunners for the Dems.

18. Mississippi-Thad Cochran's at the top of the retirement lists, and while I can't imagine that the Dems could ever pick up a Senate seat in Mississippi, Atty. Gen. Mike Moore has been so bragged up through the years, I'm kind of curious to see what sort of margin he would receive. The Republican frontrunner would be Rep. Chip Pickering, but purportedly Rep. Roger Wicker, especially in the minority, doesn't want to sit around and crown Pickering, so we could be looking at a primary.

19. Oklahoma-In normal situations, Republicans wouldn't have a prayer of losing a federal race in Oklahoma, but if the Dems could convince Drew Edmondson or Brad Henry to run here, and if Inhofe lives up to his potential, we could see a Conrad Burns/Jim Bunning situation here. The Republicans lose (or almost lose) because of a truly awful incumbent.

20. Alaska-Only if Ted Retires will we see anything wrong here. However, Ted looks to be running again, so I'll just wait for another race to enter the Top Twenty. Look for this to drop next time.

New Senate Outlook

2006-10-22T07:36:00.000-07:00

The Senate list is getting tighter, more efficient-the Top Four are getting further and further away from the Republican's hold, and the next four are getting tighter and tighter together. Anything after Number Nine will be a HUGE upset, but considering the volatility of this year, I wouldn't doubt a surprise could happen.

1. Pennsylvania-Santorum seems to have faded into oblivion, and Bob Casey, Jr. has started to outraise the incumbent. This will probably be the Democrat's favorite moment of the night, defeating the poster child of the Religious Right. (1)

2. Montana-Burns is starting to gain, but Tester appears solidly over 50 percent. Burns only hope would be in that Bush has a net positive in Montana, one of the few states he can claim that over. (2)

3. Ohio-The Republicans are bailing out of Ohio, and insiders state that DeWine is down by double digits at this point. (3)

4. Rhode Island-Whitehouse has opened up a solid single digit lead over Chafee, and the national Republicans aren't even mentioning him in ad buys at the moment. What with Shays and Chafee potentially going down, could this cycle be the death of the New England Republican? (4)

5. Missouri-Claire McCaskill has started airing the most powerful ad of the cycle, featuring Michael J. Fox in an advanced state of Parkinson's Disease. This could be a make-or-break moment among independents, so look to see public opinion. (5)

6. Tennessee-Ford has done absolutely everything right in this race: kept his negatives down, made his Republican look on weak on almost every issue, and basically run the most flawless campaign of the cycle. If this race was in Michigan or Washington, it would be a done deal at this point. The only thing helping Corker is that guaranteed 47 percent that a Republican comes with in Tennessee. (6)

7. Virginia-I said last time that this could be one of the races that picks up if the challenger starts shooting forward. Jim Webb is that candidate. Allen, like Corker in Tennessee, starts this race with a guaranteed 47 percent. If the momentum continues, Allen will lose, but he only has sixteen days to catch up-will there be enough time? (8)

8. New Jersey-If momentum continues, the Republicans will have given up possibly their best shot of the cycle. Had Liddy Dole adopted Tom Kean's campaign earlier, they could have made Kean the boy wonder of the cycle. Instead, Menendez defined Kean and this is slowly becoming out-of-reach for the Republicans. Now, I won't say this is in stone for the D's (particularly because Menendez often let's his mouth start yapping), but at the moment, the most vulnerable D-seat is looking less and less vulnerable. (7)

9. Maryland-Polls range from being in the MOE to being a solid lead for Cardin. Either way, it's looking more and more like the Democrats will come home once more in Maryland to help oust the Republicans. Let's just hope that when Babs Mikulski retires, the Democrats put up someone more exhilerating than Cardin. (9)

10. Michigan-Stabenow's seat is suddenly becoming more and more in play, and I think if this was September instead of October, the Republicans would start pouring money into this race, but at this point they are only able to go on defense in VA, MO, and TN. (11)

11. Nebraska-I put this one next because Ben Nelson holds this seat on some sort of borrowed time. The Democratic wave will make him win, but I suspect he'll start stockpiling for 2012, when he'll have to go up against presidential race. Republicans are probably kicking themselves for not forcing Johanns, Nelson, or Heinemann into this race. (12)

12. Washington-Cantwell has done it-the National Republicans are dropping out of this race, Cantwell has a solid lead, and the wave will carry Cantwell into a second term. I'd recommend, if she wants to hold this seat for years to come, she should start connecting more with the voters ala Patty Murray. (10)

13. Arizona-The wave is the only thing keeping this on the table. This may end up being the Democrats one that got away, as Pederson probably won't be able to top 45 percent at this point. (13)

14. Nevada-The biggest mover on this list, not just because Carter has officially topped 40 percent, but because Gibbons scandal can't help Ensign in this race. One has to wonder how many scandals Ensign can juggle without falling. (18)

15. Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar seems inevitable at this point, as Mark Kennedy seems to be running one of the worst campaigns I've seen. The real question here is whether or not Minnesota, after the very blue 2004 and what could be another very blue 2006, has simply returned to its liberal roots (thus damaging severely Norm's chances in 2008). (14)

16. Vermont-Sanders continues to slide into the easiest open seat race of the cycle. (15)

17. West Virginia-Byrd, considering the current climate, would have been the Republicans' smartest investment, but they didn't give to Raese early enough this cycle to do any good and Byrd will be orating on the Senate floor for (god-willing) another six years. (16)

18. Connecticut-Lieberman's going to win, so let's hope that Reid et al. are planning on handing him a key committee assignment to keep him from migrating to the other side. (17)

19. Florida-Harris continues to sound like a better-looking Alan Keyes. Even in Florida, Keyes couldn't win, and Harris won't either. (19)

20. Hawaii-I'm moving this up more because Akaka, who may be wounded amongst moderates from the primary, lost a major newspaper announcement. He won't lose, but he probably may stay below 60 percent. (20)

House Race Outlook

2006-10-15T09:40:00.000-07:00

Here they are again, ranked from most likely to change to least likely. There are no new entrants this week (though if I had a list of forty, there would be several more very vulnerable Republicans seeping into it)

1. Arizona-8: Does anyone think that Graf can win? He's getting no bounce from the McCain endorsement, and Giffords basically has office space lined up. (1)

2. Texas-22: The ethical debate is going to help Lampson dramatically. Sekula-Gibbs's clock is ticking over trying to get her name out there... (5)

3. Pennsylvania-10: Sherwood's in the middle of a huge ethical scandal, and suddenly his opponent Chris Carney has opened a dramatic lead. This is the Dems to lose at this point. (3)

4. Florida-16: Tim Mahoney is leading in the latest polls, but the NRCC is spending a mint trying to hold this (possibly out of fear that Mahoney will turn into Melissa Bean). (2)

5. Indiana-8: The latest round of polls, another week of Ellsworth double-digit leads. Hostettler just this week started to campaign on television. (6)

6. Colorado-7: O'Donnell is closing the gap, but is it enough? Ritter's coattails could help here, but will the marginality of this district help at all for the GOP? (4)

7. Ohio-18: One of the biggest jumps this week, mainly because Joy Padgett has yet to gain a lead, despite having weeks to gain notoriety (err, name recognition). Bankruptcy and Ney floating into the news again only helps Space. (12)

8. Indiana-2: Donnelly continues to cruise to reelection in what has to be the oddest race of the cycle. (7)

9. Iowa-1: Polls are starting to align again for Democrat Braley, but Whalen seems to be able to turn the campaign very nasty. (8)

10. New York-26: Reynolds does not appear to have recovered from the Foley scandal, and Davis has yet to make any mistakes. (9)

11. Pennsylvania-6: The Murphy/Gerlach race isn't the lock that it used to be for the Democrats, but the reality is that this will go to whomever wins the House. If the Democrats win it back, it'll be Lois Murphy. If the Republicans hang on, it'll be Gerlach. (10)

12. Indiana-9: Unlike Donnelly and Ellsworth, Baron Hill is a known commodity and that makes this slightly more difficult for the Democrats. This is definitely third in Indiana, but the unfavorable conditions for Democrats there won't help Sodrel. (13)

13. Pennsylvania-7: Though the aftereffect of the Weldon scandal isn't completely known, my guess is that it won't be good. Look at what happened to Don Sherwood, Joy Padgett, etc. and you can see why Joe Sestak is so happy. (16)

14. Ohio-15: Every major pundit is starting to write off Deborah Pryce, and I don't know why-it seems like the best type of tossup. However, pundits tend to know these things, and Pryce certainly isn't gaining from the Foley scandal. (14)

15. Connecticut-2: It seems fitting that this is at fifteen-it's the seat that no one can gage. If the Democrats have any sort of wave, I'd suspect that this gets swept away. Otherwise, Simmons is a consummate campaigner. (11)

16. North Carolina-11: Rep. Charles Taylor is not doing well against Shuler in the light of the Culture of Corruption coming back to light. (15)

17. Connecticut-4: I was preparing to write this seat off until Chris Shays started to say more stupid things than Tom Reynolds. This was looking like a race that simply favored Shays because he's the incumbent, but now that there's a reason to vote him out of office... (26)

18. New York-24: Arcuri's getting good press over Meier, and no Republican is safe this cycle in New York. (19)

19. New Mexico-1: This will be one of the most fun seats on Election Night. One could make plausible arguments about either woman being ahead, and this may be the definitive bellwether district. (17)

20. Florida-22: Clay Shaw is in a mildly Democratic district that could fall as it neighbors the Foley district. Klein's a great campaigner, but Shaw's done this before. (18)

21. Florida-13: I'm guessing that this goes the same way as Shaw, as it has about the same reason to switch. Jennings is the real deal as a candidate, and Vern Buchanan is a bad campaigner. (20)

22. Illinois-6: If the Hastert angle of the Foley scandal resonates anywhere, it will be in this district. Duckworth is the one with all of the momentum, but will Roskam be able to sit on top of the GOP advantage? (21)

23. Wisconsin-8: Kagen appears to have all of the heat in this race, and if the Democrats win here, they'll easily be taking back the House. This is getting more and more on people's radar screens, and is a true tossup. (25)

24. Minnesota-6: If Wetterling's going to get in, will it be because of Foley's scandal or the burgeoning coattails that Amy Klobuchar is drawing? Every poll that shows that Kennedy is losing by double digits won't help Republican turnout in the most Republican district in Minnesota. (24)

25. Ohio-1: This doesn't have the same marquee value as Ohio 15 and 18, but for Republicans in Ohio, can Republicans rest on their laurels? (22)

26. Kentucky-4: Ken Lucas has stumbled a bit in the last couple of weeks, and unlike Ohio or Pennsylvania, there's no new races to get the vote out here. (27)

27. Washington-8: Both national parties are poring money into this race, and Burner is rising, but is it too late? (28)

28. Pennsylvania-8: In an odd move, a PA Republican is getting better buzz than a PA Democrat. Apparently, Fitzpatrick is running a fairly effective ad campaign. (23)

29. Virginia-2: Phil Kellam was headed to Congress before the assault charges, but Thelma Drake has to be breathing a lot easier at this point and praying that George Allen doesn't say anything stupid again. (29)

30. Connecticut-5: If this is a true wave, Nancy Johnson's effective campaign won't be able to work. Otherwise, Chris Murphy better start gunning for 2008. (30)

Five Ups, Five Downs

2006-10-13T07:24:00.000-07:00

On the rise:

1. New York Democrats: Spitzer, Clinton, and Cuomo are all cruising to a massive reelection. Tom Reynolds is falling faster than Superman coated in kryptonite. All of this adds up to vulnerable Republicans: it appears, according to a recent string of polls, it may be more than just NY-24 and NY-29: Sue Kelly, Peter King, and John Sweeney are all very vulnerable.

2. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives: Republicans have scaled back their ad wars in districts like Alan Mollohan's and John Spratt's, and once vulnerable Democrats are turning into safe bets for reelection. This also includes Charlie Wilson in Ohio-6, who may the easiest reelection of any candidate who was written off at some point in this cycle.

3. Claire McCaskill: McCaskill hit a historic and pivotal point in her campaign this last week: she cracked fifty percent in a poll, and in SurveyUSA no less! While it is still too soon to race this anything but a tossup, if this continues, it may join Rhode Island and Ohio as a race that everyone's calling a Tossup but is leaning to the Democrats.

4. Nancy Johnson-Another poll, another Johnson lead-Murphy just doesn't appear to be gathering enough traction this cycle, all of which is making it look like one CT Republican will be returning in November. Murphy better be hoping that Johnson retires in 2008, as that may be his only shot at winning this seat.

5. Mike DeWine-I list him not because he's leading in any polls, but because the Republicans are rumored to be spending $10 million to try to keep DeWine in the Senate. If you ask me, this would be smarter spent in New Jersey or Missouri, but to each his own.

On the fall:

1. Chris Shays-Just when he was cruising to a difficult, but increasingly certain reelection, he says one of the least intelligent comments of the cycle, saying that unlike Teddy Kenneddy, Mark Foley didn't kill anyone. There are no polls out right now, but it appears as if Shays calling a U.S. Senator a murderer won't help his race in liberal Connecticut.

2. Angie Paccione-The Democrats have started to pull money out of this race, which can only spell a loss for Paccione.

3. Curt Weldon-Already in a tight race, he's now in his own lobbying scandal. This could not have had worse timing for Weldon, who may have just used his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

4. Patrick Murphy-Apparently Mike Fitzpatrick's latest ad is a doozy, and Murphy could be labeled too young and inexperienced at this point.

5. Vern Buchanan-He's sinking his money into the race, and yet Jennings seems to have pulled a very real lead at this point in the wake of the Harris/Foley train wrecks.

New House Outlook

2006-10-10T18:49:00.000-07:00

Here is another take on the Top Thirty. Just one sentences here (check out my previous post for any more in depth analysis). (The previous rank is in parantheses)

1. Arizona-8: Giffords continues to cruise over Graf. The McCain endorsement just doesn't help. (1)

2. Florida-16: Ain't no way that Mark Foley's name is going to help Joe Negron. The Republicans basically should throw in the towel here. (NEW!)

3. Pennsylvania-10: Another scandal-plagued incumbent, Sherwood looks destined for failure to Carney. (21)

4. Colorado-7: Despite a closing of the gap, the fact that Bill Ritter will win here over incumbent Beauprez spells disaster for O'Donnell. (3)

5. Texas-22: Sekula-Gibbs needed a massive amount of money that the National GOP won't give her. (2)

6. Indiana-8: Ellsworth's law enforcement credentials could be a big help in this race. (7)

7. Indiana-2: Joe Donnelly continues to lead Rep. Chris Chocola in one of the most unexplainable races of the cycle (9)

8. Iowa-1: The Zogby poll still throws me, and until the Dems counter, I'll be dropping this race. (4)

9. New York-26: If any member of the House leadership is going down, it will be Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has ran an absolutely abysmal apology campaign (NEW!)

10. Pennsylvania-6: Lois Murphy has started to air ads, and appears to be following the Debbie Stabenow method of flooding the airwaves in the last four weeks. It could work... (6)

11. Connecticut-2: Those most conservative ads are going to hurt Rep. Simmons in this highly partisan atmosphere. (8)

12. Ohio-18: Basically, Joy Padgett is stewing in a sea of corrupt names: now she has to deal with Hastert, Boehner, and Foley to go along with Bush, Taft, and Ney. (17)

13. Indiana-9: The sudden demotion is brought on by an only two point lead for Hill over Sodrely in the latest SurveyUSA poll (5)

14. Ohio-15: Almost every pundit is writing this with Kilroy having an advantage, and the drubbing of the House leadership can't help Pryce (16).

15. North Carolina-11: Again, scandal can't help incumbent Taylor against Shuler. (18)

16. Pennsylvania-7: The NRCC spent a solo weak of spending just against Sestak instead of Murphys squared. That says something about the competitiveness here (26).

17. New Mexico-1: This has actually been an improvement week for Madrid (good polling), but the top fifteen suddenly became more competitive (12).

18. Florida-22: Shaw was running a good campaign, but now he has to tackle the Foley scandal (19).

19. New York-24: Arcuri had a non-scandal last week, but not all press is good press, and in a race this close, everything matters (10).

20. Florida-13: Polls show a wounded Vern Buchanan (R) losing to Christine Jennings (D). The stench of both current incumbent Katherine Harris's Senate campaign, along with neighboring district FL-16 with Foley makes Jennings a white hot candidate right now. This is the only district not directly associated with Foley that's been added this time (NEW!)

21. Illinois-6: Tammy Duckworth has an uphill battle against a non-scandalized GOPer in this red district, but she's kept it microscopic. (20)

22. Ohio-1: Anyone in Ohio should be troubled right now, and that includes Steve Chabot (24).

23. Pennsylvania-8: Will the Rendell/Casey landslides be able to bring the three Philly suburbs along with it? (13)

24. Minnesota-6: The Foley scandal has apparently helped Wetterling close the gap, but will she have the extra oomph to get that final five percent? (25)

25. Wisconsin-8: The gay marriage ban may ultimately elect Gard, but right now Republicans are doing horribly in open seats (27)

26. Connecticut-4: A big demotion, but Shays may be too liberal to lose, and Lieberman is clearly not helping things for the Democrats (11).

27. Kentucky-4: Lucas made a derogatory comment about gays, which isn't the best way to fundraise with liberal donors (14).

28. Washington-8: Dave Reichert still has the edge in this moderate WA district (22)

29. Virginia-2: The Phil Kellam battery scandal will likely sink his candidacy: I'm waiting for polls to back this up (15)

30. Connecticut-5: This is one of the nastiest campaigns of the cycle. Let's not remember what happened to Johnson in 1996 because of links to the GOP leadership (29).

I chose NY-26 and FL-16 to add for obvious reasons-the Foley scandal basically gave the Democrats these two seats. FL-13 is just a hunch, but polls appear to be backing me up.

Here's why I dropped these three:

Georgia-12: With all the money being spent saving Republican incumbents, I doubt that they'll have much left over to pick up this risky venture.

Vermont-AL: Rainville's links to the GOP leadership, however remote, kill her chances in this liberal year/district.

Colorado-4: This was sitting at number 31, I swear, and could still turn.

Five Ups, Five Downs

2006-10-10T17:39:00.000-07:00

Here's a look at five ups and five downs in this year's elections

Who's Up:

1. Amy Klobuchar-Republicans may spin it any way they want, but both national parties backing out of this race can only spell Senator Amy Klobuchar come November.

2. Second/Third Tier Female Democrats Challenging Republican Men-If the Foley scandal helps anyone, it's women runnning against Republican men. I'm thinking of people like Vic Wulsin, Nancy Boyda, Linda Stender, and Ellen Simon, amongst others, who will receive a three-four point increase because of this.

3. George Allen-There's no doubt that he's taking a little bit of a lead now in Virginia, and with only four weeks left, the DSCC better hope that their ad campaign is effective.

4. Christine Jennings-Somehow she's come out of nowhere and may be able to make Katherine Harris's follies plus Mark Foley's scandal turn into a win for her come November. The polls show she's not to be underestimated.

5. Patty Wetterling-Her opponent doesn't believe in global warming, and the Foley scandal is the complete antithesis to her lifetime of public service on behalf of children.

Who's Down:

1. Lincoln Chafee-The Republicans are funding in OH, TN, and MO for the next four weeks; this doesn't bode well for Linc, who was counting on national Republican money. Is the Democratic wave just too strong for him to hold up in super blue RI?

2. John Baldacci-One Democratic incumbent will go down come Election Night-the irratic nature of Maine voters and his near tie right now make him a prime candidate.

3. Ned Lamont-Lieberman has an almost insurmountable lead right now, and the DSCC won't spend a dime supporting Lamont when the likes of Ford, Menendez, and McCaskill need it more.

4. Dick DeVos-The latest bunch of polls show that Granholm has started a just outside the MOE lead. Her charisma may pull it out over his businessman like style.

5. Tim Pawlenty-Suddenly, this race has Hatch leading and everyone's shifting this to tossup categories. Ill feelings for Republicans can't help in still fairly blue Minnesota.

Governors Outlook

2006-10-07T13:42:00.000-07:00

And here is part three, the governor's outlook. Like before, these are ranked from most likely to turn over to least likely to turn over. The Democrats seem to have taken the first six rather handily, and then it's basically a sea of vulnerable Democratic seats, that, if the wave hits, likely won't come to fruition. The real question is, will the Republicans be able to keep their hemmoraging to the top six, or will there be problems with a low ranking race that will emerge as an upset.

1. New York-The real question is not whether Eliot Spitzer will win (he will, replacing Gov. George Pataki and giving the Democrats the statehouse for the first time since Mario Cuomo), but will he have coattails? Not just for Andrew Cuomo (running for attorney general), but for the races against Reynolds, Kelly, Sweeney, Walsh, and the rest in the U.S. House, not to mention the State Senate. If he does, he'll suddenly have a bunch of new friends in New York.

2. Ohio-Who would have thought that Rep. Ted Strickland nearly turned down the race for Republican Gov. Bob Taft's? He's now about to become a governor of arguably the most important electoral state in the nation. In the polls, it appears that he's leading Attorney General Kenneth Blackwell by easy double digits, some showing as high as a twenty point lead. The situation in the GOP is so bad that the Democrats are going to actually have constitutional officers after this election-meaning that they'll have a bench for the first time in a decade.

3. Massachusetts-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) got what she wanted, and I think she has the buyer's remorse. Suddenly, Deval Patrick (D), the Democrat who appeared out of nowhere but rode a liberal wave to the Democratic nomination, appears unstoppable. As the only black governor, he'll certainly have a good deal of press during his first term, and I suspect that there will be less of a push to outlaw gay marriage in MA come Gov. Mitt Romney's retirement.

4. Colorado-The state that has turned from deep red to purple to downright navy in less than three years is going to elect a Democratic governor in the form of Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter. The fact is, unlike in 2004, where Pete Coors was a truly hideous candidate, the Republicans have a proven candidate this year in Rep. Bob Beauprez, but the Democrats are just unstoppable here. The real test in this state won't be the governor's race, it will be the constitutional offices, two of which are open and one was filled in 2005 by an appointee. If the Democrats can take any of these, I suspect this state will go for the Democrats for president in 2008.

5. Arkansas-Mike Beebe shouldn't be able to win this so easily. Despite being a popular Democratic attorney general, the governor of Arkansas is just as popular, and he's a Republican. His opponent is Rep. Asa Hutchison, who in theory would be just as good of a candidate as Beebe. And yet, Beebe is going to win-there's little to no doubt about it. The margin of victory is in question, but the victory, that seems certain.

6. Maryland-Pity poor Bob Ehrlich. He's done nothing wrong, other than had a little R behind his name. That's enough for Democratic rising star Martin O'Malley, mayor of Baltimore, to take the lead and could soon take the statehouse. Ehrlich could still pull this off, but with each passing scandal, O'Malley gets closer to winning. Democrats better hope, however, that O'Malley and Cardin coordinate, as either one could fall victim to low turnout if the African American vote is ticked off this cycle in Maryland.

7. Oregon-I'm ranking Oregon above Number Eight simply because no one else is, but the fact is, this could just as easily be ranked Number Eight. Kulongoski's one ace-in-the-whole is that this is very much a Democratic year, and even though he's unpopular, he's got the liberal Oregon thing going for him. Ron Saxton, his State Senator opponent, could be this cycle's Dino Rossi, though, so Kulongoski better be on his guard.

8. Jennifer Granholm was, four years ago, the future of the Democratic party. This year, it appears that she's in the fight of her political life-businessmen Dick DeVos has been running an incredible race and the Michigan economy is in the dumps. However, recent polling has shown Granholm taking a small lead, which makes me wonder if she'll be able to pull this off at the last minute based on her character (not the issues).

9. Minnesota-I push this up higher than most pundits because conventional wisdom is being defied in this race with every passing poll-Mike Hatch is within the margin of error of Gov. Tim Pawlenty in almost every poll done in this race, and the most recent Rasmussen poll shows Hatch with a four-point lead. I suspect that if there is a Democratic wave in 2006, this will be a good bellwether race. This may, in fact, be the only Republican race susceptible to the wave-the first six are going there whether Republicans like it or not-Minnesota's a true tossup.

10. Iowa-Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring (possibly to run for president), and there was a time that this was the most vulnerable Democratic statehouse. Now, with the Mark Foley scandal potentially hurting Rep. Jim Nussle (R), and all polls showing a small but potent lead for Secretary of State Chet Culver, I move it to third place. If the national environment improves for the GOP, I'll move this up, but for now, I think that Culver will become a very, young, tall, attractive potential national candidate in November.

11. Maine-I still believe that Gov. John Baldacci (D) will pull this off (if only in the national environment), but State Sen. Chuck Woodcock (insert your own joke) has made this much more of a race than it had a right to be. This could be the sleeper victory that Republicans are praying for.

12. Wisconsin-Rep. Mark Green was already embroiled in scandal, but now that all House members are underfire for supporting Dennis Hastert/John Boehner, Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has a little breathing room.

13. Rhode Island-Another potential upset (like Maine), but I suspect that the Republicans will end up on the winning side here. Gov. Don Carcieri is too conservative to be elected to a national office from RI, but liberals are more accepting in their statehouses.

14. Nevada-Like Rhode Island, this has a potential to upset, but it'll be a tough race. Rep. Jim Gibbons is just too powerful, too well-known to lose to liberal State Sen. Dina Titus. The national environment will keep this within ten points though.

15. Illinois-Gov. Rod Blagojevich should be going down (considering his approval ratings), but Judy Baar Topinka, despite being the best candidate for the job, has run a crappy campaign-she'll lose, and the Democrats will have another four years of power in Springfield.

16. Alaska-Much like IL, in theory this should be much closer, but Mayor Sarah Palin (R) has put an incredible margin between herself and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).

17. Florida-You'd think in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, the Democratic House member running for governor, Rep. Jim Davis, would be able to gain on Attorney General Charlie Crist (R). He can't, and he'll be a lobbyist in a year.

18. Idaho-The fact that Rep. Butch Otter hasn't completely put this away shows that the Republican national environment is really bad. Otter will win, but it will be closer than you'd think.

19. Texas-I put this here not because Perry will lose, but because with Strayhorn, Friedman, and Bell exchanging second place, it'll be a very unpredictible result.

20. California-Arnold would have lost a year ago. But the Democrats nominated the abysmal Phil Angelides, and Arnold will be starring in a sequel to his first term.

21. South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
22. Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
23. Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (D)
24. Vermont-Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
25. Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
26. Arizona-Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
27. Connecticut-Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
28. Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)
29. Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
30. Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
31. Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
32. New Hampshire-Gov. John Lynch (D)
33. Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (R)
34. South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
35. New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (D)
36. Nebraska-Gov. Dave Heinemann (R)

Senate Outlook

2006-10-07T07:36:00.000-07:00

In part two of my three part look at Election 2006, I'll be examining the ten seats most likely to switch in the U.S. Senate. As it was with the House races, the Number One seat is most likely to switch, going to least likely to switch at number ten.

1. Pennsylvania-I toyed with putting this at number two, and a month ago that's where it would have been, but as it is, I am positive of one thing in November: Bob Casey will send the most controversial Republican in the Senate back to Pennsylvania. Liberal activists will rejoice and conservative activists will weep, but Rick Santorum will be sent home after one of the oddest Senate terms in recent memory, where he basically ticked off everyone with a pulse. Casey will certainly be a much-watched senator, the first Democrat elected to a full-term in Pennsylvania since 1962.

2. Montana-This could just as easily be number one, as there is little doubt in my mind that it'll end up going to the challenger, State Senator Jon Tester. Tester has run a rather impressive populist campaign this cycle, especially considering that he's more liberal than the Montana electorate. However, when you're running against an incumbent as scarred as Sen. Conrad Burns, your political ideology might not matter much. With his flannel shirts, blue jeans, and buzz haircut, Tester doesn't look that much like a senator, but come January, he'll be one.

3. Ohio-Who would have thought that Mike DeWine's career would be on its final legs a year ago? Not I, but that's the way it's headed. Sherrod Brown, like Tester, is slightly to the left of the electorate, but that doesn't seem to matter-he's run a superb populist campaign, and appears to be ahead of DeWine. People have often grouped this race with Races Number Five and Seven on this list, but I actually think that this isn't much of a bellwether for Repubicans-any GOP member in Ohio this cycle is running on borrowed time, and DeWine looks to be one of potentially many casualties.

4. Rhode Island-Speaking of borrowed time, any Republican, even if they are as liberal as Sen. Lincoln Chafee, knows that there political career could end at any moment in the bluest state in the nation, Rhode Island. I feel this is the case in Rhode Island this year, as Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse has maintained a small but real lead in the race headed to November. While Whitehouse has an ample base to draw from, Chafee has to deal with dissatisfaction with Bush/Frist/Hastert, the Foleygate, and a lukewarm base brought on by a tough primary in September. Should Whitehouse win this seat in November, expect him to hold it for as long as possible (and for Patrick Kennedy and Jim Langevin to kick themselves for giving up a Senate seat).

5. Missouri-Races 5-7 are where the Senate lies. The first four races, to a lesser or greater degree, favor the challenger (thus theoretically giving the Democrats four seats). The Democrats, however, need a net gain of six seats and still need to hold all of their seats. Should they take seats 5-7, which is a very real possibility at this point, they'll take back the Senate in one of most impressive underdog races I've ever seen.

One of the three races they'll need will be Missouri, and anyone who says that this race leans any way but tossup is just blinded by partisanship. Sen. Jim Talent (R), who filled out a partial term after a special election in 2002, is running his third air-tight race in six years against State Auditor Claire McCaskill. The conventional wisdom here is that McCaskill has a guaranteed 48 percent of the vote, she just needs those last three percent. The latest round of polls show her with a one-two point edge, which may be enough, but I'm reluctant to call anything in this race that has seesawed the entire cycle.

6. Tennessee-I'm going out on a limb and putting this at six when it would be just as easy to put it in position number seven, but like I said, 5-7 are interchangeable. In Bill Frist's open seat (and what's it going to say about his presidential ambitions if he can't hold a red seat in a red state?), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. has been running arguably the best campaign of the cycle, and Mayor Bob Corker has been running the worst. This has led to Ford having a slight lead, despite TN's clear Republican advantage. One has to wonder if and how race will factor in this, as Ford would become the first black man to be elected to the South in the Senate since Reconstruction. In a race this tight, everything from Foley to Gov. Phil Bredeson's (D) coattails to the tempestous turnout battle in Ford's home district could be a factor. If the Democrats win here, they'll have their sixth pickup. That is, if they can hold...

7. New Jersey-Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is easily the most endangered Democrat running for reelection in Congress. Corruption allegations have been slung at him and State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., has turned this into the nastiest Senate battle in the country. If the election had been held two weeks ago, Kean would have been headed to the Senate. As it sits now, it's basically a coin toss. The latest set of polls show that the ball is headed back into Menendez's court, as notoriously fickle NJ Democrats are starting to return to the base in the wake of the Foley scandal. This may be just enough to push Menendez into a full-term in the Senate, but I'm not ready to call it. Like I said, this, as well as Missouri and Tennessee, are the only pure tossups in the Senate races-if the Democrats manage to keep their good fortunes alive, they may take all three and give Harry Reid the majority.

8. Virginia-The following three all have various degrees of advantage for the incumbent, but could potentially fall if the challengers pick up some wind. This one is the most-likely of the three, particularly because it's the only of the three to feature a Republican incumbent. Sen. George Allen has maintained a small, but real lead over Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb. However, Allen's bumbles have been numerous, ranging from macaca comments to ham sandwich jokes, and he's basically ticked off any Democrat who would have potentially crossed over to vote for him. Webb's over $3 million raised in the last quarter will surely help him in the final days, and I suspect that this race will continue to garner bad press for Allen, but this does appear to be the one bright spot on the GOP map at the moment. However, Allen's chances at succeeding Bush went from very bright to nonexistent in the course of this campaign.

9. Maryland-Rep. Ben Cardin (D) is not as exciting as Lt. Governor Michael Steele, but that likely won't matter in the upcoming month. With Republicans everywhere getting a bad rap, Steele's conservatism won't be able to fly in blue state Maryland. The only reason that this race remains in the top ten and hasn't been delegated to the ranks of Vermont/Minnesota is that, aside from the fact that Cardin's recent lead is in fact recent, the question of the black vote is in play here. Will African-Americans turn out in November, even though two prominent African-Americans lost primary races to white men in September? There's no way of knowing, but I suspect that Cardin will be able to get out the vote enough to carry himself to a first-term in the Senate.

10. Washington-I toyed with putting any of the next three races here, but I suspect that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is the most vulnerable of the four. At one point, she seems destined to love to businessman Mike McGavick, but as the race has played out, it seems that Washington doesn't want to send a Republican to D.C., whether or not Cantwell is too moderate for them. Cantwell could still lose this race, particularly if the heat from her involvement with Aaron Dixon continues, but I'm starting to feel that a 7-9 point victory is in order for this accidental senator. Should Cantwell win, she'll likely be able to use her increased seniority over the next six years to establish a better working relationship with WA's Democratic voters, and therefore have easier reelections.

As for the other seats, here they are ranked (I put in some comments, but no in depth commentary, as all of the incumbent parties have a decided edge).

11. Michigan-Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) once looked vulnerable, but Republican troubles will outweigh economic woes in Michigan, and she'll win a second term (and like Cantwell, likely use it to increase voter awareness of herself, as she was also an "accidental" senator).

12. Nebraska-Sen. Ben Nelson (D), as a Democrat in Nebraska, always has to be careful, but should win this race rather handily.

13. Arizona-Sen. Jon Kyl (R) caught a big break when the DSCC decided to shift its funding of Jim Pederson to races like VA, MO, and TN.

14. Minnesota-Succeeding Sen. Mark Dayton (D) will be Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D), as Rep. Mark Kennedy's (R) campaign has set new levels of ineptitude.

15. Vermont-Rep. Bernie Sanders (Independent who will side with the Democrats) looked like he'd have a close call for a second there, but his base has returned and he'll be one of potentially many Democratic freshmen this cycle.

16. West Virginia-Sen. Robert Byrd (D) will take this once competitive race handily. Republicans probably should have targeted this race more, as Byrd's age could have been the Senate equivalent of the Iowa-3 race.

17. Connecticut-This will stay with the Democrats in one way or another (unless Lieberman switches parties, which I doubt will happen), but Joe's Senate run may cause an increased Republican turnout, therefore jeopardizing challengers Farrell, Courtney, and Murphy.

18. Nevada-Certainly no Republican in a mildly competitive race should let his guard down, but Sen. John Ensign's (R) run against Jack Carter in all likelihood will end with a ten point victory for the Republicans.

19. Florida-If Sen. Bill Nelson (D) didn't have it easy enough, polls show that Rep. Katherine Harris's home district will go to a Democrat and Florida will likely be roiled by the Foley scandal most heavily.

20. Maine-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R)-Snowe will almost certainly win, but you have to wonder-if State Senator Michael Brennan or Rep. Tom Allen had run against Snowe this cycle, I suspect that she'd be in the fight of her political life right now.

21. New York-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
22. New Mexico-Sen. Jeff Bingamann (D)
23. Hawaii-Sen. Daniel Akaka (D)
24. Texas-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
25. North Dakota-Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
26. Delaware-Sen. Tom Carper (D)
27. Utah-Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)
28. California-Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)
29. Wisconsin-Sen. Herb Kohl (D)
30. Wyoming-Sen. Craig Thomas (R)
31. Massachusetts-Sen. Edward Kennedy (D)
32. Mississippi-Sen. Trent Lott (R)
33. Indiana-Sen. Richard Lugar (R)-Like Snowe, you have to wonder if the Democrats had been able to recruit a top notch candidate (like, say, former Rep. Tim Roemer) here, would they be headed to another victory? Considering the loathing of Republicans in Indiana right now, I'd guess yes.

House Ups and Downs

2006-10-02T17:42:00.000-07:00

Here at a glance, is a list of people who will be moving soon onto our list, moving up it, or falling down from it:

Movin On Up:

Florida-16: No race's dynamics changed faster last week than Mark Foley's race against Tim Mahoney. In a matter of days, a seat that was on no one's radar has suddenly shuttled to the top ten Democratic pickups. I suspect that this race leans Mahoney as it is, and could very well take other Republicans down with it. Which gets me to...

New York-26: John Boehner, John Shimkus, and Dennis Hastert may all be linked to the Foley Scandal, but Tom Reynolds is the only one who has a race that could be potentially divisive. Jack Davis will certainly be bringing up the Foley Scandal, and if the Republicans keep fumbling it (particularly Carl Forti taking Foley's funds), Reynolds could find himself funding his own race.

New Mexico-1: Patricia Madrid has pulled into a tie with Heather Wilson, according to the Research and Polling poll, which is bad news for Wilson. The Dems and the challengers will have an edge, and Wilson may have to fend off the Foley scandal as well, if it continues to target Hastert. Richardson and Bingamann will both have big coattails-this could be magic number fifteen.

Not So Competitive:

Vermont-AL: No new polls, but in the super liberal Vermont-AL district, I doubt a scandal involving the Republican House leadership is going to help Martha Rainville. Of all the vulnerable Democratic seats, a reminder of the Republican leadership is most going to hurt here. Welch should be headed toward Washington soon.

Connecticut-4: Diane Farrell is down in the latest U of Conn poll. One of the Republicans from Connecticut is going down, but will it be Simmons instead of Shays? If Farrell can get this tied by Labor Day, the Democratic wave and the influx of Lamont voters will pull her over the edge, but a five-point deficit will not work well for her.

Pennsylvania-6: Polls show Gerlach taking a lead, and where the hell are Murphy's television ads? The environment, both statewide and nationally, are all there for Lois Murphy-if she loses this race, it is completely her fault.

House Outlook

2006-09-23T10:35:00.000-07:00

We interrupt the long pause away from movies for three updates on the state of the Congress. This is part one, the House.

For those of you wishing to see what's going on in the fight for the nation's Congress, take a look at these races. I winnowed it down to the Top 30 most vulnerable seats. The big thing to know this cycle is that, if the Democrats continue to capitalize on their rather illustrious and impressive wave, there will be seats sitting below this list that may be in play. Typically, in an election cycle, a political analyst is lucky to have ten seats change hands. This year, every one of these thirty seems to have the potential to be in play. A brief analysis is presented here, with number one being the seat most likely to switch.

1. Arizona-8: After Randy Graf's victory in the Republican primary over more moderate Steve Huffman, this is the Democrats race to lose. Gabrielle Giffords is a moderate woman who has a vast appeal, and the outgoing incumbent GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe refuses to endorse Graf. The NRCC yanked money out of the race once Graf won, making it look like they'll be giving up on the race. Graf also has received press for his association with white suprematist David Duke. All of this may mean a huge influx of moderates coming out in support of Giffords (possibly enough to effect other races).

2. Texas-22: With Tom DeLay scandal-plagued and no official Republican on the ballot, a write-in campaign by Sheila Sekula-Gibbs would require a perfect storm. However, Republicans this cycle can't afford a perfect storm, and therefore the Democrats will be able to take this with Former Rep. Nick Lampson.

3. Colorado-7: Bob Beauprez is running incredibly poorly statewide, and may even lose his home district of CO-7. This can't be good for Rick O'Donnell, who already has an uphill battle against State Sen. Ed Perlmutter.

4. Iowa-1: Like Beauprez in Colorado, Rep. Jim Nussle continues to struggle in his statewide run for governor. Likewise, the Republican running to replace him, Mike Whalen, can't quite overcome the Democratic advantages of this cycle, leaving room for attorney Bruce Braley to have some success.

5. Indiana-9: This race, the third in a line of rematches, looks to be very advantageous for the Democrats. Rep. Mike Sodrel is forced to run against For. Rep. Baron Hill, who lost the seat in the Bush wave of 2004. This year, however, the Democrats are on the offense and Hill seems like a more seasoned politico, which should help over the finishing line.

6. Pennsylvania-6: If there is a bellwether district in the country, it is this race. Democrat Lois Murphy is running against incumbent Rep. Dan Gerlach for the second time. Last cycle, Murphy barely lost to Gerlach in this incredibly moderate district. This year, with the popular Gov. Ed Rendell cruising to reelection and Democrats movitaved to vote out Rick Santorum, Murphy may have the ingredients for a victory.

7. Indiana-8: John Hostettler may have had more close calls than any other incumbent in Washington, and 2006 is proving to be another one. However, Brad Ellsworth has slowly been able to become his toughest race to date, and Hostettler has the unpopularity of Bush and Gov. Mitch Daniels in Indiana. Currently, I suspect that Ellsworth is leading, but this race is far from over.

8. Connecticut-2: The latest from this race is a gaffe upon the part of Rob Simmons, who looked like a fool over the Garton sub base by attacking Courtney for his contributions. Courtney appears to have won this battle, and continues to chide Simmons for being the most conservative member of CT's delegation-not good in a district that is naturally blue.

9. Indiana-2: Rep. Chris Chocola who rode a strong wave four years ago to beat Former Rep. Jill Long Thompson may be kicked out on a wave this year. He's been running poorly for nearly a year now against Joe Donnelly. Were it not for the huge surprise of the competitiveness of this race, I'd have this in the top five. As it is, Donnelly's in a very good situation right now.

10. New York-24: I put this higher than others simply because, with Spitzer and Clinton dominating the political landscape, I don't think many Republicans will be turning out to support non-entities. Therfore, District Attorney Mike Arcuri may be able to ride coattails against State Sen. Ray Meier.

11. Connecticut-4: If there is one person the Lamont v. Lieberman race is going to help, it's Diane Farrell. Lamont scored big in this district, the most liberal seat held by a Republican in Congress. Rep. Chris Shays has to play from both sides on the Iraq War issue, and Farrell seems to have gained some ground from her surprisingly close victory in 2004.

12. New Mexico-1: This comes down to whether Patricia Madrid, who has had some heat in her corner over ethical charges regarding her investigation of State Treasurer Robert Vigil, can ride the Democratic wave over Rep. Heather Wilson, who typically can pull through tight races. If Wilson goes down in 2006, expect the Democrats to pick up Sen. Pete Domenici's seat in 2008.

13. Pennsylvania-8: Like Lois Murphy (No. 6), Patrick Murphy is going to benefit from a Democratic wave. His race against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who won his first race against unseasoned amateur, is turning heads in Washington and is being highly targeted. Patrick Murphy, an Iraq War veteran, may be the Democrats best shot at getting a military personnel into office.

14. Kentucky-4: Geoff Davis (R), the first-term representative from this district, is running against his predecessor. Some may say that Davis will have incumbency on his side, but polls indicate that Ken Lucas, the three-term representative from this district, has the lead. Plus, some voters may think Lucas is still the incumbent, which will help the Democrats.

15. Virginia-2: Thelma Drake, a first-term Republican, has found herself in a dilly of a pickle in this Virginia district. Her competitor, Phil Kellam, has gained grounds against her, mostly due to the unfavorability of the current administration. Drake is one of the great bellwether Republicans: if she goes down, it will be a long night for the GOP.

16. Ohio-15: Mary Jo Kilroy, a Democratic County Commissioner, is running the race of her life against Rep. Deborah Pryce, a longtime incumbent and member of the Republican House leadership. The unpopularity of Gov. Bob Taft and Bush in Ohio makes this a potential cog in a Democratic wave.

17. Ohio-18: Not only does State Sen. Joy Padgett have to deal with the unpopularity of Bush and Governor Taft (whose administration she was part of), but she has to deal with the Poster Boy for corrupt GOP behavior, Rep. Bob Ney, who was just indicted in the Jack Abramoff scandal. This is all good for Zach Space, the young Democrat running against her and who continually leads in this district.

18. North Carolina-11: The only reason I don't have this higher is that embattled incumbent Rep. Charlie Taylor (R) constantly receives great challenges, only to pull off victory at the last minute. Former Pro Football Player Heath Shuler is hoping that he won't fall into the pitfalls of history here.

19. Florida-22: Rep. Clay Shaw has faced many challengers before, but none quite as dept as State Sen. Ron Klein. Shaw is one of the few Republicans who may be able to have coattails this year, however, with Charlie Crist dominating Rep. Jim Davis in the race for governor of Florida. Klein's going to need a solid Get-Out-the-Vote effort in order to take this, but I suspect that national Democrats are willing to make the push here.

20. Illinois-6: Has there been a more publicized candidate this cycle than Tammy Duckworth, the disabled Iraq War veteran who has gained support from national Democrats everywhere and has all of the personality and chutzpah against bland State Sen. Peter Roskam? I can't think of one, which makes me wonder if Duckworth will have considerable crossover appeal amongst soccer moms; she'll need it in this inherently Republican district.

21. Pennsylvania-10: On the one hand, College Professor Chris Carney is far too second tier to legitimately make a challenge for this seat, held by Rep. Don Sherwood. However, Sherwood's scandals, coupled with his weak primary showing and relatively poor campaign leaves an open for Carney to swoop in if there is a wave.

22. Washington-8: Polls are fairly divergent in this race, though Rep. Dave Reichert, a first-term Republican, does seem to have an edge over Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Any coattails that happen in this race, however, will go to Burner, who should be able to count on a 1-2 point bump from national trends in liberal Washington, so if they're tied on Election Day, expect this to be a nailbiter.

23. Georgia-12: The most vulnerable House district held by Democrats this cycle, Rep. John Barrow's future is uncertain not because of national trends or local trends, but simply because his district changed to a midterm redrawing in Georgia. No polls have been recently in this race, and I still suspect Barrow to pull it off over Former Rep. Max Burns, but this could get tight.

24. Ohio-1: John Cranley, the Democratic challenger who came out of nowhere to be basically tied with Rep. Steve Chabot, is yet another Ohio Democrat hoping that a wave will push him into office. If Ohio can shove Kilroy, Space, and Cranley into office, don't just expect a Democratic House, but expect a very stong majority in a Democratic House.

25. Minnesota-6: No race has more polar opposites in candidates: State Sen. Michelle Bachmann is a polished politician with a platform to the very extreme right. On the other hand, Patty Wetterling is a liberal candidate who is incredibly popular, but isn't a consumate politican. Wetterling's celebrity status as a supporter of child safety will bring her a much closer race than should be expected of a Democrat in this district, but it'll take a Bachmann gaffe (which she's prone to doing) to really give this to the DFL.

26. Pennsylvania-7: Republican internal polling shows this race strongly in favor of Rep. Curt Weldon, but Democratic optimism and the overall trend in PA make me keep it for the time being. Weldon's going to need to keep the gap close in independent polling to have a shot in this race. This race will entirely depend on how Bush is seen in late October.

27. Wisconsin-8: Considering that Rep. Mark Green's base of support is in this district, and that he is running for governor, one would hope that he'd be able to bring out enough voters to give State Speaker John Gard an easy victory. However, Green is starting to flounder statewide, and Gard's negatives are being driven up quickly enough that Dr. Steve Kagen (D), may have a legitimate shot here.

28. Vermont-AL: Martha Rainville is a smart, competent, pedigreed candidate in this race with a moderate image. She also has an (R) behind her name, and that may be her undoing in the uber-liberal Vermont. State Sen. Peter Welch is hoping so, though polling shows that Welch and Rainville are running tight. Rainville will need a bit of a lead here in order to take it, as there will surely be an at least 2-3 point anti-Bush crowd coming out. It is Vermont, after all. This is the only other Democratic-held seat I have on the list (aside from No. 23)

29. Connecticut-5: Rep. Nancy Johnson is a long-running incumbent who has vanquished several important challenger in the past. State Sen. Chris Murphy may be the most impressive she's faced, however, and though she has a slight lead in the race, if the Democratic moon is full in CT, Murphy could make it three for three with challengers in the state.

30. Colorado-4: I could have included another Democratic-held seat (Melissa Bean's tough race in Illinois-8 comes to mind), or a longer shot (Idaho-1 or Wyoming-AL, perhaps?), but I decided to go with Angie Paccione, who was just put on the Red-to-Blue list and has been running well against archconservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave came a lot closer to losing last time than initially anticipated, and now she has a better challenger, so who knows?

70. Topol (Fiddler on the Roof)

2006-05-01T13:30:00.000-07:00

70. If there are indeed one-hit wonders in film, Topol would certainly be my favorite. Yes, I know that he made other films, but come on? Can you name any of them? For me and multitudes of film and theatergoers, he will always be Tevye, wishing he were a rich man.

The boisterous man at the center of a changing Jewish family is surrounded by a singing, dancing cast that most musical directors would kill for nowadays. And indeed, Fiddler should be seen by those wishing to reinvent the tales of Chicago and the like onscreen in this musical revival era. For, unlike the banal musicals that have followed the marvel of Moulin Rouge!, this film has a heart and power locked behind it. The Sunrise, Sunset number is of particular interest-what other musical can make you cry so hard? And Topol, well he's s'wonderful.

The perfect film evening would combine the loveliness of Fiddler on the Roof with the dark, harsh Cabaret-the two best musicals of the Seventies.

71. Haley Joel Osment (The Sixth Sense)

2006-04-30T16:09:00.000-07:00

71. When I first saw The Sixth Sense, I was fifteen, and it was Summer. That meant no access to the Internet (what dark and dank times those were) and no access to Entertainment Weekly (literally my movie almanac up until I hit nineteen). Therefore, I had no idea that there was any hoopla surrounding The Sixth Sense. I mean, I'd heard it was good, but that twist (which I guessed, and will certainly not tell here), wasn't something that I was necessarily expecting going in.

Something else I wasn't expecting going in was the supreme performance by child wonder Haley Joel Osment (see also Number 80 in this countdown). His Cole was a gifted individual, capable of great, thought-provoking sentences and one undeniably affective catch phrase. The looks of sheer terror, and also of the unknown and known in his perceptions of death is startling. Yes, the twist is terrific, as are Toni Collette and Bruce Willis, but without Osment's tour de force, this would have been as standard as every other M. Night Shyamalan film.

When I think Haley, I immediately go to Dakota Fanning, so I'd check out her wide-eyed turn in War of the Worlds as a companion to this (just try not to be sucked into Tom Cruise's scientology vortex).

I'm not here, but look at these two and I don't think you'll care

2006-04-29T22:29:00.000-07:00

All right, so John has been super busy the last couple of days, but don't fret-he'll be returning tomorrow with two new performances, plus a commentary on how Jeff Bridges career has gone down the drain. In the meantime, ogle over these two beautiful human specimans:

How can that woman be 48?

2006-04-27T11:19:00.000-07:00

We now take a break from the Countdown of the 100 Greatest Performances to bring you the most beautiful onscreen blonde, since, well, since ever. Because there's no lovely, sexy, stunning goddess quite like Michelle Pfeiffer. Just look at her. I mean, Michelangelo himself could not have cribbed a more flawless face. It's timeless, it's ravishing, it's the stuff of screen iconography. Pfeiffer is one of those rare actresses you could see in any era. Can you imagine her in the hands of Howard Hawks? Of Ingmar Bergman? Of Hitchcock?

Most will highlight in this birthday blog-a-thon (if you did not see the icon up top, this is part of a huge blog-a-thon hosted by Nathaniel-check out all of the other Pfeiffer-inspired love by clicking on any image of the golden lady) on Catwoman or Baker Boys or the glorious blonde one's absence from the screen. However, I'm going to highlight One Fine Day, one of Pfeiffer's lesser known roles.

The reason for my love of this film is that this was my first introduction to Pfeiffer. Being twelve at the time (guess my age from there), I was enthralled by this uber-sophisticated pairing of debonair George Clooney and the haunting, haughty Pfeiffer. I was instantly attracted to her thawing of the ice princess ideal. The way she spouted off how Clooney had a "Peter Pan" complex, I was totally laughing in the rows. The rest of my sixth grade posse had no idea what to make of this sophisticated, totally underappreciated romantic comedy, but I remember listing it as my favorite film of that year. The scene where a frazzled Pfeiffer changes in front of the mirror, trying to remember what it was like back when she was a hot young single, you can see the wile in her eyes, and the complete melding of actress and character. Michelle, I implore you, make more films-screen memories like those I have of One Fine Day can only be created by an actress as world class as yourself.

Happy birthday to Michelle-may you someday have the Oscar you deserve!

72. Holly Hunter (The Piano)

2006-04-27T07:10:00.000-07:00

72. One might ask, what is Anna Paquin without her mother/companion? Well, half of a perfect movie, that is. For the other half, you needed to wait just two slots until 72, where Holly Hunter, pictured here with wide-eyed Anna, claims her slot on this list.

Holly Hunter is one of the best actresses working who routinely gets no acknowledgement for being one of the best actresses working. Never mind the fact that she has four Oscar nominations (and considering her career, will likely be headed for numbers five and six in the next decade or so), she rarely is mentioned in a conversation of Julias, Meryls, and Kates.

Yet, in this harrowing tale, she proves what actresses can do at their peak: inhabit a character, body and soul. The film takes her Ada McGrath, and shoves her into not one but two alien situations. The first, the one with her mail-order husband Sam Neill, provides for unbearable stifle and raw disgust. The second, and far superior one, is that of her lover Harvey Keitel, who goes from complete disgust to out-and-out passion. One can almost feel the forbidden nature of their love wash over you as you watch. Hunter's character is mute, but through her eyes and tentative gestures, she becomes a rarefied breed of beauty and light.

73. Barbara Stanwyck (Double Indemnity)

2006-04-26T14:11:00.000-07:00

73. "The withering glance of the goddess" is a quote from The Philadelphia Story, but it applies more aptly to a film four years later. The beautiful Barbara Stanwyck would drive anyone to destruction with just a gaze (so Fred MacMurray, take heart).

Wilder's skewering of the female in Double Indemnity is the definitive noir, and there's no explanation other than Stanwyck's Phyllis Dietrichson. She lounges around in sunglasses and slutty sundresses, and decides to kill her husband completely out of boredom. Her hatred of human weakness, and her unrelenting ability to take out any person in her way is what is lacking from modern day femme fatales. Present actresses always have to add a little morality to their vindictive creations-not Stanwyck. When she needs to toss out MacMurray, she does with a flick of the wrist. She can even make supermarkets sexy! There have been many reincarnations of the dangerous dame since, but it's Stanwyck, all murder and honeysuckle, who makes sin so deliciously sweet.

Take your pick for the film festival: ranging from Kathleen Turner in Body Heat to Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct to Rita Hayworth in The Lady From Shanghai, you can't have enough of the sexy ladies/criminals. Probably don't bring a date though, at least not without a background check.

74. Anna Paquin (The Piano)

2006-04-25T20:09:00.000-07:00

74. Do you see the wild angry eyes? The complicated brow? The bewitching glance? Anna Paquin in The Piano is full of anger, but that's part of her adorable charm. In one of the best performances ever given by a child, you can't help but fall in love with the dancing, prancing Paquin, even when she's out trying to draw a line between good and evil.

Paquin's character actually becomes two in one within The Piano, as she is both her own young woman and her mute mother. As the voice for her mother, her Flora must confront the fact that she doesn't approve of her mother's affair. Therefore, her uncharacteristic actions are made totally believable.

It should be noted that I am not a great fan of Paquin's-oh sure, she's a fine actress, but she seems to have run her course as a new millenium Lolita. As Flora, though, she will always be a part of my vernacular. I say "we have to take the piano!" every time there is a much needed awkward gaze in a conversataion. Her Flora is a breath of fresh air to watch, and essential to any film-going experience.

Combined with Anna Paquin's spoiled turn, you should take in the super sweet, unsettlingly caring Peggy Ann Garner in A Tree Grows in Brooklyn-both will stick with you for months and years later. You can thank me in 2010.

75. Richard Attenborough (Jurassic Park)

2006-04-24T20:19:00.000-07:00

75. Yes, I am perfectly aware that this is the fourth (if my count is right) performance from a film by Spielberg on this countdown-and let me tell you, it won't be the last. Though the Academy often ignores the performances featured by this master entertainer, I find the deceptively complicated, always rich and wide-eyed creations that Spielberg imparts enthralling and vital to his storytelling.

That said, I don't think anyone could disagree that Richard Attenborough's John Hammond is anything less than fun. The aging millionaire, out playing with all of his toys, wanting to make the world a better place, is a lovely piece to this millions-year-old puzzle. I have a feeling Tom Hanks will be playing this role in his seventies. Attenborough's beautiful speech about the fleas is chilling and heartbreaking. Jurassic Park, my personal favorite of all Spielberg movies, wouldn't be the same without his kind center. Plus, I would be robbed of his flawless line-reading of, "Welcome to Jurassic Park!" a quote that welcomes moviegoers into a world of magic that they may never wish to leave.

Spielberg film festivals are never hard to conduct, with so many choices, but may I recommend that you take Jurassic Park and up the ante with a double feature of Jurassic and Jaws, Spielberg's other monster movie. Get ready for good, arm-gripping fun (and maybe make two buckets of popcorn, as you know you''ll spill at least one during that opening scene at the beach).

76. Harrison Ford (Indiana Jones Series)

2006-04-23T08:49:00.000-07:00

76. Harrison Ford, despite what you may have seen at the Golden Globes this past year, was not always a fading has-been. In fact, at one time, dear children, he was one of the top box office draws in the world. And why not: he was breaking hearts in Star Wars, was on the run from Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, and was Oscar-worthy in Witness. And he grossed millions upon millions upon millions. Therefore, the punching bag he's become is only possible because he's had so far to fall.

That said, for me, he'll always be the rascal Indiana Jones, running away from boulders and fighting with Sean Connery. While some may claim James Bond to be the ultimate film action hero, in my mind there's no question that it's Harrison. Indiana Jones has that slightly academic thing going for him-don't you have wish your professor would secretly be running around the world, chasing after the Holy Grail? Ford uses all the charm he has in the Star Wars films to a much more rugged, adventuresome effect (and plus, I love Spielberg far more than Lucas). Some actors are on this list for stretching their acting talents to the absolute limits. I place Ford here, not because this was a stretch, but he was an actor who took his once shimmering movie star persona and turned it into one of the screen's most memorable characters. And for that, Harrison, you will never completely fall in my book.

A marathon...three Indiana Jones movies, each interedependent on the last? It doesn't take a vine-swinging professor to figure this one out. On a side note, however, I have a theory that Harrison Ford is in that elite group of actors who, were he ever to create a truly substantial, dramatic role again, would win an Academy Award. I have little faith that he'll ever do this (unlike, say, Bruce Willis and John Travolta-both of whom I expect to pull a James Coburn someday and pick up a little golden guy), but here's to hoping.

77. Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give)

2006-04-22T08:18:00.000-07:00

77. If I was being totally honest with myself, I would have every role I've ever seen Diane Keaton in on this list. There is no other actress I surround myself so freely with. Every new movie is a treasure, every performance an anticipation. Picking just one favorite is like picking a favorite Ben & Jerry's flavor-they're all so delicious.

Unfortunately, for those keeping track, Diane won't make this list with every performance. However, her charming turn as Erica Barry perches quite divinely at Number 77. This role seems to epitomize all that is right with the affable Diane-it's quirky, sweet, incredibly endearing, and ripe with intelligent observation. The scenes with Jack are bustling with a sort of sexuality few movies can seem to crackle with today (where have you gone, Kate Hepburn and Cary Grant?). The crying jags both send tears from the ducts and laughs from the gut. My personal favorite though, and one of my favorite romantic sudser lines, is when she goes, "Do you know, I’ve written this, but I’ve never got it. You know what this is? This, this is heartbroken. How’s that for impervious? I just wish it had lasted more than a week." Love was never so truly spoken. And with Diane highlighting the beats of the heart, it was never so truly acted.

In making a Diane Keaton film festival, one must decide to go for the lighter or darker side of her filmography. Since it's good to be consistent, I insist that you start out with an afternoon of frothy fun in the form of The First Wives Club, then follow up with this treasure, and finally sink back with the delightful romp of Annie Hall.

78. Robert de Niro (The Godfather, Part II)

2006-04-21T14:32:00.000-07:00

78. When amassing a list like this, you start out with hundreds of performances, and slowly but steadily you narrow it down to 100. In this winnowing process, a lot of things become just as important as the acting itself: how beloved the films are, how likeable/memorable the characters are, and of course, the person's career. Many of my favorite actors show up on this list not only out of my sheer love of that role, but of their career themselves (with one notable exception-one of my all time faves will not show up on this list, whom I will point out at the end of the countdown).

Therefore, I give you your chance to ogle the master thespian Bobby de Niro (never Robert-we're on a nickname basis). While I'm personally more of a Pacino man, there's no denying that Bobby has a sense of actorly minimalism that few others in his craft possess. Look at him as Don Vito Corleone, in the monumental Godfather, Part II. Look at how he jumps from rooftops, or how he grows into the character we know and love. Few actors, if any can so readily possess the character they are playing. His face is iconic, his roles (at least those before Cape Fear) are legend. Brando may have created the mold here, but it was de Niro who brought it to life.

OK, I'm going to recommend that you enjoy the entire nine hour Godfather trilogy, complete with spaghetti and a lone cornet playing in the background. Just make sure that the horses are locked up nice and tight.

79. Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter Series)

2006-04-20T04:45:00.000-07:00

79. One might assume anyone who adopted the Hogwarts logo would be gliding, Nimbus 2000 on hand, onto this list. After all, there are few things I receive more joy out of then a new tidbit of Harry Potter wonder and adventure. However, when you have a young actor like Daniel Radcliffe, who manages to make me not long for the boy wizard, but instead start imagining him in the stead of my literary mind's snapshot of him, you know that you've got someone with a future beyond Hogwarts.

The Harry Potter movies, for me, are filled with flaws that I can stomach. Perhaps because I love the series so much that any output will make me happy and I'll end up waxing soliloques about how perfectly Alfonso Cuaron's replication of Professor Lupin was or how wonderfully Chris Columbus recreated Diagon Alley. And while I acknowledge that there are some flaws in all of the movies, I'm going to defend Dan Radcliffe in his role-I mean, anyone who has the guts to take on one of literature's most beloved children's adventurers has to have some respect. Radcliffe takes the rather naive creation of J.K. Rowling and moves it onto the screen with pluck, but also some internal self-conflict. Radcliffe is obviously a student of the books: how else could he have so well shown the awkwardness of talking to Cedric about the dragons? Or shown such determination in the scene fighting the Boggarts (probably my favorite scene in the entire cinematic series)? Radcliffe makes you believe in magic, and more importantly in he as the boy wizard, and that is why he ranks Number 79 on the countdown.

All right, buckle down for this one, since the film festival is going to be a long one: start out with the childhood pluck and simplicity of Sorcerer's Stone, move into the darker tones of Dobby, Basilisks, and Kenneth Branagh in Chamber of Secrets, reach the pinnacle of magic in the whispy Prisoner of Azkaban, and end up counting on Ralph Fiennes in Goblet of Fire. Enjoy some Bertie Bott's and chocolate frogs, and afterwards call up your favorite mate for a nice game of chess.

Speaking Frankly with James

2006-04-19T14:16:00.000-07:00

James Franco celebrates a birthday today (according to that lovely behemoth IMDB), and I think it's time to step back and look at his career. After all, this is a man who charmed the pants off everyone in sight as the brooding, poetic Daniel DeSario, then went ahead and played the crown prince of troubled youth, James Dean (in a role that nabbed him a Golden Globe). Hell, he even stole scenes from Robert de Niro in 2002's City by the Sea.

So what happened? Where are the award-worthy roles? Why is all the press going to the likes of other young talents in Hollywood? Every couple of years, an actor emerges and immediately everyone assumes that he's going to be the next thing, but even in Franco's case, it seems to have been a rather steep plummet. And what's more, no one seems to have noticed. After City by the Sea tanked at the box office, it was as if the boy wonder had never captivated the American Psyche. Forgotten amidst a sea of Jakes and Cillians, he seems to have been doomed to Spider-Man cameos and bad Romeo & Juliet knockoffs.

So, on this, the day of your birth, I implore you, Mr. Franco, to get off your ass and call your agent. Tell him you want to get cast in the next cowboy epic or in a big-screen adaptation of The Line of Beauty. Heath Ledger just had a renaissance-now make it your turn.

80. Haley Joel Osment (A.I.: Artificial Intelligence)

2006-04-19T04:26:00.000-07:00

80. There are some performances on this list that are funny, some dramatic, some scary, and some utterly romantic. And then there are a few that are so oddly moving, the list would be incomplete without their wonderful presence. This is how I feel about Haley Joel Osment as David in A.I.: Artificial Intelligence.

I remember looking forward to this movie in 2001, possibly more than even Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings (anyone who knows me can understand the great sacrifice it was to make that last statement). I couldn't help it though-Spielberg, whom I still love, despite the critical gut instinct to hate his work, always brings out a sense of the child in me (perhaps my adoration also stems from Spielberg usually picking my birthday as a release date for his films). Rarely, though, does his work come across as effectively as the tale of this Pinocchio robot, who crosses far and wide to find a love that will never come to him.

Osment is shocking and real in the role that should have won him as many accolades as his previous work in The Sixth Sense. His quirky chemistry with Gigolo Joe Jude Law is more like two aimless drifters (Huckleberry Friends, for any Breakfast at Tiffany's fans) than anything else. Yes, the mother-complex thing is a little disturbing, but so is the whole movie. Osment is unflinching in his approach to the character-never appearing false. On occasion, there is some child in the role, but, hey, he's playing a child. And the individual scenes should be watched by every aspiring teeny bopper child actor: the abandonment at the car, the wayward glances at the Blue Fairy, the interaction with Dr. No; if you can't pull off this sort of magnetism, don't expect me to take your thespian ambitions seriously recent Disney Channel reject. As for Osment, if you ever decide to finish your trio of masterworks, I'm eternally yours.

A film festival? Hmm, why don't you pair A.I.: Artificial Intelligence with its original tale, Pinocchio, my all-time favorite classic Disney tale. Study how both are weaves of lost, but ultimately found dreams.

81. Lesley Ann Warren (Clue)

2006-04-18T09:38:00.000-07:00

81. And the Clue festival continues-for what is Mrs. Peacock without the yelping, comically sexy Miss Scarlett to follow her? Lesley Ann Warren (who also received one solitary Oscar nod in the 1980s-this time for Victor/Victoria), is a comedic riot as the scheming, oversexed lady in red (well, actually blue-you gotta love that the costume designer put no lady in her signature color).

I literally quote this film once a week, and if I had a character I highlight the most, it would certainly be Scarlett-"Who are you, Perry Mason?", "Sure, I'll eat anything" "It's my defense mechanism" The fun in Warren's performance is that she never lets up-you can tell that this comedic glamour gal is only doing this for the shear joy of the laugh, and I continue to do that again and again.

I recommend you invest into two other gorgeous funny ladies for a film festival: the irrepressible Carole Lombard in the hilarious My Man Godfrey and the sparkling Claudette Colbert in It Happened One Night.

82. Anne Baxter (All About Eve)

2006-04-17T04:14:00.000-07:00

82. A few days ago, I sank into the delicious playwright's wife Karen Richards (Celeste Holm, #86), and stated that she distinguishes herself from a mouth-watering cast. Well, this wasn't to say that there weren't other members of that cast that deserved a spot on this list as well, as can be seen from the woman on the left.

While Bette Davis's immortal role of Margo Channing may not always equate itself with Bette Davis for me (I've also got Baby Jane Hudson and Charlotte Vale vying for my attentions), Anne Baxter is Eve Harrington in my eyes. That perfect hair, that cool, rehearsed demeanor, that heart of a vixen trapped in the body of a mouse ("no, not mouse, never mouse, if anything rat"). Baxter may have played other roles well (such as her Oscar-winning turn in The Razor's Edge), but it is with this dewy-eyed creation that she wins over any naysayers. From her sparkling tete-a-tete with George Sanders in the hotel to her pure Hollywood awards acception speech to the final, strings-soaked curtain call, she owns Eve Harrington, and bewitches the audience. Movie villains may come and go-Anne Baxter and Eve Harrington are forever.

A film festival with Anne Baxter may seem pointless (after all it, was Easter yesterday-you already saw The Ten Commandments). Therefore, I recommend two other are-they-good-or-evil? films: Charade, with Cary Grant's character switching every-which-way-he-can, and North by Northwest, again with Cary Grant (but this time it's Eva Marie Saint who keeps you guessing).

What about television?

2006-04-16T18:13:00.000-07:00

In compiling my list of favorite performances in film history, I had to wrestle with whether or not to include television-I mean, performances in series would be inappropriate, as surefire placers like Calista Flockhart's Ally McBeal or Martin Sheen's President Bartlett had years to amass my devotion. However, tv movies were a different scenario.

The miniseries has not been my great friend through the year-possibly because I don't have the patience to sit six days in a row, watching a long-running narrative. However, there are several, including The Forstye Saga and The Temptations, that capture the best of a "real" film. Great performances are much more difficult to come by, in part because film has the beautiful stigmas of sitting alone in a dark, and also because I have seen many more of the great films than the great miniseries. Here, however, are the three performances that I would have considered, if not placed in the top 100:

Colleen Dewhurst (Anne of Green Gables)-This series is filled with lovely acting, ranking from the late Richard Farnsworth's Matthew to the whatever-happened-to-her wonder that is Megan Follows as Anne with an e. However, if I had to pick a favorite, it would of course be Colleen Dewhurst's stodgy Marilla Cuthbert. Can you imagine anyone else exuding such stern grace as a woman who wanted a boy, but was blessed with a girl? Her best scenes are telling off Mrs. Barry when she yells about Anne drinking the raspberry cordial (growing up, I always wanted to drink this magical cordial as well). I distinctly remember watching this for the first time as an adult (it played opposite the Super Bowl-guess which one I would pick?), and balling like a baby when she stated, "They knew we needed her." Such sorrows, all from one capable thespian.

Jennifer Ehle (Pride and Prejudice)-Going from a multiple Emmy winner to a Tony winner, you can't really tell how Jennifer Ehle could have possibly been made for the stage-I mean, I love her, and she's all there as an actress, but her brilliant symmetry just doesn't seem like it would work well in the louder, more on-the-spot world of the theater. Watching her as the divine Elizabeth Bennett is like watching a softly unfolding Keats poem. If there was ever an actress I've wondered more about, I can't think of one offhand-how could she not have a major film career with a performance this radiant? Aside from that film with Ralph Fiennes (Sunrise-which is high on my Netflix queue-Ralph and my Jennifer, I can hardly wait), there's nada. But no matter-even if she never creates anything else, she will live on in my memory as a stubborn, vibrant Elizabeth Bennett. Not handsome-it's a pity for Mr. Darcy that he couldn't realize her many excellent qualities at the beginning of the film. As for the audience, who received one of the best miniseries ever, we have no such complaints.

Robert Duvall (Lonesome Dove)-And, so you don't think I forgot the fellas, well, just look at Robert Duvall. For some he may be Bill Kilgore, to others Tom Hagen, and still more Mac Sledge. To me he'll always be Gus McCrae-that charismatic, romantic, hopelessly fascinating last warrior of the west. I don't like the Western as a general rule, and I may not like the miniseries all that much, but all that is cast aside in this masterpiece-I ADORE this movie, and Robert Duvall in the greatest performance, not just of his career, but of the entire eighties. If you haven't seen this miniseries, set aside the 384 recquisite minutes to fully appreciate this miracle at the end of a decade of yuppies and Rambo. The western may be dead-Lonesome Dove will live forever.

83. Michael J. Fox (Back to the Future)

2006-04-16T15:37:00.000-07:00

83. Time travel, for me, has often been a great fantasy-I mean, where would I go? Would I go chat with the Bronte sisters (you gotta get your brother off the sauce, ladies)? Would I go listen to Deep Throat talk to Bernstein (and find out that in fact it was Hal Holbrook!)? Or would I go back to 1985, and tell one of our most gifted comedians to make more movies like Back to the Future, so you'll never have to star in a sitcom on ABC where they'll replace you with Charlie Sheen?

Yeah, I'd probably consider the third one, not just to give out the advice but also to let out a thank you to one of the best movie star turns I've ever seen. Micheal J. Fox in Back to the Future is pure bubble gum delight, and uses his boy-next-door good looks and charm to wicked effect. The cocksure attitude never entirely disappears, even as he's crossing into oblivion on a stage next to Chuck Berry's cousin. The line readings, "Doc, are you telling me you built a time machine?" are golden.

It should also be noted that I consider this film, with its escapist adventurism and its thrilling premise, to be one of, if not the best, films of the eighties. I'm weird that way (well, the eighties were weird that way too). Alex P. Keaton may be his signature role, but this is the performance that I carry with me, treasuring always those flights in a Delorean.

All right, I think that the film festival is rather self-explanatory here-get thyself to Hollywood Video, pick up all three Back to the Futures, buckle in with some grape soda, kettle corn, and peanut butter M&M's and have a roaring good time.

84. Dustin Hoffman (The Graduate)

2006-04-16T15:21:00.000-07:00

84. As promised, I will be granting you two performances today to make up for my Easter absence (I also haven't watched a film yet this Easter, which I must surely take on this weekend-maybe I'll work on some homework and indulge in a little Kurosawa).

Anyway, back to the task at hand, the dapper young man at the left-for how could one pay attention to my weekend when we have the fantastic Dustin Hoffman, master of the comedic and dramatic everyman, glaring so needily at us? Though he was thirty-a tad old for a graduate, but who are we to judge?-he captured youth and vigor in his Ben Braddock.

My favorite part of Hoffman's performance, is of course, that tender need/lust/amour that he carries on with the sensational Anne Bancroft as Mrs. Robinson. The fumbling with the cigarette kiss, the shocked look he exudes with her thigh bared to the audience and he alike. The "Singleman party" line-Hoffman is a man in love, but he isn't quite sure what love is. There's something endearing and yet very real about not being to identify the emotion-and adds all the more to that ambigous ending. Hoffman may have become slightly arrogant in his old age, but look at this role-isn't a little self-love deserved with something so capable?

A Hoffman film festival? Hmm, while you could go with his creepy antics in Marathon Man or the walking man in Midnight Cowboy, I should probably recommend a film festival where I've seen the movies. Therefore, I'd lead in with The Graduate, break out the laughter with Tootsie, and end up with a good cry in Kramer vs. Kramer.

85. Kevin Spacey (The Usual Suspects)

2006-04-14T07:34:00.000-07:00

85. First off, I should tell you that you will not get your daily dose of performance tomorrow, as I will not be at my computer, but I'll give you a double feature on Sunday worthy of the absence.

Of course, if you're into double features-you might as well catch Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects, because you're going to have to watch the movie twice to realize the absolute layers he exudes as Verbal Kint. This crime drama, one of the smartest I've ever seen (for those who want to see one that's similarly intriguing, catch Inside Man, in theaters now), takes five small time crooks and puts them into a bigtime heist. The cast is rather paltry (one of the lesser Baldwin brothers gets above the credits billing), but Kevin Spacey is so smashing, you won't really care (you can also check out a young scene-stealing Benicio del Toro, five years before Traffic). Spacey glues the scenes together, whether it's through his daft, sarcastic narration or his nervous glow as he partakes in the crime to beat all crimes. Oh yeah, and there's that infamous ending (which made me fall out of my chair, and which I insist no one share here). However, there's an entire movie before that, and Spacey steals every nook and cranny.

Anyone who was around in the early nineties would have seen The Usual Suspects, L.A. Confidential, and American Beauty and known that we had a big, talented star on our hands who was going to become the next-well, I don't know, but something spectacular. Then, nada, nothing even worth going out and just enjoying the popcorn for. Watch these three back-to-back, and then write a letter to Kevin Spacey's agent insisting that he either resign or go to Confession.

86. Celeste Holm (All About Eve)

2006-04-13T10:11:00.000-07:00

86. One of the things I'm enjoying about this countdown is that I don't always remember who I put on the list-I have the list, and only check it once a day, to find out whose performance we will be viewing that day will be. I had completely forgotten about this fine actress, number 86, and one of the most unsung performances in a film brimming with some fantastic thespians.

The great thing about Celeste Holm in All About Eve is that she doesn't, in fact grate. Struggling for screen charisma opposite the likes of Anne Baxter's witchy Eve Harrington, George Sanders' irrepressible diva, and, well, Bette Davis (did Davis ever let someone else take one of her scenes?), Holm could have gone the easy route of making Karen Richards a whiny, loud-mouth scene stealer.

Instead, Mankiewicz has a better idea for Holm. While everyone else is traipsing around with abomination, Holm becomes the meddler with her conscience conflicting with her better judgment. When she betrays Margo, she feels bad, but she doesn't have the foolishness to tell the grand Bette Davis. Holm lets her eyes and overly calm demeanor represent her. You know she's more than what she seems, but you can't tell quite what Karen Richards is capable of. It's that threat of what could come, what lies behind the "lowest kind of celebrity" that brings about the finest form of acting: the kind that doesn't need temper tantrums and threats to appear intimidating.

I haven't seen hardly any of Celeste Holm's movies, so instead I'm going to represent that you accompany Holm's theater wife with Jane Darwell's powerful matriarch in The Grapes of Wrath and Virginia Madsen's sweet-tempered waitress in Sideways. All are down-to-earth, really special performances in grand cinema.

87. Bill Murray (Lost in Translation)

2006-04-12T05:37:00.000-07:00

87. Look at that face, look at that complete and utter confusion of an actor caught in the middle of life. But more importantly, look at this movie, because there is no other work this decade who combines a sense of beautiful artistry with a complete sense of melancholy and the eternal struggle to find one's self. I now have times in my life I refer to as "Lost in Translation" moments. This film has become part of my psyche, and I think anyone who watches it will find that they too will be lost in this wayward tale.

A third of this change of life has to be credited to Bill Murray (the other two parts, of course, are all Sofia's and Scarlett's). Murray, in my humbled opinion, has never been better. He has classic scene after classic scene, as he rediscovers that his uber-successful life has been for want-he doesn't know what he's doing, and he's not sure he likes that he's a drifter. My favorite is the scene with the commercial...no wait, the scene with karaoke...no, the end-definitely the end (or maybe the scene where Scarlett asks about the Porsche). Every scene reaks of future depths. I remember an author once commenting that he intends to keep reading Proust's Rememberance of Things Past for the rest of his life. I plan on watching Bill in this movie for the rest of mine.

A Murray film festival? I am in desperate need of one. Despite the fact that I have gained a recent love of him, I am completely void on my collective Murray filimography: What About Bob?, Caddyshack, Rushmore-I haven't seen any of the three. Of the ones I have seen, I'd say make it a double feature between Lost in Translation, and then Broken Flowers-Murray's underappreciated follow-up (even though he doesn't have Scarlett, there's still much to love).

88. Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)

2006-04-11T20:57:00.000-07:00

88. I've gushed on Brokeback Mountain more than any other movie this side of The English Patient, and the bulk of that praise is geared toward the fantastic Heath Ledger and Ang Lee's clever direction. Yet it's impossible to imagine the film without the sweet heart of Jake Gyllenhaal.

Gyllenhaal manages to combine a needy sense of belonging with a self-imposed obligation of masculinity. He is torn between his need to be the rough-and-tumble cowboy that he was raised to be, and the tender heart that he exudes as he hopes and prays that his one true love Ennis will someday come to his senses and profess his love. Watching his face shatter with every chance for hope, watching him regain trust in Ennis, only to have it ripped away by fate or ill-timing: it's a heartbreaking piece that Gyllenhaal pieces together, and his Jack Twist is anything but nasty-he's a film character for the ages. With all due respect to Mr. George Clooney, he robbed blind one of the best performances by a young actor given ever-not just this past year.

A Jake marathon? Maybe a little of that sweet young nerd in October Sky, perhaps some disaffected soldiering in Jarhead, maybe even take a gander at how Jake can be watchable in dreck like Day After Tomorrow. No matter, as long as you end with Brokeback, you'll be all set.

89. Eileen Brennan (Clue)

2006-04-10T04:42:00.000-07:00

89. I will never stop loving Clue-even if I end up spending my remaining years of cinematic existance only going to Oscar nominees and obscure, critically-adored foreign flicks, I will always have that spot in my heart for Clue, the film that I discovered just before I dived into the classics (I saw A Streetcar Named Desire and Clue in the same year-both would have an amazing effect on my future viewing habits).

That said, how can you beat Mrs. Peacock in this movie? There are no layers here, like the bulk of the actors we've looked at-just a boozy senator's wife who is caught in the middle of a country weekend hell. Brennan relishes the spotlight, puffing away at her cigarettes, screaming every chance she can, spitting out dialogue like she's chewing Skoal. Just peer at her-the ostrich feathers, the look of disdain; Brennan is one of the most underused and underappreciated comediennes out there.

A film festival for me would be to watch Clue three times, but I suppose you might want something more. I don't have a lot to offer in the way of Brennan, as I haven't seen everything (maybe I should have the film festival). Potentially score Clue with her early bit parts in awards magnets The Sting or The Last Picture Show? Or perhaps check out Brennan's own awards bonanza, Private Benjamin, the only Oscar nomination she ever received.

90. Jodie Foster (The Silence of the Lambs)

2006-04-09T12:44:00.000-07:00

90. Jodie Foster is one of my favorite actresses. I say this because when discussing Clarice Sterling, arguably the best tough lady of the screen (all of you fans of Ripley, keep in mind I've only seen Alien, not its supposedly superior sequel), you have to have some Foster love there. Otherwise, you'll be distracted by the brilliance of Anthony Hopkins and his Hannibal Lecter or the loom of Buffalo Bill has as Clarice inches ever closer to him or the tautness of Ted Tally's story. Perhaps even that bouncy Howard Shore score will knock you out. So a love of Foster may be required to notice the brilliance of this particular role in her capable, thespian hands.

Clarice Sterling is, like almost every character on this list, more than she seems. Unlike, most characters on this list, however, she lays all of her flaws out on the line. In scenes with Hopkins, she shows what lies beneath "her good bag and cheap shoes. She has incredible bravado. Sketched across Foster's face as she delves further into herself, you can see the changes, the moments where she fleetingly relinquishes control to Hopkins. Unlike most others, I did not see any sexual flare between Clarice and Hannibal, but Foster does allow a bit of friendship, and at the very least, a mutual admiration to spring up between the two of them. The scenes where she is alone aren't nearly as compelling, but still actorly-particularly the scene in the picture above, where she, after stumbling through the darkness of her psyche, has to face the true darkness, the darkness she'd been literally discovering the entire film.

Jodie Foster, despite the fact that she has been rather lax lately in putting out films, has been in a number of fine movies. I'd normally throw together my three favorites of hers (aside from of course Lambs, there would be her small role as a child hooker in Taxi Driver, as well as her daughter on a mission in Contact), but I can't help but recommend the riveting new drama Inside Man, playing in theaters right now. Ignoring this deceptively good film would be a bad way to spend April.

91. Jane Fonda (Julia)

2006-04-08T08:43:00.000-07:00

91. Unlike the Academy, I don't have much of a fondness for actors who take on famous people. I'm more of a fan of a new creation, or at least one interpreted from literature.

However, I do on occasion fall in love with the biopic, and there are few film tales as compelling as Julia. The film doesn't quite follow the biopic (after all, the title character isn't the lead-it is in fact Lillian Hellman, recollecting her past with the beautiful and lovely Julia). The film has grand performances crawling out of the woodwork (ranging from the intricate Maximillian Schell to Vanessa Redgrave as the title character to Meryl Streep in her haunting screen debut). However, it is Fonda, as the chain-smoking playwright, who steals the show.

This is Fonda's best performance, hands down. Yes, she won Oscars for Klute and Coming Home, but it is this where she most perfectly combines her cold, hard edge with a woman who deserves that edge (and the film is of unbelievable quality). Her Hellman is a woman on the move, trying to recapture youth, her story, and her future all in one fateful trip. The scene in the coffeehouse with Redgrave is the best, but even small motions, like the way Fonda handles the hat, are brilliant. It's a study of minutia, and Fonda, with a precision she patented, is grand.

Hmm...a Fonda marathon? Avoid Monster-in-Law, that's for sure. Maybe take on the early work of They Shoot Horses, Don't They?, and perhaps the later works of On Golden Pond (where she's a supporting hottie), with Julia as a beautiful tiramisu dessert.

WGA's 101 Greatest Screenplays

2006-04-08T08:30:00.000-07:00

OK, here's the link (I don't know how to write those fancy link things, but here it is: http://www.wga.org/subpage_newsevents.aspx?id=1807

My comments:

Best Item: You have to love a list that recognizes the brilliance of Annie Hall, Casablanca, both the Godfathers, and Citizen Kane in its Top Ten-all must see films.

Other great items: I love the scripts of Lawrence of Arabia, Taxi Driver, and Back to the Future, which don't usually get recognized for their writing properties.

Isn't it a little premature?: Eternal Sunshine beats out Double Indemnity and The Philadelphia Story (which at 40, is a travesty-top fifteen, at least)? And Sideways topping Psycho? A big huh on that one. For the record, though, I love all five of these movies.

What the hell are they doing on a list like this?: Jerry Maguire, Rocky, The Princess Bride, and Patton? I mean, aside from "You had me at hello" and that opening speech in front of the flag, none of these has clever wordplay (though they do have blockbuster screenwriters).

Where on earth is: Lost in Translation (they go with the modern films, and leave out this marvel?), Bringing Up Baby, The Hours, Vertigo, and A Streetcar Named Desire? I mean, the comedy bias could play with Baby, and The Hours and Lost are new, but no Streetcar or Vertigo-they'd both me in my Top 25.

OK, normally I don't like reality television, but...

2006-04-08T08:24:00.000-07:00

...this has me completely intrigued:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060407/ts_alt_afp/afpentertainmentusfilm_060407195853/

92. Jason Isaacs (Peter Pan)

2006-04-07T10:15:00.000-07:00

92. I remember very vividly the moment I saw this movie announced, I proclaimed, "I am going to fall in love with this movie. This is going to be one of my favorite films of 2003." I stuck by it, even when the rather shoddy trailers came out, because I knew deep down, that the story of Peter Pan was destined to translate flawlessly to the silver screen. And, lo and behold, it was every bit as magical as I imagined. This is that hallowed film which becomes better and better and better with every viewing. It is already among my favorites of all time. How can one not adore it? Sumpter and Hurd Wood turn in two incredibly unsung child actor performances, one shimmering bravado and the other ladylike adventurer. The sets seem plucked from outside of a dream-literally, the hazy, sometimes outlandish designs are like a nighttime landscape. The veins of wickedness, the wry sense of fantasy, the storybook twists. If the world had any justice, P.J. Hogan would be in charge of that rumored Dakota Fanning version of Alice in Wonderland.

Of course, when it comes to Peter Pan, you can't have the tale without Captain Hook, and Jason Isaacs, in the performance of a lifetime, bites into this role with gusto I'd never imagined. I still have trouble believing that the Academy could nominate such routine performances as Alec Baldwin in 2003, and yet somehow ignore the likes of this genuine gem. Isaacs is of course wicked, but he also delves into the envious nature of Hook-how he longs to be one with Pan & Wendy, and when he can't, he must go all through Neverland, trying to rid the world of things that he can't reach. His pirate is truly swashbuckling-evil but funny, clever but stupid-he's a mix of conundrums, and Isaacs balances them marvelously.

I think the best way to celebrate Isaacs would be to partake of three recent children's classics that, for the large part, weren't paid nearly enough heed: Matilda, Peter Pan, and Lemony Snickett. Each has a magical wickedness that I adore, each has a scrumptious set of villainry, and children that aren't cookie cutouts (I'm talking to you, Pevensie children that aren't named Lucy).

93. Meg Ryan (Sleepless in Seattle)

2006-04-06T10:22:00.000-07:00

93. Remember back before Russell Crowe, before all the terrible career moves? Hanging Up? Against the Ropes? I mean, I can forgive In the Cut (Jane Champion did wonders for Holly Hunter, after all), but come on Meg, you haven't made a watchable movie since your last teaming with Hanks.

That said, Ryan, well, she was once America's unsung everywoman, and there was no more quintessential romantic than Sleepless in Seattle. The role of Annie, the lady stuck in love, but longing for something more, is achingly beautiful. It's a testament to Ryan that you never think that she's a crazy person (pining after a guy from a radio program), but you can't help but root for the make believe. It's a charming, lovely film and there's no one better in it than Ryan (not even the beloved Hanks). The best scenes are when she's hiding in a closet, after listening to Hanks on the radio. An actor hasn't that good of chemistry with a machine since 2001: A Space Odyssey. The reason she's on this list, as opposed to the dozens of other comedic actresses of the 1990's (though there are at least a couple coming up, so those worried about an America's Sweetheart battle, there's still a few more rounds), is the vulnerability that she exudes. You can never quite tell where she's headed, whether she'll take the safe route, or she'll head to the top of that glowing New York skyscraper.

There's no better film festival than When Harry Met Sally, Sleepless in Seattle, and You've Got Mail (no Joe v. the Volcano, no dramatic Courage Under Fire) when it comes to this bubbly blonde. Ryan is best when she's pining and in love and adorable-remember what a fine actress she was, and how desperately you wish she'd mount a comeback.

94. Morgan Freeman and 95. Tim Robbins both for The Shawshank Redemption

2006-04-05T18:01:00.000-07:00

94 & 95. If you were wondering who I meant yesterday when I said Tom Hanks should have lost to someone else for Best Actor in 1994, it would be these two fellas. Had they both been rightfully nominated at the Academy (instead of just the deserving Freeman), I think it would have been one of those great coin flip scenarios for me in the voting booths. For each inhabit their characters like well-worn pairs of jeans.

This is also my favorite performance from both of these accomplished actors, despite their subsequent back-to-back Oscars. It's probably because Shawshank itself is such a startling triumph. Remember the first time you saw it, before it was overplayed so much on TNT that you could swear it was Jaws? That quiet desperation, that slight uplift at the end, that score (omg-what a score!), all of it would have been impossibly unfulfilling if it weren't for these two men.

Robbins's Andy is the classic innocent-man-found-guilty, but he doesn't always play to that stereotype. You can tell that he knows he's innocent, but he doesn't let that wear him down. He doesn't mope around, he's not out for some grand scheme of justice (at least not at the beginning), there is no piety that we're feeling for him (I'm talking about you Mr. Hanks, and your horrid Green Mile). Instead, the greatness in his role is that he makes this a character that we can all relate to-and therefore terrify us into realizing we could just as easily be the man on the big screen. He keeps to his quiet self, he spends the twenty some years in prison (it has to be close, Rita Hayworth to Raquel Welch?), but ultimately he lets little out. He remains the perfect introvert, only letting us know the vitals, leaving us to fill in the blanks.

It's the sort of minimalist acting that made Morgan Freeman famous. Unlike Robbins, who, outside of Shawshank, I don't really have strong feelings for, I love me some Morgan Freeman (which is why Freeman is 94 and Robbins 95). My one qualm with him is that he does the same sort schtick in each film. Playing off of his unbearably smooth baritone, he spouts wisdom and worldly knowingness, all the while keeping that emotion bottled deep within his tall, gaunt frame. Shawshank is perhaps the film where he does this most effectively, since, unlike flicks like Million Dollar Baby or Bruce Almighty, he has a fellow introvert to console with. The scenes with the two actors contain great wordplay and bright chemistry, and all they have to do is throw around a baseball. Freeman does well on his own, but it is with Robbins that he pulls off the great movie magic. The reason I place them both together in this countdown is, without one, the other one would not be on this list. Shawshank is a film that needs both of its talented leading men to prove its metal. And I, in turn, could not pick one over the other-and that's why they take up two of the hundred slots.

For a good marathon with these two fine gentleman, I'd spice it up with some comedy (a Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Shawshank Redemption marathon might have you heading for the noose). Instead, I'd suggest hitting Robbins in The Hudsucker Proxy, a fast-talking spin on films like His Girl Friday, and turn around and watch Bruce Almight, a pleasant enough film where Jim Carrey is funny and watchable, and Jennifer Aniston is great without having to be called Rachel (and Morgan Freeman plays God, one of my favorite casting choices of all time).

96. Tom Hanks (Philadelphia)

2006-04-04T09:44:00.000-07:00

96. With Tom Hanks, I am of the thought that his films are worth watching, if he himself is not the end-all-of-everything. He is a very good actor-one of my favorites, but he is not the best working actor, as some of mainstream America would insist upon, nor is he the reincarnation of my beloved Jimmy Stewart. Instead he is a talented man who recognizes a good script when it comes along, and takes ahold of it. Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Big, Catch Me If You Can, and Cast Away-they are all excellent movies, well worth anyone's time. It is odd that he won his two Oscars for performances in films that I don't like at all. One of them ( Forrest Gump) was a waste of an Oscar that could have gone to some far worthier nominees (one of which will show up later in this countdown, so I won't spoil the surprise over whom I would have gone with). The other, well, that one he should have had hands-down.

Philadelphia, after careful consideration, is my least favorite film on this list, but the performance isn't to be missed. Hanks plays a former high-flyer who has contracted AIDs, and must deal with bigotry and failing health all the while a court case is being held to argue whether his job dismissal was legal. The film is a shlock of stereotypes from the mustache-twisting Jason Robards to the cookie-cutter lover Antonio Banderas to the homophobic Denzel Washington (people often say he should have been nominated for this, but I consider it one of his least performances). The saving grace (aside from that fantastic Bruce Springsteen ballad) is Hanks, so moving as a man trying to find grace in a life that insists of robbing him of it, as a man balancing frustration with a need for something more. His painful opera scene is the killer, but its the entire persona he creates that really captures the life of this man. It's my favorite of all his work, and really shows what a fine actor can do with a fine role-create greatness.

A Hanks marathon? So many selections! If it were up to me, I'd begin with a dose of Big, to start the ball rolling, showing how he'd gone from sitcom hack to legitimate actor, then role into Philadelphia, and then move on to the survivalist motions of Cast Away (but fast forward through Helen Hunt).

97. Olivia de Havilland (Gone with the Wind)

2006-04-03T13:18:00.000-07:00

97. The first supporting performance of the countdown, from a lady who was basically a leading actress. De Havilland, whom I first fell in love with The Heiress, will always be the quintessential Melanie Wilkes. I may be the only person alive who would have voted for Ms. de Havilland instead of Hattie McDaniel in 1939. Not that the boisterous McDaniel wasn't excellent (she was), but I've always been a fan of the quiet, pleaful Ms. Wilkes.

Someone once stated that the first time you see Gone with the Wind, you are supposed to hate Melanie, and eventually you will grow to appreciate her. I guess I can understand that, but I believe I've loved her always. That slight smile, the eternal saintliness, all covering a mask of a woman who is likely severely distraught-wondering how her husband can possibly yearn for another woman, even though she loves him desperately. Look at her as she pines for Ashley while he's away at war, how she longs for her husband even while he's prancing around with Scarlett. De Havilland is homespun grace and charm-it isn't one-note, it's just subtle. My favorite scene is where she reassures Belle Watling that they could be good friends, but the most actorly of all the scenes is when she introduces a scarlet Scarlett at Ashley's birthday party. All that sweetness, so cleverly hiding contempt and the joy of learning that everyone loathes the harlot Scarlett (I cannot avoid rhyming!), she's magical.

For a double feature, I'd suggest you check out the second Oscar-winning turn that de Havilland turned in The Heiress (the first is a bland sudser). Here she's an older Melanie, less happy, more obviously out for revenge against a young Monty Clift.

98. Annette Bening (Being Julia)

2006-04-02T13:51:00.000-07:00

98. OK, I don't know if I can keep up this sort of frequency in my posts (maybe Sundays will be double performance day), but who can hold off when you have someone at 98 like Annette. Yes, Ms. Bening (Mrs. Beatty since 1992) takes this slot with her most recent outing. Annette has had the good fortune of playing opposite some of the 90's great leading men (John Cusack, Michael Douglas, Kevin Spacey), but this vehicle is completely and totally hers. Yes, Jeremy Irons (the always dependable) pops up and gives his British two cents, but the film centers on Annette.

Of course, when you have an actress this game, how can you not focus on her? Her Julia is a triumph, moving around and eating scenes with a divaesque flair not seen since Bette Davis took on Margo Channing. My favorite scene (though there are many I adore) is when she takes the stage-that curtain call with her young nemesis, taking her down (as if anyone ever thought she could take on Annette?!?) "B-E-N!" "God, I love beer!"-she has such vivacious flare throughout the entire film. The performance isn't sublte, but it's damned spectacular, and who would want a mousy lady of the stage? "Real actresses don't make films" Here's one grand exception.

Though in reality any film with Bening in it would be worth an investigation, accomplishing a triple feature out of The American President, American Beauty, and Being Julia would be one of the best Saturday evenings you could possibly imagine. Bening, Bening, Bening-end the night with a round-the-table game of insulting Hilary Swank for taking our lady's two Oscars and you have yourself a party.

The World is Quiet Here

2006-04-02T09:28:00.000-07:00

Yes, yes, I live and breath the boy wizard, but you can't deny that those Baudelaire children, and the wily Count Olaf (yes I say wily-he may be a moron, but he's outfoxed those brilliant kids many, many times), the idea of not one but two Lemony books (the final two-I'm already in mourning) coming out this year is almost unbearable. Unfortunate, however, it is not.

When I got my letter stating that there would be a book coming out yesterday about the dear, departed Beatrice, I almost jumped out of my skin. Then I realized, wait, it's April Fools Day, and I always fall for at least one joke on this pranksters' holiday. However, lo-and-behold, I headed over to Barnes and Noble, and there she was, the lovely companion to the Lemony novels. Here's to hoping that this book has a little more answer and a lot less riddle than the Autobiography. Then again, when you're dealing with something this complex and clever, who cares if you ever get to the bottom of things (I'm thinking Lost must have learned this lesson from Sir Lemony)?

And for those of you who have yet to indulge in the woeful tales of these orphans, shame, shame on you-the movie may be supreme (I loved it, at the very least), but the books-that's where the wicked magic comes.

99. Adrien Brody (The Pianist)

2006-04-02T09:01:00.000-07:00

99. I'm going to admit that the reason that I saw this movie was not the fantastic director Roman Polanski (again, look for more performances out of this actor's director later on in the countdown), nor was it because the plot intrigued me. It was, in fact, that pucker with Halle Berry. Instantly, Adrien Brody had melded into my psyche as one of the great Oscar moments of my Academy-adoring experience, and I needed to know how someone as young and unknown as he could beat such heavyweights (and beloved ones by me) like Michael Caine, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis (no I don't list the other one, as I am not a fan-go to imdb if you want to find nominee number five).

It was, in fact, a no-brainer decision on the part of the Academy after I viewed the sharp, character-driven The Pianist. The film surrounds Adrien Brody with a deft, insightful look at how tragedy can destroy a man. However, it is Brody who transfixes us. Those early scenes, with the cocky, talented Brody, lead us to emotionally collapse when the Germans begin to round up the Jews. The claustrophobia he feels in the ghetto, the way he uses silence to shout out loud in those later scenes. And of course, there is that infamous moment (at least infamous for me, as I often sight it as one of the most heart-breaking of this decade) where Szpilman plays the piano, reunited with his one true love, playing for his life, but also for his sanity. Brody knocks that out of the park. It seems shocking that Oscar would honor such a deft, quiet turn, but hey, sometimes they accidentally get it right.

For those who love the Brody, later screenings, are, well, harder to find, as this perf is pretty recent. I never saw The Village, because Shyamalan has been nothing but disappointment since that brilliant debut. However, I do have two favorite moments since then: Adrien's cocky Coca-Cola commercial, which ranks alongside of Kate Winslet's American Express outing as my favorite celebrity endorsement, and King Kong, where Brody isn't the standout (that would be the duet between Naomi and Andy), but the film itself is a treasure trove of great film-watching.

100. Henry Thomas (E.T.: the Extra-Terrestrial

2006-04-01T19:00:00.000-08:00

100. All right, I've finally found a use for this blog, that of dedicating myself to the 100 Greatest Performances I have ever seen. Now, this is as of April Fool's Day 2006, so any films I see after this (like say, La Dolce Vita or 8 1/2, both out from Netflix, even though I cannot bring myself to watch them).

So, these are my personal canon (I hopefully will interrupt this blog with some other interesting asides). There are performances on this list that I 'm not even going to begin to argue are the greatest acting pieces ever made, but they are my favorites. So now, perched out at Number 100, I have the child pictured above, post his infamous flight aboard the bicycle.

Steven Spielberg has always had good luck with actorly youth: Dakota Fanning in War of the Worlds, Drew Barrymore in E.T., those Jurassic Park kids, and then there's one that will show up later in this countdown. However, it is Henry Thomas who manages to capture that elusive sense of wonderment that Spielberg desperately clings for in all his movies. He used that ultimate actorly tool (the eyes) to instill both sadness and determination with his newfound friend E.T. Freddie Highmore wishes that he could equal the heartbreaking subtlety that Thomas brought to his Elliot. The entire rest of the cast, even the adorable Drew Barrymore, are caught up in the earthly problems of looking into the beauty of E.T., but also knowing that reality would set in and the alien would return home. It is only Thomas who believably, every time you watch this remarkable adventure, transends Spielberg's rather formulaic plot (I love Spielberg, but you always know where he's headed). Sure the effects are magnficient and that John Williams score is epic fancy, but it is Thomas, his whimsy, his utter hope, who makes E.T. so heavenly.

(For those of you who want to catch a more adult Thomas, make sure to see the beautiful Legends of the Fall, one of those epics that got lost in the mid-1990s, but is surely one of the best post-Golden Age Westerns).

Bernard Herrmann, The Academy Hardly Knew Ya

2006-03-19T09:25:00.000-08:00

Every year, there are certain people that the Oscars simply dismiss as they collect the list of cinema's finest. These people, who go on to have great careers despite the loss of that coveted nomination, seem to be gracious and rather philosophical about it, but you have to wonder-are they secretly putting pins in a secret Oscar statue (bought at Universal, as they can't get one of their own) in their bedrooms, spiting the Academy for ignoring their brilliance.

One such person like this has to be Bernard Herrmann. Sure, Herrmann has an Oscar for the completely unseen The Devil and Daniel Webster, but by winning for that, he lost to the melodic and haunting Citizen Kane score.

However, this snub is nothing compared to the losses he sustained for scoring Hitchcock's maddening works in the fifties. The Birds, North By Northwest, Psycho, Vertigo-all brilliant (the last two so brilliant they made my recent list of the best film scores of all time), and yet he didn't receive a cent for them at the Oscars-not even a lone nomination. The reasons for this are several: the Academy never much cared for Hitchcock (notice how he never took home a competitive trophy) and they like the more traditional Maurice Jarre/John Williams type music. Still, they can't be proud that they honored films like Boy on a Dolphin, Separate Tables, and Cleopatra instead of these classics (it should be noted that, the year they snubbed Psycho, they also turned down a chance to reward Bernstein's The Magnificent Seven).

So what about you-what's your favorite Herrmann score? Which composer do you still simmer over losing at the Oscars?

Oscar Predictions

2006-01-30T20:47:00.000-08:00

Here are my predictions for the Oscars (ranked from most likely to least likely):

Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Crash
4. Walk the Line
5. Capote
I'm going with the obvious lineup-I'm not feeling Munich, and The Constant Gardener's increase in buzz came too late.

Director
1. Ang Lee
2. George Clooney
3. Bennett Miller
4. Steven Spielberg
5. Fernando Meirelles
The Director Branch has been prone to upsets lately (and so I'm guessing that they go with recent favorite son Meirelles, as well as the beloved Spielberg)

Actor
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman
2. Heath Ledger
3. Joaquin Phoenix
4. David Straitharn
5. Russell Crowe
I'm loathe to predict the obvious lineup, but Crowe has hit every precursor-I think he'll sail in (though I hold out hope that Ralph Fiennes will somehow make it).

Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Felicity Huffman
3. Judi Dench
4. Charlize Theron
5. Zhang Ziyi
Personally, I think that Ziyi and Keira Knightley are in a wire-tight race, but I'm going Ziyi (in a perfect world 4 and 5 would be replaced by Naomi Watts and Q'Orianka Kilcher).

Supporting Actor
1. George Clooney
2. Paul Giamatti
3. Matt Dillon
4. Jake Gyllenhaal
5. Frank Langella
The first three are locks, Gyllenhaal should be a lock, and will likely sneak in. The fifth slot has been completely unpredictable, but I'm going with Frank Langella over Terrence Howard, as Langella has been in Hollywood longer and Howard will split his vote.

Supporting Actress
1. Michelle Williams
2. Rachel Weisz
3. Catherine Keener
4. Frances McDormand
5. Amy Adams
Bello is the odd woman out here-Adams is the new girl on the block (who doesn't love that), Keener is the subtle critical favorite, and McDormand is the oft-nominated one (fourth nomination here).

Original Screenplay
1. Good Night, and Good Luck
2. Crash
3. The Squid and the Whale
4. Match Point
5. Syriana
Syriana's switch may cost it's nomination to some oddball nominee (this could have something like Wallace and Gromit or Mrs. Henderson Presents pop up), but otherwise, these look like a good crop. Crash will win here, and Clooney will take Best Supporting Actor, imo.

Adapted Screenplay
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Capote
3. The Constant Gardener
4. A History of Violence
5. Walk the Line
Fairly standar (lots of Best Picture contenders)-History of Violence or Walk the Line may fall to Munich, but I think that that film has been forgotten by most Oscar voters.

Costume
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Walk the Line
4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
5. The White Countess
The White Countess is my odd-shot nominee-the Costume guilds usually go with some tiny film, and the final Merchant/Ivory may get it.

Animated
1. Wallace and Gromit
2. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
3. Madagascar
I wish it would be Howl's Moving Castle...

Cinematography
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Memoirs of a Geisha (so undeserving)
4. The New World
5. Jarhead
Roger Deakins is my longshot nominee for Jarhead (and this is the first of several nominations that I suspect The New World could receive-it was truly beautiful)-the Academy LOVES him.

Art Direction
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. King Kong
4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
5. Brokeback Mountain
The leading Best Picture nominee always gets a questionable nominee (think Chicago for Cinematography or The Aviator for Supporting Actor)-this will be it for Brokeback. Charlie will be nominated along the lines of The Grinch.

Film Editing
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Walk the Line
4. The Constant Gardener
5. Crash
Gardener is beautifully edited-it will oust Munich or Capote.

Visual Effects
1. King Kong
2. Star Wars Episode 3
3. War of the Worlds
I hope Harry Potter ousts Star Wars or War of the Worlds, but I won't count on it.

Makeup
1. Chronicles of Narnia
2. The New World
3. A History of Violence
I have a sneaking suspicion that The Libertine may sail into this category (they always pick something odd for Best Makeup), but I'm going with these three (Chronicles better start preparing to win this).

Score
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Brokeback Mountain
3. Cinderella Man
4. King Kong
5. The New World
Williams, Newman, Shore, and Horner are Academy favorites (Santaolalla will be the new member of the club).

Song
1. Transamerica
2. The Producers
3. Crash
4. Hustle and Flow
5. Mad Hot Ballroom
That Brokeback isn't eligible here is a shame.

Sound
1. Walk the Line
2. King Kong
3. Memoirs of a Geisha
4. Brokeback Mountain
5. Munich
Ray proved last year that musical films win here-Walk the Line will take this (though it should go to the eloquent Brokeback).

Sound Effects Editing
1. King Kong
2. War of the Worlds
3. Chronicles of Narnia
Please let HP4 get a nod somewhere!!!

All right, there they are-in about eight hours, we'll find out how wrong I am!

Golden Globes Thoughts

2006-01-16T20:23:00.000-08:00

Favorite Quips:

"What kind of parent names their kid Jack when they have off in their last name?"-George Clooney

"Oh my god, I don't remember any of your names." -Sandra Oh (didn't you love Reese helping her to the stage?)

"Well, that didn't actually happen."-Geena Davis (funniest moment of the night)

The whole hot flash speech-S. Epatha Merkerson

"I'd like to thank my typewriter." -Larry McMurtry

Best Dressed: Queen Latifah and Scarlett Johansson

Worst Dressed: Drew Barrymore and Adrien Brody

Nicest win:
1. Rachel Weisz-I, at least, was surprised, and pleasantly so.
2. Reese Witherspoon-She's so adorable.

Why, oh why?:
1 (and only-I didn't mind most of the winners-even the ones who I didn't particularly want I wasn't adamently against). Phillip Seymour Hoffman-Heath Ledger should have that trophy (well, anyone nominated in this category aside from Hoffman deserved this); this fixes it-he's this year's Hilary Swank.

Interesting Notes:
For the second year in a row, the Golden Globe Winner for Best Song won't be nominated at the Oscars-last year this meant that there was an upset-hopefully that will occur again this year.

John Williams won his first Golden Globe in twenty three years (last time was for E.T.)-every time that he has won the Globe, he has gone to win the Oscar.

What it means for the Awards:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman now has the Oscar locked up (and I couldn't be more bummed-the best performance of last year lost to the most overrated performance at the Oscars-this year, it looks set to repeat itself).

I personally think that Felicity Huffman may be a tougher shot at the Oscar than most people realize-her speech was better, imo, than Reese's tonight, and Oscar doesn't always like being told to crown someone-plus the uglification trend could continue.

I think Michelle Williams may be the loser who gained the most tonight-Ledger lost, she looks like the only actor to gain from Brokeback-I could see her taking out Rachel Weisz ala Portman/Blanchett last year.

George Clooney is the new King of Hollywood-all hail!

And finally, a numbers question: who got more thank yous, Ang Lee or Steve Carrell's wife?

Capote, The Family Stone, Syriana, and that Brokeback Mountain

2005-12-19T19:57:00.000-08:00

All right, I'm giving this another shot (if only because I'm waiting for South Park, the newest thing that I can self-loathe myself for adoring, isn't on for another half an hour). In the midst of Finals Week (what a torturous device that is), I managed to catch the following films: here's a take on them.

Capote-Philliip Seymour Hoffman, I'm fairly certain, lives only to irk me. His fimography would be impressive (Cold Mountain, Boogie Nights, and Magnolia would be a grand resume for most), if it weren't for the fact that he mucks up anything he enters. Those scenes in Cold Mountain may have been the worst distraction in a movie I may have otherwise liked since Mickey Rooney wandered onto the Breakfast at Tiffany's set (not that I'm comparing the fine but long Cold Mountain to the sparkling and polished Tiffany's, but you see my point). He continues on with his quest in Capote, a film that disects an interesting man into a heap of ticks and mannerisms. Sure, Hoffman manages to mimic Capote's lilt and walk, but he never allows the viewers inside of this complex individual. When the doors are shut, Hoffman is still performing, not letting Capote's guard down. As a result, the emotional tugs at the end aren't pulling hard enough. Catherine Keener and Clifton Collins wish to step and give it their all, but with Hoffman keeping everyone at a distance, it is impossible to connect to anyone. The feeling is indeed cold at the end, but it is not over Perry Smith's blood-it is simply from never being allowed into the movie. (C)

The Family Stone-From cold to warm: chestnuts-roasting-on-the-fire while I try on the latest sweater from Eddie Bauer warm. The Family Stone is too cute for its own good, and never really puts itself together, but the pieces it tries to assemble are worth investigating, at least for a while. Diane Keaton, in her matronly best, treads through the familiar territory of a matriarch; Craig T. Nelson, absent from his blase Coach, is all heart and home as the too-good-to-be-true father; and of course, Rachel McAdams, devilish and witty as the wicked sister. The only major character who doesn't work is Sarah Jessica Parker (yes, Carrie Bradshaw can fail at something other than not choosing Aidan)-she's a bitch without much of a reason to react the way she does. In the end, I found myself hoping that they'd throw her out on her coutured derriere and leave me to my hopelessly hip Stone Family. (B-)

Syriana-Traffic, so fresh and exciting in 2000, left an imprint that many other issue films would do well to look into: it's a multi-charactered story that manages to pull together a plot, as well as instill the urgency of its political hot potato. Syriana, while not quite the smooth sailor that Traffic is (Syriana gets a little too bogged down in the politics of its presentation, and doesn't allow for as full of character arcs), still manages to capture the basics of a good flick. The standouts include Damon's desert breakdown, Clooney's cool-under-pressure agent, and the omnipresent essence of Chris Cooper (seriously, are he and William Hurt going to be in EVERY movie I see this year?) Syriana's ending may be a little bit long, but the rest snaps. (B+)

Brokeback Mountain-As always, I saved the best for last, and I just don't mean in this column. Brokeback Mountain may be the best movie of the decade that Peter Jackson didn't have a hand in. It's timeless love story between Jake and Heath is complex and starts plainly enough-Lee spends the first twenty minutes of the movie carving out his own little world, and then gives the audience the love that they will be recalling for the remainder of the film. The movie itself reads as if it's sixty years old and made yesterday all at once, mastering scene after classic scene as if it's appealing to both today's and tomorrow's audiences: Heath's breakdown after their first goodybe, the passionate reunion, Alma's (Michelle Williams) "you don't go up there to fish" speech. By the time the movie has begun to reach its climax, it has crescendoed to such extraordinary lengths, it just washes over the audience. The ending proves that movies can become better with every passing frame, but its the entire work that proves that movies, well, they just can't get any better. (A+)

The Girls, Gilmore

2005-05-11T08:51:00.000-07:00

All right, 2005 has given me nothing of worth film wise (caught Kingdom of Heaven last night-blech!), but I have become obsessed with my delightful Stars Hollow Ladies. What a fantastic show this is-I find myself alternating between mimicking the brilliantly charming Lorelai and the brainy, good girl who occasionally goes bad Rory. I've spent the last five months memorizing the first two seasons (thank god for TVDVD) and have decided life would be much better if we all interjected a little bit of Stars Hollow in our lives-quote more Gore Vidal, eat more pizza at ten o'clock at night, have proper breakfasts every morning, spend entire nights making fun of bad movies. Which aspects of Gilmore Girls would you most like to see in your lives? What other shows would you like to see copy your life?

This is a test, only a test

2005-05-08T17:10:00.000-07:00

All right, I'm going to join that not so exclusive club of Internet Blogging. I will have something far more interesting for my next rant, but for right now, I'm just seeing if this works or if it's one of my many technological boondoggles (yes, I use that word and am under 25).