Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Oscars (ranked from most likely to least likely):

Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Crash
4. Walk the Line
5. Capote
I'm going with the obvious lineup-I'm not feeling Munich, and The Constant Gardener's increase in buzz came too late.

Director
1. Ang Lee
2. George Clooney
3. Bennett Miller
4. Steven Spielberg
5. Fernando Meirelles
The Director Branch has been prone to upsets lately (and so I'm guessing that they go with recent favorite son Meirelles, as well as the beloved Spielberg)

Actor
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman
2. Heath Ledger
3. Joaquin Phoenix
4. David Straitharn
5. Russell Crowe
I'm loathe to predict the obvious lineup, but Crowe has hit every precursor-I think he'll sail in (though I hold out hope that Ralph Fiennes will somehow make it).

Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Felicity Huffman
3. Judi Dench
4. Charlize Theron
5. Zhang Ziyi
Personally, I think that Ziyi and Keira Knightley are in a wire-tight race, but I'm going Ziyi (in a perfect world 4 and 5 would be replaced by Naomi Watts and Q'Orianka Kilcher).

Supporting Actor
1. George Clooney
2. Paul Giamatti
3. Matt Dillon
4. Jake Gyllenhaal
5. Frank Langella
The first three are locks, Gyllenhaal should be a lock, and will likely sneak in. The fifth slot has been completely unpredictable, but I'm going with Frank Langella over Terrence Howard, as Langella has been in Hollywood longer and Howard will split his vote.

Supporting Actress
1. Michelle Williams
2. Rachel Weisz
3. Catherine Keener
4. Frances McDormand
5. Amy Adams
Bello is the odd woman out here-Adams is the new girl on the block (who doesn't love that), Keener is the subtle critical favorite, and McDormand is the oft-nominated one (fourth nomination here).

Original Screenplay
1. Good Night, and Good Luck
2. Crash
3. The Squid and the Whale
4. Match Point
5. Syriana
Syriana's switch may cost it's nomination to some oddball nominee (this could have something like Wallace and Gromit or Mrs. Henderson Presents pop up), but otherwise, these look like a good crop. Crash will win here, and Clooney will take Best Supporting Actor, imo.

Adapted Screenplay
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Capote
3. The Constant Gardener
4. A History of Violence
5. Walk the Line
Fairly standar (lots of Best Picture contenders)-History of Violence or Walk the Line may fall to Munich, but I think that that film has been forgotten by most Oscar voters.

Costume
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Walk the Line
4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
5. The White Countess
The White Countess is my odd-shot nominee-the Costume guilds usually go with some tiny film, and the final Merchant/Ivory may get it.

Animated
1. Wallace and Gromit
2. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
3. Madagascar
I wish it would be Howl's Moving Castle...

Cinematography
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Memoirs of a Geisha (so undeserving)
4. The New World
5. Jarhead
Roger Deakins is my longshot nominee for Jarhead (and this is the first of several nominations that I suspect The New World could receive-it was truly beautiful)-the Academy LOVES him.

Art Direction
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. King Kong
4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
5. Brokeback Mountain
The leading Best Picture nominee always gets a questionable nominee (think Chicago for Cinematography or The Aviator for Supporting Actor)-this will be it for Brokeback. Charlie will be nominated along the lines of The Grinch.

Film Editing
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Walk the Line
4. The Constant Gardener
5. Crash
Gardener is beautifully edited-it will oust Munich or Capote.

Visual Effects
1. King Kong
2. Star Wars Episode 3
3. War of the Worlds
I hope Harry Potter ousts Star Wars or War of the Worlds, but I won't count on it.

Makeup
1. Chronicles of Narnia
2. The New World
3. A History of Violence
I have a sneaking suspicion that The Libertine may sail into this category (they always pick something odd for Best Makeup), but I'm going with these three (Chronicles better start preparing to win this).

Score
1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Brokeback Mountain
3. Cinderella Man
4. King Kong
5. The New World
Williams, Newman, Shore, and Horner are Academy favorites (Santaolalla will be the new member of the club).

Song
1. Transamerica
2. The Producers
3. Crash
4. Hustle and Flow
5. Mad Hot Ballroom
That Brokeback isn't eligible here is a shame.

Sound
1. Walk the Line
2. King Kong
3. Memoirs of a Geisha
4. Brokeback Mountain
5. Munich
Ray proved last year that musical films win here-Walk the Line will take this (though it should go to the eloquent Brokeback).

Sound Effects Editing
1. King Kong
2. War of the Worlds
3. Chronicles of Narnia
Please let HP4 get a nod somewhere!!!

All right, there they are-in about eight hours, we'll find out how wrong I am!

Golden Globes Thoughts

Favorite Quips:

"What kind of parent names their kid Jack when they have off in their last name?"-George Clooney

"Oh my god, I don't remember any of your names." -Sandra Oh (didn't you love Reese helping her to the stage?)

"Well, that didn't actually happen."-Geena Davis (funniest moment of the night)

The whole hot flash speech-S. Epatha Merkerson

"I'd like to thank my typewriter." -Larry McMurtry

Best Dressed: Queen Latifah and Scarlett Johansson

Worst Dressed: Drew Barrymore and Adrien Brody

Nicest win:
1. Rachel Weisz-I, at least, was surprised, and pleasantly so.
2. Reese Witherspoon-She's so adorable.

Why, oh why?:
1 (and only-I didn't mind most of the winners-even the ones who I didn't particularly want I wasn't adamently against). Phillip Seymour Hoffman-Heath Ledger should have that trophy (well, anyone nominated in this category aside from Hoffman deserved this); this fixes it-he's this year's Hilary Swank.

Interesting Notes:
For the second year in a row, the Golden Globe Winner for Best Song won't be nominated at the Oscars-last year this meant that there was an upset-hopefully that will occur again this year.

John Williams won his first Golden Globe in twenty three years (last time was for E.T.)-every time that he has won the Globe, he has gone to win the Oscar.

What it means for the Awards:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman now has the Oscar locked up (and I couldn't be more bummed-the best performance of last year lost to the most overrated performance at the Oscars-this year, it looks set to repeat itself).

I personally think that Felicity Huffman may be a tougher shot at the Oscar than most people realize-her speech was better, imo, than Reese's tonight, and Oscar doesn't always like being told to crown someone-plus the uglification trend could continue.

I think Michelle Williams may be the loser who gained the most tonight-Ledger lost, she looks like the only actor to gain from Brokeback-I could see her taking out Rachel Weisz ala Portman/Blanchett last year.

George Clooney is the new King of Hollywood-all hail!

And finally, a numbers question: who got more thank yous, Ang Lee or Steve Carrell's wife?