The Senate list is getting tighter, more efficient-the Top Four are getting further and further away from the Republican's hold, and the next four are getting tighter and tighter together. Anything after Number Nine will be a HUGE upset, but considering the volatility of this year, I wouldn't doubt a surprise could happen.
1. Pennsylvania-Santorum seems to have faded into oblivion, and Bob Casey, Jr. has started to outraise the incumbent. This will probably be the Democrat's favorite moment of the night, defeating the poster child of the Religious Right. (1)
2. Montana-Burns is starting to gain, but Tester appears solidly over 50 percent. Burns only hope would be in that Bush has a net positive in Montana, one of the few states he can claim that over. (2)
3. Ohio-The Republicans are bailing out of Ohio, and insiders state that DeWine is down by double digits at this point. (3)
4. Rhode Island-Whitehouse has opened up a solid single digit lead over Chafee, and the national Republicans aren't even mentioning him in ad buys at the moment. What with Shays and Chafee potentially going down, could this cycle be the death of the New England Republican? (4)
5. Missouri-Claire McCaskill has started airing the most powerful ad of the cycle, featuring Michael J. Fox in an advanced state of Parkinson's Disease. This could be a make-or-break moment among independents, so look to see public opinion. (5)
6. Tennessee-Ford has done absolutely everything right in this race: kept his negatives down, made his Republican look on weak on almost every issue, and basically run the most flawless campaign of the cycle. If this race was in Michigan or Washington, it would be a done deal at this point. The only thing helping Corker is that guaranteed 47 percent that a Republican comes with in Tennessee. (6)
7. Virginia-I said last time that this could be one of the races that picks up if the challenger starts shooting forward. Jim Webb is that candidate. Allen, like Corker in Tennessee, starts this race with a guaranteed 47 percent. If the momentum continues, Allen will lose, but he only has sixteen days to catch up-will there be enough time? (8)
8. New Jersey-If momentum continues, the Republicans will have given up possibly their best shot of the cycle. Had Liddy Dole adopted Tom Kean's campaign earlier, they could have made Kean the boy wonder of the cycle. Instead, Menendez defined Kean and this is slowly becoming out-of-reach for the Republicans. Now, I won't say this is in stone for the D's (particularly because Menendez often let's his mouth start yapping), but at the moment, the most vulnerable D-seat is looking less and less vulnerable. (7)
9. Maryland-Polls range from being in the MOE to being a solid lead for Cardin. Either way, it's looking more and more like the Democrats will come home once more in Maryland to help oust the Republicans. Let's just hope that when Babs Mikulski retires, the Democrats put up someone more exhilerating than Cardin. (9)
10. Michigan-Stabenow's seat is suddenly becoming more and more in play, and I think if this was September instead of October, the Republicans would start pouring money into this race, but at this point they are only able to go on defense in VA, MO, and TN. (11)
11. Nebraska-I put this one next because Ben Nelson holds this seat on some sort of borrowed time. The Democratic wave will make him win, but I suspect he'll start stockpiling for 2012, when he'll have to go up against presidential race. Republicans are probably kicking themselves for not forcing Johanns, Nelson, or Heinemann into this race. (12)
12. Washington-Cantwell has done it-the National Republicans are dropping out of this race, Cantwell has a solid lead, and the wave will carry Cantwell into a second term. I'd recommend, if she wants to hold this seat for years to come, she should start connecting more with the voters ala Patty Murray. (10)
13. Arizona-The wave is the only thing keeping this on the table. This may end up being the Democrats one that got away, as Pederson probably won't be able to top 45 percent at this point. (13)
14. Nevada-The biggest mover on this list, not just because Carter has officially topped 40 percent, but because Gibbons scandal can't help Ensign in this race. One has to wonder how many scandals Ensign can juggle without falling. (18)
15. Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar seems inevitable at this point, as Mark Kennedy seems to be running one of the worst campaigns I've seen. The real question here is whether or not Minnesota, after the very blue 2004 and what could be another very blue 2006, has simply returned to its liberal roots (thus damaging severely Norm's chances in 2008). (14)
16. Vermont-Sanders continues to slide into the easiest open seat race of the cycle. (15)
17. West Virginia-Byrd, considering the current climate, would have been the Republicans' smartest investment, but they didn't give to Raese early enough this cycle to do any good and Byrd will be orating on the Senate floor for (god-willing) another six years. (16)
18. Connecticut-Lieberman's going to win, so let's hope that Reid et al. are planning on handing him a key committee assignment to keep him from migrating to the other side. (17)
19. Florida-Harris continues to sound like a better-looking Alan Keyes. Even in Florida, Keyes couldn't win, and Harris won't either. (19)
20. Hawaii-I'm moving this up more because Akaka, who may be wounded amongst moderates from the primary, lost a major newspaper announcement. He won't lose, but he probably may stay below 60 percent. (20)
Sunday, October 22, 2006
Sunday, October 15, 2006
House Race Outlook
Here they are again, ranked from most likely to change to least likely. There are no new entrants this week (though if I had a list of forty, there would be several more very vulnerable Republicans seeping into it)
1. Arizona-8: Does anyone think that Graf can win? He's getting no bounce from the McCain endorsement, and Giffords basically has office space lined up. (1)
2. Texas-22: The ethical debate is going to help Lampson dramatically. Sekula-Gibbs's clock is ticking over trying to get her name out there... (5)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Sherwood's in the middle of a huge ethical scandal, and suddenly his opponent Chris Carney has opened a dramatic lead. This is the Dems to lose at this point. (3)
4. Florida-16: Tim Mahoney is leading in the latest polls, but the NRCC is spending a mint trying to hold this (possibly out of fear that Mahoney will turn into Melissa Bean). (2)
5. Indiana-8: The latest round of polls, another week of Ellsworth double-digit leads. Hostettler just this week started to campaign on television. (6)
6. Colorado-7: O'Donnell is closing the gap, but is it enough? Ritter's coattails could help here, but will the marginality of this district help at all for the GOP? (4)
7. Ohio-18: One of the biggest jumps this week, mainly because Joy Padgett has yet to gain a lead, despite having weeks to gain notoriety (err, name recognition). Bankruptcy and Ney floating into the news again only helps Space. (12)
8. Indiana-2: Donnelly continues to cruise to reelection in what has to be the oddest race of the cycle. (7)
9. Iowa-1: Polls are starting to align again for Democrat Braley, but Whalen seems to be able to turn the campaign very nasty. (8)
10. New York-26: Reynolds does not appear to have recovered from the Foley scandal, and Davis has yet to make any mistakes. (9)
11. Pennsylvania-6: The Murphy/Gerlach race isn't the lock that it used to be for the Democrats, but the reality is that this will go to whomever wins the House. If the Democrats win it back, it'll be Lois Murphy. If the Republicans hang on, it'll be Gerlach. (10)
12. Indiana-9: Unlike Donnelly and Ellsworth, Baron Hill is a known commodity and that makes this slightly more difficult for the Democrats. This is definitely third in Indiana, but the unfavorable conditions for Democrats there won't help Sodrel. (13)
13. Pennsylvania-7: Though the aftereffect of the Weldon scandal isn't completely known, my guess is that it won't be good. Look at what happened to Don Sherwood, Joy Padgett, etc. and you can see why Joe Sestak is so happy. (16)
14. Ohio-15: Every major pundit is starting to write off Deborah Pryce, and I don't know why-it seems like the best type of tossup. However, pundits tend to know these things, and Pryce certainly isn't gaining from the Foley scandal. (14)
15. Connecticut-2: It seems fitting that this is at fifteen-it's the seat that no one can gage. If the Democrats have any sort of wave, I'd suspect that this gets swept away. Otherwise, Simmons is a consummate campaigner. (11)
16. North Carolina-11: Rep. Charles Taylor is not doing well against Shuler in the light of the Culture of Corruption coming back to light. (15)
17. Connecticut-4: I was preparing to write this seat off until Chris Shays started to say more stupid things than Tom Reynolds. This was looking like a race that simply favored Shays because he's the incumbent, but now that there's a reason to vote him out of office... (26)
18. New York-24: Arcuri's getting good press over Meier, and no Republican is safe this cycle in New York. (19)
19. New Mexico-1: This will be one of the most fun seats on Election Night. One could make plausible arguments about either woman being ahead, and this may be the definitive bellwether district. (17)
20. Florida-22: Clay Shaw is in a mildly Democratic district that could fall as it neighbors the Foley district. Klein's a great campaigner, but Shaw's done this before. (18)
21. Florida-13: I'm guessing that this goes the same way as Shaw, as it has about the same reason to switch. Jennings is the real deal as a candidate, and Vern Buchanan is a bad campaigner. (20)
22. Illinois-6: If the Hastert angle of the Foley scandal resonates anywhere, it will be in this district. Duckworth is the one with all of the momentum, but will Roskam be able to sit on top of the GOP advantage? (21)
23. Wisconsin-8: Kagen appears to have all of the heat in this race, and if the Democrats win here, they'll easily be taking back the House. This is getting more and more on people's radar screens, and is a true tossup. (25)
24. Minnesota-6: If Wetterling's going to get in, will it be because of Foley's scandal or the burgeoning coattails that Amy Klobuchar is drawing? Every poll that shows that Kennedy is losing by double digits won't help Republican turnout in the most Republican district in Minnesota. (24)
25. Ohio-1: This doesn't have the same marquee value as Ohio 15 and 18, but for Republicans in Ohio, can Republicans rest on their laurels? (22)
26. Kentucky-4: Ken Lucas has stumbled a bit in the last couple of weeks, and unlike Ohio or Pennsylvania, there's no new races to get the vote out here. (27)
27. Washington-8: Both national parties are poring money into this race, and Burner is rising, but is it too late? (28)
28. Pennsylvania-8: In an odd move, a PA Republican is getting better buzz than a PA Democrat. Apparently, Fitzpatrick is running a fairly effective ad campaign. (23)
29. Virginia-2: Phil Kellam was headed to Congress before the assault charges, but Thelma Drake has to be breathing a lot easier at this point and praying that George Allen doesn't say anything stupid again. (29)
30. Connecticut-5: If this is a true wave, Nancy Johnson's effective campaign won't be able to work. Otherwise, Chris Murphy better start gunning for 2008. (30)
1. Arizona-8: Does anyone think that Graf can win? He's getting no bounce from the McCain endorsement, and Giffords basically has office space lined up. (1)
2. Texas-22: The ethical debate is going to help Lampson dramatically. Sekula-Gibbs's clock is ticking over trying to get her name out there... (5)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Sherwood's in the middle of a huge ethical scandal, and suddenly his opponent Chris Carney has opened a dramatic lead. This is the Dems to lose at this point. (3)
4. Florida-16: Tim Mahoney is leading in the latest polls, but the NRCC is spending a mint trying to hold this (possibly out of fear that Mahoney will turn into Melissa Bean). (2)
5. Indiana-8: The latest round of polls, another week of Ellsworth double-digit leads. Hostettler just this week started to campaign on television. (6)
6. Colorado-7: O'Donnell is closing the gap, but is it enough? Ritter's coattails could help here, but will the marginality of this district help at all for the GOP? (4)
7. Ohio-18: One of the biggest jumps this week, mainly because Joy Padgett has yet to gain a lead, despite having weeks to gain notoriety (err, name recognition). Bankruptcy and Ney floating into the news again only helps Space. (12)
8. Indiana-2: Donnelly continues to cruise to reelection in what has to be the oddest race of the cycle. (7)
9. Iowa-1: Polls are starting to align again for Democrat Braley, but Whalen seems to be able to turn the campaign very nasty. (8)
10. New York-26: Reynolds does not appear to have recovered from the Foley scandal, and Davis has yet to make any mistakes. (9)
11. Pennsylvania-6: The Murphy/Gerlach race isn't the lock that it used to be for the Democrats, but the reality is that this will go to whomever wins the House. If the Democrats win it back, it'll be Lois Murphy. If the Republicans hang on, it'll be Gerlach. (10)
12. Indiana-9: Unlike Donnelly and Ellsworth, Baron Hill is a known commodity and that makes this slightly more difficult for the Democrats. This is definitely third in Indiana, but the unfavorable conditions for Democrats there won't help Sodrel. (13)
13. Pennsylvania-7: Though the aftereffect of the Weldon scandal isn't completely known, my guess is that it won't be good. Look at what happened to Don Sherwood, Joy Padgett, etc. and you can see why Joe Sestak is so happy. (16)
14. Ohio-15: Every major pundit is starting to write off Deborah Pryce, and I don't know why-it seems like the best type of tossup. However, pundits tend to know these things, and Pryce certainly isn't gaining from the Foley scandal. (14)
15. Connecticut-2: It seems fitting that this is at fifteen-it's the seat that no one can gage. If the Democrats have any sort of wave, I'd suspect that this gets swept away. Otherwise, Simmons is a consummate campaigner. (11)
16. North Carolina-11: Rep. Charles Taylor is not doing well against Shuler in the light of the Culture of Corruption coming back to light. (15)
17. Connecticut-4: I was preparing to write this seat off until Chris Shays started to say more stupid things than Tom Reynolds. This was looking like a race that simply favored Shays because he's the incumbent, but now that there's a reason to vote him out of office... (26)
18. New York-24: Arcuri's getting good press over Meier, and no Republican is safe this cycle in New York. (19)
19. New Mexico-1: This will be one of the most fun seats on Election Night. One could make plausible arguments about either woman being ahead, and this may be the definitive bellwether district. (17)
20. Florida-22: Clay Shaw is in a mildly Democratic district that could fall as it neighbors the Foley district. Klein's a great campaigner, but Shaw's done this before. (18)
21. Florida-13: I'm guessing that this goes the same way as Shaw, as it has about the same reason to switch. Jennings is the real deal as a candidate, and Vern Buchanan is a bad campaigner. (20)
22. Illinois-6: If the Hastert angle of the Foley scandal resonates anywhere, it will be in this district. Duckworth is the one with all of the momentum, but will Roskam be able to sit on top of the GOP advantage? (21)
23. Wisconsin-8: Kagen appears to have all of the heat in this race, and if the Democrats win here, they'll easily be taking back the House. This is getting more and more on people's radar screens, and is a true tossup. (25)
24. Minnesota-6: If Wetterling's going to get in, will it be because of Foley's scandal or the burgeoning coattails that Amy Klobuchar is drawing? Every poll that shows that Kennedy is losing by double digits won't help Republican turnout in the most Republican district in Minnesota. (24)
25. Ohio-1: This doesn't have the same marquee value as Ohio 15 and 18, but for Republicans in Ohio, can Republicans rest on their laurels? (22)
26. Kentucky-4: Ken Lucas has stumbled a bit in the last couple of weeks, and unlike Ohio or Pennsylvania, there's no new races to get the vote out here. (27)
27. Washington-8: Both national parties are poring money into this race, and Burner is rising, but is it too late? (28)
28. Pennsylvania-8: In an odd move, a PA Republican is getting better buzz than a PA Democrat. Apparently, Fitzpatrick is running a fairly effective ad campaign. (23)
29. Virginia-2: Phil Kellam was headed to Congress before the assault charges, but Thelma Drake has to be breathing a lot easier at this point and praying that George Allen doesn't say anything stupid again. (29)
30. Connecticut-5: If this is a true wave, Nancy Johnson's effective campaign won't be able to work. Otherwise, Chris Murphy better start gunning for 2008. (30)
Friday, October 13, 2006
Five Ups, Five Downs
On the rise:
1. New York Democrats: Spitzer, Clinton, and Cuomo are all cruising to a massive reelection. Tom Reynolds is falling faster than Superman coated in kryptonite. All of this adds up to vulnerable Republicans: it appears, according to a recent string of polls, it may be more than just NY-24 and NY-29: Sue Kelly, Peter King, and John Sweeney are all very vulnerable.
2. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives: Republicans have scaled back their ad wars in districts like Alan Mollohan's and John Spratt's, and once vulnerable Democrats are turning into safe bets for reelection. This also includes Charlie Wilson in Ohio-6, who may the easiest reelection of any candidate who was written off at some point in this cycle.
3. Claire McCaskill: McCaskill hit a historic and pivotal point in her campaign this last week: she cracked fifty percent in a poll, and in SurveyUSA no less! While it is still too soon to race this anything but a tossup, if this continues, it may join Rhode Island and Ohio as a race that everyone's calling a Tossup but is leaning to the Democrats.
4. Nancy Johnson-Another poll, another Johnson lead-Murphy just doesn't appear to be gathering enough traction this cycle, all of which is making it look like one CT Republican will be returning in November. Murphy better be hoping that Johnson retires in 2008, as that may be his only shot at winning this seat.
5. Mike DeWine-I list him not because he's leading in any polls, but because the Republicans are rumored to be spending $10 million to try to keep DeWine in the Senate. If you ask me, this would be smarter spent in New Jersey or Missouri, but to each his own.
On the fall:
1. Chris Shays-Just when he was cruising to a difficult, but increasingly certain reelection, he says one of the least intelligent comments of the cycle, saying that unlike Teddy Kenneddy, Mark Foley didn't kill anyone. There are no polls out right now, but it appears as if Shays calling a U.S. Senator a murderer won't help his race in liberal Connecticut.
2. Angie Paccione-The Democrats have started to pull money out of this race, which can only spell a loss for Paccione.
3. Curt Weldon-Already in a tight race, he's now in his own lobbying scandal. This could not have had worse timing for Weldon, who may have just used his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card.
4. Patrick Murphy-Apparently Mike Fitzpatrick's latest ad is a doozy, and Murphy could be labeled too young and inexperienced at this point.
5. Vern Buchanan-He's sinking his money into the race, and yet Jennings seems to have pulled a very real lead at this point in the wake of the Harris/Foley train wrecks.
1. New York Democrats: Spitzer, Clinton, and Cuomo are all cruising to a massive reelection. Tom Reynolds is falling faster than Superman coated in kryptonite. All of this adds up to vulnerable Republicans: it appears, according to a recent string of polls, it may be more than just NY-24 and NY-29: Sue Kelly, Peter King, and John Sweeney are all very vulnerable.
2. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives: Republicans have scaled back their ad wars in districts like Alan Mollohan's and John Spratt's, and once vulnerable Democrats are turning into safe bets for reelection. This also includes Charlie Wilson in Ohio-6, who may the easiest reelection of any candidate who was written off at some point in this cycle.
3. Claire McCaskill: McCaskill hit a historic and pivotal point in her campaign this last week: she cracked fifty percent in a poll, and in SurveyUSA no less! While it is still too soon to race this anything but a tossup, if this continues, it may join Rhode Island and Ohio as a race that everyone's calling a Tossup but is leaning to the Democrats.
4. Nancy Johnson-Another poll, another Johnson lead-Murphy just doesn't appear to be gathering enough traction this cycle, all of which is making it look like one CT Republican will be returning in November. Murphy better be hoping that Johnson retires in 2008, as that may be his only shot at winning this seat.
5. Mike DeWine-I list him not because he's leading in any polls, but because the Republicans are rumored to be spending $10 million to try to keep DeWine in the Senate. If you ask me, this would be smarter spent in New Jersey or Missouri, but to each his own.
On the fall:
1. Chris Shays-Just when he was cruising to a difficult, but increasingly certain reelection, he says one of the least intelligent comments of the cycle, saying that unlike Teddy Kenneddy, Mark Foley didn't kill anyone. There are no polls out right now, but it appears as if Shays calling a U.S. Senator a murderer won't help his race in liberal Connecticut.
2. Angie Paccione-The Democrats have started to pull money out of this race, which can only spell a loss for Paccione.
3. Curt Weldon-Already in a tight race, he's now in his own lobbying scandal. This could not have had worse timing for Weldon, who may have just used his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card.
4. Patrick Murphy-Apparently Mike Fitzpatrick's latest ad is a doozy, and Murphy could be labeled too young and inexperienced at this point.
5. Vern Buchanan-He's sinking his money into the race, and yet Jennings seems to have pulled a very real lead at this point in the wake of the Harris/Foley train wrecks.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
New House Outlook
Here is another take on the Top Thirty. Just one sentences here (check out my previous post for any more in depth analysis). (The previous rank is in parantheses)
1. Arizona-8: Giffords continues to cruise over Graf. The McCain endorsement just doesn't help. (1)
2. Florida-16: Ain't no way that Mark Foley's name is going to help Joe Negron. The Republicans basically should throw in the towel here. (NEW!)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Another scandal-plagued incumbent, Sherwood looks destined for failure to Carney. (21)
4. Colorado-7: Despite a closing of the gap, the fact that Bill Ritter will win here over incumbent Beauprez spells disaster for O'Donnell. (3)
5. Texas-22: Sekula-Gibbs needed a massive amount of money that the National GOP won't give her. (2)
6. Indiana-8: Ellsworth's law enforcement credentials could be a big help in this race. (7)
7. Indiana-2: Joe Donnelly continues to lead Rep. Chris Chocola in one of the most unexplainable races of the cycle (9)
8. Iowa-1: The Zogby poll still throws me, and until the Dems counter, I'll be dropping this race. (4)
9. New York-26: If any member of the House leadership is going down, it will be Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has ran an absolutely abysmal apology campaign (NEW!)
10. Pennsylvania-6: Lois Murphy has started to air ads, and appears to be following the Debbie Stabenow method of flooding the airwaves in the last four weeks. It could work... (6)
11. Connecticut-2: Those most conservative ads are going to hurt Rep. Simmons in this highly partisan atmosphere. (8)
12. Ohio-18: Basically, Joy Padgett is stewing in a sea of corrupt names: now she has to deal with Hastert, Boehner, and Foley to go along with Bush, Taft, and Ney. (17)
13. Indiana-9: The sudden demotion is brought on by an only two point lead for Hill over Sodrely in the latest SurveyUSA poll (5)
14. Ohio-15: Almost every pundit is writing this with Kilroy having an advantage, and the drubbing of the House leadership can't help Pryce (16).
15. North Carolina-11: Again, scandal can't help incumbent Taylor against Shuler. (18)
16. Pennsylvania-7: The NRCC spent a solo weak of spending just against Sestak instead of Murphys squared. That says something about the competitiveness here (26).
17. New Mexico-1: This has actually been an improvement week for Madrid (good polling), but the top fifteen suddenly became more competitive (12).
18. Florida-22: Shaw was running a good campaign, but now he has to tackle the Foley scandal (19).
19. New York-24: Arcuri had a non-scandal last week, but not all press is good press, and in a race this close, everything matters (10).
20. Florida-13: Polls show a wounded Vern Buchanan (R) losing to Christine Jennings (D). The stench of both current incumbent Katherine Harris's Senate campaign, along with neighboring district FL-16 with Foley makes Jennings a white hot candidate right now. This is the only district not directly associated with Foley that's been added this time (NEW!)
21. Illinois-6: Tammy Duckworth has an uphill battle against a non-scandalized GOPer in this red district, but she's kept it microscopic. (20)
22. Ohio-1: Anyone in Ohio should be troubled right now, and that includes Steve Chabot (24).
23. Pennsylvania-8: Will the Rendell/Casey landslides be able to bring the three Philly suburbs along with it? (13)
24. Minnesota-6: The Foley scandal has apparently helped Wetterling close the gap, but will she have the extra oomph to get that final five percent? (25)
25. Wisconsin-8: The gay marriage ban may ultimately elect Gard, but right now Republicans are doing horribly in open seats (27)
26. Connecticut-4: A big demotion, but Shays may be too liberal to lose, and Lieberman is clearly not helping things for the Democrats (11).
27. Kentucky-4: Lucas made a derogatory comment about gays, which isn't the best way to fundraise with liberal donors (14).
28. Washington-8: Dave Reichert still has the edge in this moderate WA district (22)
29. Virginia-2: The Phil Kellam battery scandal will likely sink his candidacy: I'm waiting for polls to back this up (15)
30. Connecticut-5: This is one of the nastiest campaigns of the cycle. Let's not remember what happened to Johnson in 1996 because of links to the GOP leadership (29).
I chose NY-26 and FL-16 to add for obvious reasons-the Foley scandal basically gave the Democrats these two seats. FL-13 is just a hunch, but polls appear to be backing me up.
Here's why I dropped these three:
Georgia-12: With all the money being spent saving Republican incumbents, I doubt that they'll have much left over to pick up this risky venture.
Vermont-AL: Rainville's links to the GOP leadership, however remote, kill her chances in this liberal year/district.
Colorado-4: This was sitting at number 31, I swear, and could still turn.
1. Arizona-8: Giffords continues to cruise over Graf. The McCain endorsement just doesn't help. (1)
2. Florida-16: Ain't no way that Mark Foley's name is going to help Joe Negron. The Republicans basically should throw in the towel here. (NEW!)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Another scandal-plagued incumbent, Sherwood looks destined for failure to Carney. (21)
4. Colorado-7: Despite a closing of the gap, the fact that Bill Ritter will win here over incumbent Beauprez spells disaster for O'Donnell. (3)
5. Texas-22: Sekula-Gibbs needed a massive amount of money that the National GOP won't give her. (2)
6. Indiana-8: Ellsworth's law enforcement credentials could be a big help in this race. (7)
7. Indiana-2: Joe Donnelly continues to lead Rep. Chris Chocola in one of the most unexplainable races of the cycle (9)
8. Iowa-1: The Zogby poll still throws me, and until the Dems counter, I'll be dropping this race. (4)
9. New York-26: If any member of the House leadership is going down, it will be Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has ran an absolutely abysmal apology campaign (NEW!)
10. Pennsylvania-6: Lois Murphy has started to air ads, and appears to be following the Debbie Stabenow method of flooding the airwaves in the last four weeks. It could work... (6)
11. Connecticut-2: Those most conservative ads are going to hurt Rep. Simmons in this highly partisan atmosphere. (8)
12. Ohio-18: Basically, Joy Padgett is stewing in a sea of corrupt names: now she has to deal with Hastert, Boehner, and Foley to go along with Bush, Taft, and Ney. (17)
13. Indiana-9: The sudden demotion is brought on by an only two point lead for Hill over Sodrely in the latest SurveyUSA poll (5)
14. Ohio-15: Almost every pundit is writing this with Kilroy having an advantage, and the drubbing of the House leadership can't help Pryce (16).
15. North Carolina-11: Again, scandal can't help incumbent Taylor against Shuler. (18)
16. Pennsylvania-7: The NRCC spent a solo weak of spending just against Sestak instead of Murphys squared. That says something about the competitiveness here (26).
17. New Mexico-1: This has actually been an improvement week for Madrid (good polling), but the top fifteen suddenly became more competitive (12).
18. Florida-22: Shaw was running a good campaign, but now he has to tackle the Foley scandal (19).
19. New York-24: Arcuri had a non-scandal last week, but not all press is good press, and in a race this close, everything matters (10).
20. Florida-13: Polls show a wounded Vern Buchanan (R) losing to Christine Jennings (D). The stench of both current incumbent Katherine Harris's Senate campaign, along with neighboring district FL-16 with Foley makes Jennings a white hot candidate right now. This is the only district not directly associated with Foley that's been added this time (NEW!)
21. Illinois-6: Tammy Duckworth has an uphill battle against a non-scandalized GOPer in this red district, but she's kept it microscopic. (20)
22. Ohio-1: Anyone in Ohio should be troubled right now, and that includes Steve Chabot (24).
23. Pennsylvania-8: Will the Rendell/Casey landslides be able to bring the three Philly suburbs along with it? (13)
24. Minnesota-6: The Foley scandal has apparently helped Wetterling close the gap, but will she have the extra oomph to get that final five percent? (25)
25. Wisconsin-8: The gay marriage ban may ultimately elect Gard, but right now Republicans are doing horribly in open seats (27)
26. Connecticut-4: A big demotion, but Shays may be too liberal to lose, and Lieberman is clearly not helping things for the Democrats (11).
27. Kentucky-4: Lucas made a derogatory comment about gays, which isn't the best way to fundraise with liberal donors (14).
28. Washington-8: Dave Reichert still has the edge in this moderate WA district (22)
29. Virginia-2: The Phil Kellam battery scandal will likely sink his candidacy: I'm waiting for polls to back this up (15)
30. Connecticut-5: This is one of the nastiest campaigns of the cycle. Let's not remember what happened to Johnson in 1996 because of links to the GOP leadership (29).
I chose NY-26 and FL-16 to add for obvious reasons-the Foley scandal basically gave the Democrats these two seats. FL-13 is just a hunch, but polls appear to be backing me up.
Here's why I dropped these three:
Georgia-12: With all the money being spent saving Republican incumbents, I doubt that they'll have much left over to pick up this risky venture.
Vermont-AL: Rainville's links to the GOP leadership, however remote, kill her chances in this liberal year/district.
Colorado-4: This was sitting at number 31, I swear, and could still turn.
Five Ups, Five Downs
Here's a look at five ups and five downs in this year's elections
Who's Up:
1. Amy Klobuchar-Republicans may spin it any way they want, but both national parties backing out of this race can only spell Senator Amy Klobuchar come November.
2. Second/Third Tier Female Democrats Challenging Republican Men-If the Foley scandal helps anyone, it's women runnning against Republican men. I'm thinking of people like Vic Wulsin, Nancy Boyda, Linda Stender, and Ellen Simon, amongst others, who will receive a three-four point increase because of this.
3. George Allen-There's no doubt that he's taking a little bit of a lead now in Virginia, and with only four weeks left, the DSCC better hope that their ad campaign is effective.
4. Christine Jennings-Somehow she's come out of nowhere and may be able to make Katherine Harris's follies plus Mark Foley's scandal turn into a win for her come November. The polls show she's not to be underestimated.
5. Patty Wetterling-Her opponent doesn't believe in global warming, and the Foley scandal is the complete antithesis to her lifetime of public service on behalf of children.
Who's Down:
1. Lincoln Chafee-The Republicans are funding in OH, TN, and MO for the next four weeks; this doesn't bode well for Linc, who was counting on national Republican money. Is the Democratic wave just too strong for him to hold up in super blue RI?
2. John Baldacci-One Democratic incumbent will go down come Election Night-the irratic nature of Maine voters and his near tie right now make him a prime candidate.
3. Ned Lamont-Lieberman has an almost insurmountable lead right now, and the DSCC won't spend a dime supporting Lamont when the likes of Ford, Menendez, and McCaskill need it more.
4. Dick DeVos-The latest bunch of polls show that Granholm has started a just outside the MOE lead. Her charisma may pull it out over his businessman like style.
5. Tim Pawlenty-Suddenly, this race has Hatch leading and everyone's shifting this to tossup categories. Ill feelings for Republicans can't help in still fairly blue Minnesota.
Who's Up:
1. Amy Klobuchar-Republicans may spin it any way they want, but both national parties backing out of this race can only spell Senator Amy Klobuchar come November.
2. Second/Third Tier Female Democrats Challenging Republican Men-If the Foley scandal helps anyone, it's women runnning against Republican men. I'm thinking of people like Vic Wulsin, Nancy Boyda, Linda Stender, and Ellen Simon, amongst others, who will receive a three-four point increase because of this.
3. George Allen-There's no doubt that he's taking a little bit of a lead now in Virginia, and with only four weeks left, the DSCC better hope that their ad campaign is effective.
4. Christine Jennings-Somehow she's come out of nowhere and may be able to make Katherine Harris's follies plus Mark Foley's scandal turn into a win for her come November. The polls show she's not to be underestimated.
5. Patty Wetterling-Her opponent doesn't believe in global warming, and the Foley scandal is the complete antithesis to her lifetime of public service on behalf of children.
Who's Down:
1. Lincoln Chafee-The Republicans are funding in OH, TN, and MO for the next four weeks; this doesn't bode well for Linc, who was counting on national Republican money. Is the Democratic wave just too strong for him to hold up in super blue RI?
2. John Baldacci-One Democratic incumbent will go down come Election Night-the irratic nature of Maine voters and his near tie right now make him a prime candidate.
3. Ned Lamont-Lieberman has an almost insurmountable lead right now, and the DSCC won't spend a dime supporting Lamont when the likes of Ford, Menendez, and McCaskill need it more.
4. Dick DeVos-The latest bunch of polls show that Granholm has started a just outside the MOE lead. Her charisma may pull it out over his businessman like style.
5. Tim Pawlenty-Suddenly, this race has Hatch leading and everyone's shifting this to tossup categories. Ill feelings for Republicans can't help in still fairly blue Minnesota.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Governors Outlook
And here is part three, the governor's outlook. Like before, these are ranked from most likely to turn over to least likely to turn over. The Democrats seem to have taken the first six rather handily, and then it's basically a sea of vulnerable Democratic seats, that, if the wave hits, likely won't come to fruition. The real question is, will the Republicans be able to keep their hemmoraging to the top six, or will there be problems with a low ranking race that will emerge as an upset.
1. New York-The real question is not whether Eliot Spitzer will win (he will, replacing Gov. George Pataki and giving the Democrats the statehouse for the first time since Mario Cuomo), but will he have coattails? Not just for Andrew Cuomo (running for attorney general), but for the races against Reynolds, Kelly, Sweeney, Walsh, and the rest in the U.S. House, not to mention the State Senate. If he does, he'll suddenly have a bunch of new friends in New York.
2. Ohio-Who would have thought that Rep. Ted Strickland nearly turned down the race for Republican Gov. Bob Taft's? He's now about to become a governor of arguably the most important electoral state in the nation. In the polls, it appears that he's leading Attorney General Kenneth Blackwell by easy double digits, some showing as high as a twenty point lead. The situation in the GOP is so bad that the Democrats are going to actually have constitutional officers after this election-meaning that they'll have a bench for the first time in a decade.
3. Massachusetts-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) got what she wanted, and I think she has the buyer's remorse. Suddenly, Deval Patrick (D), the Democrat who appeared out of nowhere but rode a liberal wave to the Democratic nomination, appears unstoppable. As the only black governor, he'll certainly have a good deal of press during his first term, and I suspect that there will be less of a push to outlaw gay marriage in MA come Gov. Mitt Romney's retirement.
4. Colorado-The state that has turned from deep red to purple to downright navy in less than three years is going to elect a Democratic governor in the form of Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter. The fact is, unlike in 2004, where Pete Coors was a truly hideous candidate, the Republicans have a proven candidate this year in Rep. Bob Beauprez, but the Democrats are just unstoppable here. The real test in this state won't be the governor's race, it will be the constitutional offices, two of which are open and one was filled in 2005 by an appointee. If the Democrats can take any of these, I suspect this state will go for the Democrats for president in 2008.
5. Arkansas-Mike Beebe shouldn't be able to win this so easily. Despite being a popular Democratic attorney general, the governor of Arkansas is just as popular, and he's a Republican. His opponent is Rep. Asa Hutchison, who in theory would be just as good of a candidate as Beebe. And yet, Beebe is going to win-there's little to no doubt about it. The margin of victory is in question, but the victory, that seems certain.
6. Maryland-Pity poor Bob Ehrlich. He's done nothing wrong, other than had a little R behind his name. That's enough for Democratic rising star Martin O'Malley, mayor of Baltimore, to take the lead and could soon take the statehouse. Ehrlich could still pull this off, but with each passing scandal, O'Malley gets closer to winning. Democrats better hope, however, that O'Malley and Cardin coordinate, as either one could fall victim to low turnout if the African American vote is ticked off this cycle in Maryland.
7. Oregon-I'm ranking Oregon above Number Eight simply because no one else is, but the fact is, this could just as easily be ranked Number Eight. Kulongoski's one ace-in-the-whole is that this is very much a Democratic year, and even though he's unpopular, he's got the liberal Oregon thing going for him. Ron Saxton, his State Senator opponent, could be this cycle's Dino Rossi, though, so Kulongoski better be on his guard.
8. Jennifer Granholm was, four years ago, the future of the Democratic party. This year, it appears that she's in the fight of her political life-businessmen Dick DeVos has been running an incredible race and the Michigan economy is in the dumps. However, recent polling has shown Granholm taking a small lead, which makes me wonder if she'll be able to pull this off at the last minute based on her character (not the issues).
9. Minnesota-I push this up higher than most pundits because conventional wisdom is being defied in this race with every passing poll-Mike Hatch is within the margin of error of Gov. Tim Pawlenty in almost every poll done in this race, and the most recent Rasmussen poll shows Hatch with a four-point lead. I suspect that if there is a Democratic wave in 2006, this will be a good bellwether race. This may, in fact, be the only Republican race susceptible to the wave-the first six are going there whether Republicans like it or not-Minnesota's a true tossup.
10. Iowa-Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring (possibly to run for president), and there was a time that this was the most vulnerable Democratic statehouse. Now, with the Mark Foley scandal potentially hurting Rep. Jim Nussle (R), and all polls showing a small but potent lead for Secretary of State Chet Culver, I move it to third place. If the national environment improves for the GOP, I'll move this up, but for now, I think that Culver will become a very, young, tall, attractive potential national candidate in November.
11. Maine-I still believe that Gov. John Baldacci (D) will pull this off (if only in the national environment), but State Sen. Chuck Woodcock (insert your own joke) has made this much more of a race than it had a right to be. This could be the sleeper victory that Republicans are praying for.
12. Wisconsin-Rep. Mark Green was already embroiled in scandal, but now that all House members are underfire for supporting Dennis Hastert/John Boehner, Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has a little breathing room.
13. Rhode Island-Another potential upset (like Maine), but I suspect that the Republicans will end up on the winning side here. Gov. Don Carcieri is too conservative to be elected to a national office from RI, but liberals are more accepting in their statehouses.
14. Nevada-Like Rhode Island, this has a potential to upset, but it'll be a tough race. Rep. Jim Gibbons is just too powerful, too well-known to lose to liberal State Sen. Dina Titus. The national environment will keep this within ten points though.
15. Illinois-Gov. Rod Blagojevich should be going down (considering his approval ratings), but Judy Baar Topinka, despite being the best candidate for the job, has run a crappy campaign-she'll lose, and the Democrats will have another four years of power in Springfield.
16. Alaska-Much like IL, in theory this should be much closer, but Mayor Sarah Palin (R) has put an incredible margin between herself and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).
17. Florida-You'd think in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, the Democratic House member running for governor, Rep. Jim Davis, would be able to gain on Attorney General Charlie Crist (R). He can't, and he'll be a lobbyist in a year.
18. Idaho-The fact that Rep. Butch Otter hasn't completely put this away shows that the Republican national environment is really bad. Otter will win, but it will be closer than you'd think.
19. Texas-I put this here not because Perry will lose, but because with Strayhorn, Friedman, and Bell exchanging second place, it'll be a very unpredictible result.
20. California-Arnold would have lost a year ago. But the Democrats nominated the abysmal Phil Angelides, and Arnold will be starring in a sequel to his first term.
21. South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
22. Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
23. Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (D)
24. Vermont-Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
25. Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
26. Arizona-Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
27. Connecticut-Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
28. Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)
29. Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
30. Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
31. Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
32. New Hampshire-Gov. John Lynch (D)
33. Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (R)
34. South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
35. New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (D)
36. Nebraska-Gov. Dave Heinemann (R)
1. New York-The real question is not whether Eliot Spitzer will win (he will, replacing Gov. George Pataki and giving the Democrats the statehouse for the first time since Mario Cuomo), but will he have coattails? Not just for Andrew Cuomo (running for attorney general), but for the races against Reynolds, Kelly, Sweeney, Walsh, and the rest in the U.S. House, not to mention the State Senate. If he does, he'll suddenly have a bunch of new friends in New York.
2. Ohio-Who would have thought that Rep. Ted Strickland nearly turned down the race for Republican Gov. Bob Taft's? He's now about to become a governor of arguably the most important electoral state in the nation. In the polls, it appears that he's leading Attorney General Kenneth Blackwell by easy double digits, some showing as high as a twenty point lead. The situation in the GOP is so bad that the Democrats are going to actually have constitutional officers after this election-meaning that they'll have a bench for the first time in a decade.
3. Massachusetts-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) got what she wanted, and I think she has the buyer's remorse. Suddenly, Deval Patrick (D), the Democrat who appeared out of nowhere but rode a liberal wave to the Democratic nomination, appears unstoppable. As the only black governor, he'll certainly have a good deal of press during his first term, and I suspect that there will be less of a push to outlaw gay marriage in MA come Gov. Mitt Romney's retirement.
4. Colorado-The state that has turned from deep red to purple to downright navy in less than three years is going to elect a Democratic governor in the form of Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter. The fact is, unlike in 2004, where Pete Coors was a truly hideous candidate, the Republicans have a proven candidate this year in Rep. Bob Beauprez, but the Democrats are just unstoppable here. The real test in this state won't be the governor's race, it will be the constitutional offices, two of which are open and one was filled in 2005 by an appointee. If the Democrats can take any of these, I suspect this state will go for the Democrats for president in 2008.
5. Arkansas-Mike Beebe shouldn't be able to win this so easily. Despite being a popular Democratic attorney general, the governor of Arkansas is just as popular, and he's a Republican. His opponent is Rep. Asa Hutchison, who in theory would be just as good of a candidate as Beebe. And yet, Beebe is going to win-there's little to no doubt about it. The margin of victory is in question, but the victory, that seems certain.
6. Maryland-Pity poor Bob Ehrlich. He's done nothing wrong, other than had a little R behind his name. That's enough for Democratic rising star Martin O'Malley, mayor of Baltimore, to take the lead and could soon take the statehouse. Ehrlich could still pull this off, but with each passing scandal, O'Malley gets closer to winning. Democrats better hope, however, that O'Malley and Cardin coordinate, as either one could fall victim to low turnout if the African American vote is ticked off this cycle in Maryland.
7. Oregon-I'm ranking Oregon above Number Eight simply because no one else is, but the fact is, this could just as easily be ranked Number Eight. Kulongoski's one ace-in-the-whole is that this is very much a Democratic year, and even though he's unpopular, he's got the liberal Oregon thing going for him. Ron Saxton, his State Senator opponent, could be this cycle's Dino Rossi, though, so Kulongoski better be on his guard.
8. Jennifer Granholm was, four years ago, the future of the Democratic party. This year, it appears that she's in the fight of her political life-businessmen Dick DeVos has been running an incredible race and the Michigan economy is in the dumps. However, recent polling has shown Granholm taking a small lead, which makes me wonder if she'll be able to pull this off at the last minute based on her character (not the issues).
9. Minnesota-I push this up higher than most pundits because conventional wisdom is being defied in this race with every passing poll-Mike Hatch is within the margin of error of Gov. Tim Pawlenty in almost every poll done in this race, and the most recent Rasmussen poll shows Hatch with a four-point lead. I suspect that if there is a Democratic wave in 2006, this will be a good bellwether race. This may, in fact, be the only Republican race susceptible to the wave-the first six are going there whether Republicans like it or not-Minnesota's a true tossup.
10. Iowa-Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring (possibly to run for president), and there was a time that this was the most vulnerable Democratic statehouse. Now, with the Mark Foley scandal potentially hurting Rep. Jim Nussle (R), and all polls showing a small but potent lead for Secretary of State Chet Culver, I move it to third place. If the national environment improves for the GOP, I'll move this up, but for now, I think that Culver will become a very, young, tall, attractive potential national candidate in November.
11. Maine-I still believe that Gov. John Baldacci (D) will pull this off (if only in the national environment), but State Sen. Chuck Woodcock (insert your own joke) has made this much more of a race than it had a right to be. This could be the sleeper victory that Republicans are praying for.
12. Wisconsin-Rep. Mark Green was already embroiled in scandal, but now that all House members are underfire for supporting Dennis Hastert/John Boehner, Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has a little breathing room.
13. Rhode Island-Another potential upset (like Maine), but I suspect that the Republicans will end up on the winning side here. Gov. Don Carcieri is too conservative to be elected to a national office from RI, but liberals are more accepting in their statehouses.
14. Nevada-Like Rhode Island, this has a potential to upset, but it'll be a tough race. Rep. Jim Gibbons is just too powerful, too well-known to lose to liberal State Sen. Dina Titus. The national environment will keep this within ten points though.
15. Illinois-Gov. Rod Blagojevich should be going down (considering his approval ratings), but Judy Baar Topinka, despite being the best candidate for the job, has run a crappy campaign-she'll lose, and the Democrats will have another four years of power in Springfield.
16. Alaska-Much like IL, in theory this should be much closer, but Mayor Sarah Palin (R) has put an incredible margin between herself and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).
17. Florida-You'd think in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, the Democratic House member running for governor, Rep. Jim Davis, would be able to gain on Attorney General Charlie Crist (R). He can't, and he'll be a lobbyist in a year.
18. Idaho-The fact that Rep. Butch Otter hasn't completely put this away shows that the Republican national environment is really bad. Otter will win, but it will be closer than you'd think.
19. Texas-I put this here not because Perry will lose, but because with Strayhorn, Friedman, and Bell exchanging second place, it'll be a very unpredictible result.
20. California-Arnold would have lost a year ago. But the Democrats nominated the abysmal Phil Angelides, and Arnold will be starring in a sequel to his first term.
21. South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
22. Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
23. Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (D)
24. Vermont-Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
25. Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
26. Arizona-Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
27. Connecticut-Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
28. Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)
29. Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
30. Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
31. Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
32. New Hampshire-Gov. John Lynch (D)
33. Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (R)
34. South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
35. New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (D)
36. Nebraska-Gov. Dave Heinemann (R)
Senate Outlook
In part two of my three part look at Election 2006, I'll be examining the ten seats most likely to switch in the U.S. Senate. As it was with the House races, the Number One seat is most likely to switch, going to least likely to switch at number ten.
1. Pennsylvania-I toyed with putting this at number two, and a month ago that's where it would have been, but as it is, I am positive of one thing in November: Bob Casey will send the most controversial Republican in the Senate back to Pennsylvania. Liberal activists will rejoice and conservative activists will weep, but Rick Santorum will be sent home after one of the oddest Senate terms in recent memory, where he basically ticked off everyone with a pulse. Casey will certainly be a much-watched senator, the first Democrat elected to a full-term in Pennsylvania since 1962.
2. Montana-This could just as easily be number one, as there is little doubt in my mind that it'll end up going to the challenger, State Senator Jon Tester. Tester has run a rather impressive populist campaign this cycle, especially considering that he's more liberal than the Montana electorate. However, when you're running against an incumbent as scarred as Sen. Conrad Burns, your political ideology might not matter much. With his flannel shirts, blue jeans, and buzz haircut, Tester doesn't look that much like a senator, but come January, he'll be one.
3. Ohio-Who would have thought that Mike DeWine's career would be on its final legs a year ago? Not I, but that's the way it's headed. Sherrod Brown, like Tester, is slightly to the left of the electorate, but that doesn't seem to matter-he's run a superb populist campaign, and appears to be ahead of DeWine. People have often grouped this race with Races Number Five and Seven on this list, but I actually think that this isn't much of a bellwether for Repubicans-any GOP member in Ohio this cycle is running on borrowed time, and DeWine looks to be one of potentially many casualties.
4. Rhode Island-Speaking of borrowed time, any Republican, even if they are as liberal as Sen. Lincoln Chafee, knows that there political career could end at any moment in the bluest state in the nation, Rhode Island. I feel this is the case in Rhode Island this year, as Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse has maintained a small but real lead in the race headed to November. While Whitehouse has an ample base to draw from, Chafee has to deal with dissatisfaction with Bush/Frist/Hastert, the Foleygate, and a lukewarm base brought on by a tough primary in September. Should Whitehouse win this seat in November, expect him to hold it for as long as possible (and for Patrick Kennedy and Jim Langevin to kick themselves for giving up a Senate seat).
5. Missouri-Races 5-7 are where the Senate lies. The first four races, to a lesser or greater degree, favor the challenger (thus theoretically giving the Democrats four seats). The Democrats, however, need a net gain of six seats and still need to hold all of their seats. Should they take seats 5-7, which is a very real possibility at this point, they'll take back the Senate in one of most impressive underdog races I've ever seen.
One of the three races they'll need will be Missouri, and anyone who says that this race leans any way but tossup is just blinded by partisanship. Sen. Jim Talent (R), who filled out a partial term after a special election in 2002, is running his third air-tight race in six years against State Auditor Claire McCaskill. The conventional wisdom here is that McCaskill has a guaranteed 48 percent of the vote, she just needs those last three percent. The latest round of polls show her with a one-two point edge, which may be enough, but I'm reluctant to call anything in this race that has seesawed the entire cycle.
6. Tennessee-I'm going out on a limb and putting this at six when it would be just as easy to put it in position number seven, but like I said, 5-7 are interchangeable. In Bill Frist's open seat (and what's it going to say about his presidential ambitions if he can't hold a red seat in a red state?), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. has been running arguably the best campaign of the cycle, and Mayor Bob Corker has been running the worst. This has led to Ford having a slight lead, despite TN's clear Republican advantage. One has to wonder if and how race will factor in this, as Ford would become the first black man to be elected to the South in the Senate since Reconstruction. In a race this tight, everything from Foley to Gov. Phil Bredeson's (D) coattails to the tempestous turnout battle in Ford's home district could be a factor. If the Democrats win here, they'll have their sixth pickup. That is, if they can hold...
7. New Jersey-Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is easily the most endangered Democrat running for reelection in Congress. Corruption allegations have been slung at him and State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., has turned this into the nastiest Senate battle in the country. If the election had been held two weeks ago, Kean would have been headed to the Senate. As it sits now, it's basically a coin toss. The latest set of polls show that the ball is headed back into Menendez's court, as notoriously fickle NJ Democrats are starting to return to the base in the wake of the Foley scandal. This may be just enough to push Menendez into a full-term in the Senate, but I'm not ready to call it. Like I said, this, as well as Missouri and Tennessee, are the only pure tossups in the Senate races-if the Democrats manage to keep their good fortunes alive, they may take all three and give Harry Reid the majority.
8. Virginia-The following three all have various degrees of advantage for the incumbent, but could potentially fall if the challengers pick up some wind. This one is the most-likely of the three, particularly because it's the only of the three to feature a Republican incumbent. Sen. George Allen has maintained a small, but real lead over Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb. However, Allen's bumbles have been numerous, ranging from macaca comments to ham sandwich jokes, and he's basically ticked off any Democrat who would have potentially crossed over to vote for him. Webb's over $3 million raised in the last quarter will surely help him in the final days, and I suspect that this race will continue to garner bad press for Allen, but this does appear to be the one bright spot on the GOP map at the moment. However, Allen's chances at succeeding Bush went from very bright to nonexistent in the course of this campaign.
9. Maryland-Rep. Ben Cardin (D) is not as exciting as Lt. Governor Michael Steele, but that likely won't matter in the upcoming month. With Republicans everywhere getting a bad rap, Steele's conservatism won't be able to fly in blue state Maryland. The only reason that this race remains in the top ten and hasn't been delegated to the ranks of Vermont/Minnesota is that, aside from the fact that Cardin's recent lead is in fact recent, the question of the black vote is in play here. Will African-Americans turn out in November, even though two prominent African-Americans lost primary races to white men in September? There's no way of knowing, but I suspect that Cardin will be able to get out the vote enough to carry himself to a first-term in the Senate.
10. Washington-I toyed with putting any of the next three races here, but I suspect that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is the most vulnerable of the four. At one point, she seems destined to love to businessman Mike McGavick, but as the race has played out, it seems that Washington doesn't want to send a Republican to D.C., whether or not Cantwell is too moderate for them. Cantwell could still lose this race, particularly if the heat from her involvement with Aaron Dixon continues, but I'm starting to feel that a 7-9 point victory is in order for this accidental senator. Should Cantwell win, she'll likely be able to use her increased seniority over the next six years to establish a better working relationship with WA's Democratic voters, and therefore have easier reelections.
As for the other seats, here they are ranked (I put in some comments, but no in depth commentary, as all of the incumbent parties have a decided edge).
11. Michigan-Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) once looked vulnerable, but Republican troubles will outweigh economic woes in Michigan, and she'll win a second term (and like Cantwell, likely use it to increase voter awareness of herself, as she was also an "accidental" senator).
12. Nebraska-Sen. Ben Nelson (D), as a Democrat in Nebraska, always has to be careful, but should win this race rather handily.
13. Arizona-Sen. Jon Kyl (R) caught a big break when the DSCC decided to shift its funding of Jim Pederson to races like VA, MO, and TN.
14. Minnesota-Succeeding Sen. Mark Dayton (D) will be Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D), as Rep. Mark Kennedy's (R) campaign has set new levels of ineptitude.
15. Vermont-Rep. Bernie Sanders (Independent who will side with the Democrats) looked like he'd have a close call for a second there, but his base has returned and he'll be one of potentially many Democratic freshmen this cycle.
16. West Virginia-Sen. Robert Byrd (D) will take this once competitive race handily. Republicans probably should have targeted this race more, as Byrd's age could have been the Senate equivalent of the Iowa-3 race.
17. Connecticut-This will stay with the Democrats in one way or another (unless Lieberman switches parties, which I doubt will happen), but Joe's Senate run may cause an increased Republican turnout, therefore jeopardizing challengers Farrell, Courtney, and Murphy.
18. Nevada-Certainly no Republican in a mildly competitive race should let his guard down, but Sen. John Ensign's (R) run against Jack Carter in all likelihood will end with a ten point victory for the Republicans.
19. Florida-If Sen. Bill Nelson (D) didn't have it easy enough, polls show that Rep. Katherine Harris's home district will go to a Democrat and Florida will likely be roiled by the Foley scandal most heavily.
20. Maine-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R)-Snowe will almost certainly win, but you have to wonder-if State Senator Michael Brennan or Rep. Tom Allen had run against Snowe this cycle, I suspect that she'd be in the fight of her political life right now.
21. New York-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
22. New Mexico-Sen. Jeff Bingamann (D)
23. Hawaii-Sen. Daniel Akaka (D)
24. Texas-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
25. North Dakota-Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
26. Delaware-Sen. Tom Carper (D)
27. Utah-Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)
28. California-Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)
29. Wisconsin-Sen. Herb Kohl (D)
30. Wyoming-Sen. Craig Thomas (R)
31. Massachusetts-Sen. Edward Kennedy (D)
32. Mississippi-Sen. Trent Lott (R)
33. Indiana-Sen. Richard Lugar (R)-Like Snowe, you have to wonder if the Democrats had been able to recruit a top notch candidate (like, say, former Rep. Tim Roemer) here, would they be headed to another victory? Considering the loathing of Republicans in Indiana right now, I'd guess yes.
1. Pennsylvania-I toyed with putting this at number two, and a month ago that's where it would have been, but as it is, I am positive of one thing in November: Bob Casey will send the most controversial Republican in the Senate back to Pennsylvania. Liberal activists will rejoice and conservative activists will weep, but Rick Santorum will be sent home after one of the oddest Senate terms in recent memory, where he basically ticked off everyone with a pulse. Casey will certainly be a much-watched senator, the first Democrat elected to a full-term in Pennsylvania since 1962.
2. Montana-This could just as easily be number one, as there is little doubt in my mind that it'll end up going to the challenger, State Senator Jon Tester. Tester has run a rather impressive populist campaign this cycle, especially considering that he's more liberal than the Montana electorate. However, when you're running against an incumbent as scarred as Sen. Conrad Burns, your political ideology might not matter much. With his flannel shirts, blue jeans, and buzz haircut, Tester doesn't look that much like a senator, but come January, he'll be one.
3. Ohio-Who would have thought that Mike DeWine's career would be on its final legs a year ago? Not I, but that's the way it's headed. Sherrod Brown, like Tester, is slightly to the left of the electorate, but that doesn't seem to matter-he's run a superb populist campaign, and appears to be ahead of DeWine. People have often grouped this race with Races Number Five and Seven on this list, but I actually think that this isn't much of a bellwether for Repubicans-any GOP member in Ohio this cycle is running on borrowed time, and DeWine looks to be one of potentially many casualties.
4. Rhode Island-Speaking of borrowed time, any Republican, even if they are as liberal as Sen. Lincoln Chafee, knows that there political career could end at any moment in the bluest state in the nation, Rhode Island. I feel this is the case in Rhode Island this year, as Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse has maintained a small but real lead in the race headed to November. While Whitehouse has an ample base to draw from, Chafee has to deal with dissatisfaction with Bush/Frist/Hastert, the Foleygate, and a lukewarm base brought on by a tough primary in September. Should Whitehouse win this seat in November, expect him to hold it for as long as possible (and for Patrick Kennedy and Jim Langevin to kick themselves for giving up a Senate seat).
5. Missouri-Races 5-7 are where the Senate lies. The first four races, to a lesser or greater degree, favor the challenger (thus theoretically giving the Democrats four seats). The Democrats, however, need a net gain of six seats and still need to hold all of their seats. Should they take seats 5-7, which is a very real possibility at this point, they'll take back the Senate in one of most impressive underdog races I've ever seen.
One of the three races they'll need will be Missouri, and anyone who says that this race leans any way but tossup is just blinded by partisanship. Sen. Jim Talent (R), who filled out a partial term after a special election in 2002, is running his third air-tight race in six years against State Auditor Claire McCaskill. The conventional wisdom here is that McCaskill has a guaranteed 48 percent of the vote, she just needs those last three percent. The latest round of polls show her with a one-two point edge, which may be enough, but I'm reluctant to call anything in this race that has seesawed the entire cycle.
6. Tennessee-I'm going out on a limb and putting this at six when it would be just as easy to put it in position number seven, but like I said, 5-7 are interchangeable. In Bill Frist's open seat (and what's it going to say about his presidential ambitions if he can't hold a red seat in a red state?), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. has been running arguably the best campaign of the cycle, and Mayor Bob Corker has been running the worst. This has led to Ford having a slight lead, despite TN's clear Republican advantage. One has to wonder if and how race will factor in this, as Ford would become the first black man to be elected to the South in the Senate since Reconstruction. In a race this tight, everything from Foley to Gov. Phil Bredeson's (D) coattails to the tempestous turnout battle in Ford's home district could be a factor. If the Democrats win here, they'll have their sixth pickup. That is, if they can hold...
7. New Jersey-Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is easily the most endangered Democrat running for reelection in Congress. Corruption allegations have been slung at him and State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., has turned this into the nastiest Senate battle in the country. If the election had been held two weeks ago, Kean would have been headed to the Senate. As it sits now, it's basically a coin toss. The latest set of polls show that the ball is headed back into Menendez's court, as notoriously fickle NJ Democrats are starting to return to the base in the wake of the Foley scandal. This may be just enough to push Menendez into a full-term in the Senate, but I'm not ready to call it. Like I said, this, as well as Missouri and Tennessee, are the only pure tossups in the Senate races-if the Democrats manage to keep their good fortunes alive, they may take all three and give Harry Reid the majority.
8. Virginia-The following three all have various degrees of advantage for the incumbent, but could potentially fall if the challengers pick up some wind. This one is the most-likely of the three, particularly because it's the only of the three to feature a Republican incumbent. Sen. George Allen has maintained a small, but real lead over Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb. However, Allen's bumbles have been numerous, ranging from macaca comments to ham sandwich jokes, and he's basically ticked off any Democrat who would have potentially crossed over to vote for him. Webb's over $3 million raised in the last quarter will surely help him in the final days, and I suspect that this race will continue to garner bad press for Allen, but this does appear to be the one bright spot on the GOP map at the moment. However, Allen's chances at succeeding Bush went from very bright to nonexistent in the course of this campaign.
9. Maryland-Rep. Ben Cardin (D) is not as exciting as Lt. Governor Michael Steele, but that likely won't matter in the upcoming month. With Republicans everywhere getting a bad rap, Steele's conservatism won't be able to fly in blue state Maryland. The only reason that this race remains in the top ten and hasn't been delegated to the ranks of Vermont/Minnesota is that, aside from the fact that Cardin's recent lead is in fact recent, the question of the black vote is in play here. Will African-Americans turn out in November, even though two prominent African-Americans lost primary races to white men in September? There's no way of knowing, but I suspect that Cardin will be able to get out the vote enough to carry himself to a first-term in the Senate.
10. Washington-I toyed with putting any of the next three races here, but I suspect that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is the most vulnerable of the four. At one point, she seems destined to love to businessman Mike McGavick, but as the race has played out, it seems that Washington doesn't want to send a Republican to D.C., whether or not Cantwell is too moderate for them. Cantwell could still lose this race, particularly if the heat from her involvement with Aaron Dixon continues, but I'm starting to feel that a 7-9 point victory is in order for this accidental senator. Should Cantwell win, she'll likely be able to use her increased seniority over the next six years to establish a better working relationship with WA's Democratic voters, and therefore have easier reelections.
As for the other seats, here they are ranked (I put in some comments, but no in depth commentary, as all of the incumbent parties have a decided edge).
11. Michigan-Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) once looked vulnerable, but Republican troubles will outweigh economic woes in Michigan, and she'll win a second term (and like Cantwell, likely use it to increase voter awareness of herself, as she was also an "accidental" senator).
12. Nebraska-Sen. Ben Nelson (D), as a Democrat in Nebraska, always has to be careful, but should win this race rather handily.
13. Arizona-Sen. Jon Kyl (R) caught a big break when the DSCC decided to shift its funding of Jim Pederson to races like VA, MO, and TN.
14. Minnesota-Succeeding Sen. Mark Dayton (D) will be Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D), as Rep. Mark Kennedy's (R) campaign has set new levels of ineptitude.
15. Vermont-Rep. Bernie Sanders (Independent who will side with the Democrats) looked like he'd have a close call for a second there, but his base has returned and he'll be one of potentially many Democratic freshmen this cycle.
16. West Virginia-Sen. Robert Byrd (D) will take this once competitive race handily. Republicans probably should have targeted this race more, as Byrd's age could have been the Senate equivalent of the Iowa-3 race.
17. Connecticut-This will stay with the Democrats in one way or another (unless Lieberman switches parties, which I doubt will happen), but Joe's Senate run may cause an increased Republican turnout, therefore jeopardizing challengers Farrell, Courtney, and Murphy.
18. Nevada-Certainly no Republican in a mildly competitive race should let his guard down, but Sen. John Ensign's (R) run against Jack Carter in all likelihood will end with a ten point victory for the Republicans.
19. Florida-If Sen. Bill Nelson (D) didn't have it easy enough, polls show that Rep. Katherine Harris's home district will go to a Democrat and Florida will likely be roiled by the Foley scandal most heavily.
20. Maine-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R)-Snowe will almost certainly win, but you have to wonder-if State Senator Michael Brennan or Rep. Tom Allen had run against Snowe this cycle, I suspect that she'd be in the fight of her political life right now.
21. New York-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
22. New Mexico-Sen. Jeff Bingamann (D)
23. Hawaii-Sen. Daniel Akaka (D)
24. Texas-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
25. North Dakota-Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
26. Delaware-Sen. Tom Carper (D)
27. Utah-Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)
28. California-Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)
29. Wisconsin-Sen. Herb Kohl (D)
30. Wyoming-Sen. Craig Thomas (R)
31. Massachusetts-Sen. Edward Kennedy (D)
32. Mississippi-Sen. Trent Lott (R)
33. Indiana-Sen. Richard Lugar (R)-Like Snowe, you have to wonder if the Democrats had been able to recruit a top notch candidate (like, say, former Rep. Tim Roemer) here, would they be headed to another victory? Considering the loathing of Republicans in Indiana right now, I'd guess yes.
Monday, October 02, 2006
House Ups and Downs
Here at a glance, is a list of people who will be moving soon onto our list, moving up it, or falling down from it:
Movin On Up:
Florida-16: No race's dynamics changed faster last week than Mark Foley's race against Tim Mahoney. In a matter of days, a seat that was on no one's radar has suddenly shuttled to the top ten Democratic pickups. I suspect that this race leans Mahoney as it is, and could very well take other Republicans down with it. Which gets me to...
New York-26: John Boehner, John Shimkus, and Dennis Hastert may all be linked to the Foley Scandal, but Tom Reynolds is the only one who has a race that could be potentially divisive. Jack Davis will certainly be bringing up the Foley Scandal, and if the Republicans keep fumbling it (particularly Carl Forti taking Foley's funds), Reynolds could find himself funding his own race.
New Mexico-1: Patricia Madrid has pulled into a tie with Heather Wilson, according to the Research and Polling poll, which is bad news for Wilson. The Dems and the challengers will have an edge, and Wilson may have to fend off the Foley scandal as well, if it continues to target Hastert. Richardson and Bingamann will both have big coattails-this could be magic number fifteen.
Not So Competitive:
Vermont-AL: No new polls, but in the super liberal Vermont-AL district, I doubt a scandal involving the Republican House leadership is going to help Martha Rainville. Of all the vulnerable Democratic seats, a reminder of the Republican leadership is most going to hurt here. Welch should be headed toward Washington soon.
Connecticut-4: Diane Farrell is down in the latest U of Conn poll. One of the Republicans from Connecticut is going down, but will it be Simmons instead of Shays? If Farrell can get this tied by Labor Day, the Democratic wave and the influx of Lamont voters will pull her over the edge, but a five-point deficit will not work well for her.
Pennsylvania-6: Polls show Gerlach taking a lead, and where the hell are Murphy's television ads? The environment, both statewide and nationally, are all there for Lois Murphy-if she loses this race, it is completely her fault.
Movin On Up:
Florida-16: No race's dynamics changed faster last week than Mark Foley's race against Tim Mahoney. In a matter of days, a seat that was on no one's radar has suddenly shuttled to the top ten Democratic pickups. I suspect that this race leans Mahoney as it is, and could very well take other Republicans down with it. Which gets me to...
New York-26: John Boehner, John Shimkus, and Dennis Hastert may all be linked to the Foley Scandal, but Tom Reynolds is the only one who has a race that could be potentially divisive. Jack Davis will certainly be bringing up the Foley Scandal, and if the Republicans keep fumbling it (particularly Carl Forti taking Foley's funds), Reynolds could find himself funding his own race.
New Mexico-1: Patricia Madrid has pulled into a tie with Heather Wilson, according to the Research and Polling poll, which is bad news for Wilson. The Dems and the challengers will have an edge, and Wilson may have to fend off the Foley scandal as well, if it continues to target Hastert. Richardson and Bingamann will both have big coattails-this could be magic number fifteen.
Not So Competitive:
Vermont-AL: No new polls, but in the super liberal Vermont-AL district, I doubt a scandal involving the Republican House leadership is going to help Martha Rainville. Of all the vulnerable Democratic seats, a reminder of the Republican leadership is most going to hurt here. Welch should be headed toward Washington soon.
Connecticut-4: Diane Farrell is down in the latest U of Conn poll. One of the Republicans from Connecticut is going down, but will it be Simmons instead of Shays? If Farrell can get this tied by Labor Day, the Democratic wave and the influx of Lamont voters will pull her over the edge, but a five-point deficit will not work well for her.
Pennsylvania-6: Polls show Gerlach taking a lead, and where the hell are Murphy's television ads? The environment, both statewide and nationally, are all there for Lois Murphy-if she loses this race, it is completely her fault.
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